Considering The Coming Era Of Agentic Ai: Engaging Foresight To Navigate The Implications For Educators And Education

“The world’s most important and transformative technology will be Ai. It is going to be everything. It’s going to change every industry, every country, every company. Ai is going to be the most powerful tool that mankind has ever invented… And we’re just at the beginning of this journey.” -via Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia

The rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence (Ai) is reshaping and transforming a myriad of different sectors, with education poised to undergo one of its most profound shifts. Meaning that education is no exception and will not be spared the disruptive possibilities accompanying this advancing technology. While Ai’s potential to revolutionize industries is increasingly recognized, its integration into education—particularly the advent of agentic Ai—poses unique challenges and opportunities. Agentic Ai systems, characterized by their ability to make autonomous decisions, adapt to user needs, and engage with humans in increasingly human-like ways, will offer promising innovations for personalized learning, data-driven insights, and educational efficiency. However, it also introduces a range of complexities that educational leaders, policymakers, and educators have to address. The key to navigating this transformation lies not only in understanding the technology itself, but in adopting a proactive stance toward its integration. Central to this preparedness is the concept and practice of foresight—to better anticipate and shape the future of education and learning in response to these emerging technological advancements.

Moving into the forefront of these Ai advancements is agentic Ai, which refers to Ai systems that are capable of independent action, decision-making, and interacting with individuals in ways that mimic human agency. Unlike traditional Ai, which responds to specific inputs or follows pre-programmed instructions, agentic Ai learns from interactions, adapts to user preferences, and evolves based on data. This opens up a new realm of possibilities for education, offering the potential to personalize learning, support diverse student needs, and enhance teacher effectiveness. As Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia adds, “The dream of Ai is not just about machine intelligence but also about giving these machines the ability to perform actions in the world… that’s going to open up new possibilities.”

For instance, agentic Ai systems could assess a student’s progress, identify learning gaps, and tailor content to suit their individual pace and style. Moreover, Ai could help automate administrative tasks, giving educators more time to focus on learning, teaching and student engagement. However, while these advancements hold great promise, they also bring with them a host of challenges for educators, educational leaders, schools, districts, communities, and policymakers, ranging from ethical considerations to the social implications of widespread Ai use in the classroom.

The first step in leveraging Ai’s potential in education is creating greater awareness across our educational systems, from the classroom to the boardroom. Educational leaders, policymakers, and educators must deepen their understanding not only of the capabilities of Ai, but also the profound implications it may have on teaching practices, student outcomes, and the broader educational ecosystem. As Ai continues to evolve, it is essential for educators to recognize its potential to transform classrooms, while also acknowledging the disruptions it may cause. These disruptions may manifest themselves in systems integration, new pedagogical approaches, and the introduction of new ethical dilemmas, such as data privacy and Ai bias.

To successfully integrate Ai into education, a proactive approach is necessary. This approach includes understanding the technology itself and anticipating its impact on educational systems. Rather than waiting to react as Ai unfolds, educational leaders must take intentional steps to shape its role in the classroom and across the system. This shift from a reactive to a proactive stance is crucial, as it allows stakeholders to guide the direction of Ai’s integration while addressing its potential challenges head-on. As Thomas Friedman shares, “In the future, being able to work alongside machines, especially Ai, will be a critical skill. We need to prepare our students not just for jobs, but for lifelong learning in an Ai-enabled world.”

While not as prevalent in the educator and educational leadership vernacular, one of the most valuable tools for creating insights into navigating the complexities of Ai in education will be found in the practice of foresight. Foresight is the process of anticipating future trends, technological developments, and societal shifts, and preparing for them strategically. In the context of Ai, foresight involves identifying early signals (weak and strong) of change, understanding the risks and opportunities posed by emerging technologies, and planning for the integration of Ai in ways that are both ethical and effective.

For educators and policymakers, foresight allows for delving into a deeper understanding of the potential impact of Ai on various aspects of education and learning in the future. By examining the broader cultural, social, and pedagogical implications of Ai, foresight enables decision-makers to shape policy that not only supports the effective use of Ai but also safeguards against its potential negative consequences. This proactive approach is essential for ensuring that Ai enhances rather than detracts from the educational experience.

Foresight also plays a key role in utilizing scenario planning to better prepare for a variety of futures. By considering multiple future scenarios—ranging from the widespread adoption of Ai tools to the potential risks associated with their misuse—educators and policymakers can develop strategies that are flexible and adaptive in their integration approach. This foresight-driven approach equips educators, educational leaders, and policy makers with the tools they need to navigate an Ai-driven future, ensuring that educational systems are better prepared for a variety of possible outcomes. Or as Sal Khan shares, “The future of education is personalized, driven by technology. But it’s not about replacing teachers, it’s about enabling them to be more effective and help students reach their potential.”

As AI continues to permeate the educational environment, it will bring with it a host of ethical, social, and pedagogical challenges. Educators will need to grapple with questions of data privacy, algorithmic bias, and the potential for Ai to reinforce existing inequalities. Moreover, there is the concern that Ai could undermine the core human elements of teaching, such as empathy, creativity, and relationship-building. As Ginni Rometty, former CEO of IBM adds, “The biggest challenge with Ai isn’t the technology, it’s understanding the implications and making sure we put it to good use.”

Foresight can help educators anticipate these challenges and develop practices, strategies, and frameworks for addressing them. For example, by considering the ethical implications of Ai early on, educational leaders can implement policies that prioritize transparency, accountability, and fairness in Ai systems, as well in policy. Foresight also enables educators to think critically about how Ai might alter teaching methods and student-teacher interactions, ensuring that the human aspects of education are preserved even as technology begins to play a greater role in education.

Furthermore, foresight encourages educators to stay informed about emerging trends in Ai and technology, ensuring that they are not caught off guard by new developments. This ongoing awareness will be crucial in maintaining a balance between technological innovation and the values that underpin education, such as equity, inclusivity, and student well-being.

The arrival of agentic AI (one of those emerging technological trends in Ai) in education presents both challenges and opportunities. However, through foresight, educational leaders can shape the future of education in a way that maximizes the benefits of Ai while addressing its potential risks. By anticipating technological shifts, understanding the implications of Ai, and planning for its integration, educators, educational leaders and policymakers can ensure that Ai serves as a positive force in education. As author and computer scientist Jaron Lanier shares,“We are at a crossroads where Ai could be a tool for empowerment, but it could also turn into something we don’t control…”

Rather than reacting to AI’s arrival as it unfolds, foresight empowers the education sector to proactively guide its integration. This means shaping policies that support ethical AI use, designing curricula that incorporate AI-driven tools effectively, and providing professional development opportunities for educators to navigate this new and emerging technological landscape. Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that AI enhances educational experiences for all students, enabling them to learn and grow in a rapidly changing world while preserving the human qualities that are fundamental to education.

Which aligns well in supporting California’s recently signed bill (AB 2876), which is aimed at integrating Artificial Intelligence (Ai) into the K-12 and higher education systems (tools, technology, and curriculum). The bill is part of an effort to prepare students for the future of work, where Ai is expected to play a major role. Here are some of the key points of this California bill:

1. Ai Education in K-12 Curriculumthe bill mandates that Ai literacy be integrated into the state’s K-12 education curriculum, which includes ensuring students are taught fundamental concepts about Ai, its applications, and its ethical implications.

2. Ai Curriculum Developmentthe bill encourages the development and implementation of Ai-focused curricula to teach students the basics of Ai, its ethical implications, and its potential on various industries as it aims to prepare students for a future where Ai plays a significant role in the workforce.

3. Teacher Training and Resourcesthe bill emphasizes the need to train educators on how to teach Ai concepts effectively and integrate Ai into their teaching methods, which includes providing teachers with resources, workshops, and ongoing professional development.

4. Ethical and Responsible Ai Usethe bill includes provisions to ensure that Ai is used ethically in education, particularly in terms of data privacy, security, and avoiding bias in Ai algorithms, and encourages students to consider the societal impacts of Ai technology.

5. Equity and Accessibilitythe bill stresses the importance of ensuring equitable access to Ai resources for all students, regardless of socioeconomic status or geographic location, including addressing disparities in technology access and providing funding to under-resourced schools.

6. Preparation for the Workforcethe long-term goal is to prepare students for careers in Ai and technology fields, which includes both technical jobs, as well as non-technical jobs where Ai tools are used in industries such as healthcare, business, law, and the arts. 

7: Student Access to Ai Toolsthe bill emphasizes making Ai tools accessible for hands-on learning, which could involve using Ai-powered software, creating opportunities for project-based learning, and exposing students to Ai technologies they may encounter in real-world careers.

8. Pilot Programs and Innovation: in addition to the broad curriculum changes, the bill supports the development of pilot programs in schools to experiment with innovative Ai teaching methods, which can provide a testing ground curriculum improvements and educational technologies.

The overall intention behind the bill is to give students in California a strong foundation in AI, not just from a technical standpoint, but also in terms of ethical understanding and the impact of AI on society. This aligns with the state’s broader efforts to stay at the forefront of technological innovations while ensuring that its residents are equipped with the skills needed for an AI-driven future. As Assemblymember Marc Berman adds in a news release, “AI has the potential to positively impact the way we live, but only if we know how to use it, and use it responsibly. Children and young people today must navigate a world — and job market — transformed by fast-moving AI technology. We have a responsibility to ensure that all students, no matter their future profession, understand basic AI principles and applications, that they have the skills to recognize when AI is employed, and are aware of AI’s implications, limitations, and ethical considerations. This new law will equip all California students with the skills and training they need to be safe, ethical, and successful users of AI as it becomes more mainstream.”

And as Fei-Fei Li, Co-Director of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Ai adds, “We need to teach the next generation of students not just how to use technology, but how to understand it, how to think critically about it, and how to use it to enhance human flourishing.”

In many ways, the key points of this California bill (AB 2876) aligns with how we can begin to proactively prepare educators and educational leaders for the coming impact of an Ai subfield, such as agentic AiBeginning with considering some of the following:

1. Building Ai Literacyto prepare for the possible coming era of agentic Ai, educators must first build a basic understanding of Ai technologies. This includes not only understanding how Ai works, but also grasping its potential ethical, social, and pedagogical implications. Professional learning and development programs should focus on Ai literacy, empowering teachers to integrate Ai tools effectively, and assess their impact on the classroom. This will also include educators needing to understand the ethical challenges Ai introduces, including issues around data privacy, algorithmic bias, and the potential for technology to disrupt traditional educational models.

2. Integrating Ai into PedagogyAi should be seen as a tool that complements, rather than replaces, traditional pedagogical practices. Educators can use Ai-driven tools to personalize instruction while maintaining their role as facilitators and guides to enhance learning. So, while an intelligent tutoring system might help students master a particular skill, the educator’s role could shift to fostering higher-order thinking and encouraging creativity. To support teachers in integrating Ai into their teaching, professional learning and development programs could provide opportunities for experimentation and hands-on experience with Ai tools. Collaboration between educators and Ai developers will be essential to ensure that these tools align with educational values and meet the specific needs of students and teachers. Which has not always been the case with integration of technology.

3. Advocating for Ethical Ai ImplementationAs Ai becomes more integrated into education, educators must advocate for ethical practices in its implementation. This involves ensuring that Ai systems are designed with fairness, transparency, and equity in mind. Teachers should have opportunity to be involved in the decision-making processes surrounding Ai adoption, helping to ensure that Ai tools align with the educational values of equity, inclusivity, and student well-being.

4. Supporting Lifelong LearningGiven the accelerated pace of Ai development, educators will need to embrace lifelong learning to stay current with technological advancements. Continuous professional learning and development focused on Ai, data science, and educational technology will be crucial for teachers to remain effective in their roles. As with educators, lifelong learning will also be essential for students, as they must be prepared to thrive in a world increasingly influenced and enabled by Ai.

As Reid Hoffman, Co-founder of LinkedIn reminds, “The challenge with Ai integration is not just about scaling technology – it’s about making sure the structures we have in place can keep up with the pace of innovation and handle the disruptions that will come.”

The emergence of agentic Ai offers significant opportunities to enhance personalized learning, increase operational efficiency, and support educators in their efforts to meet the diverse needs of students. However, its integration into education also presents important ethical and pedagogical challenges, particularly in terms of bias, over-reliance on technology, and changing teacher-student dynamics. Chris Anderson, Head of TED reminds us that, “The biggest challenge with Ai is figuring out the right balance between enabling it to do great things and ensuring it doesn’t go off the rails. We must consider the ethical, social, and psychological impacts.”

To prepare for the coming era of agentic Ai, educators must prioritize Ai literacy, engage with Ai tools thoughtfully, embrace new pedagogical approaches, and advocate for the ethical use and integration of Ai in education. By doing so, educators can harness the power of Ai to enhance the learning experience while maintaining the human-centered values that have long been the foundation of effective education. As AI continues to evolve, it is essential that educators embrace change, adapt their practices, and remain focused on the ultimate goal: ensuring that students receive an education that is equitable, engaging, and empowering, in the face of an increasingly AI-driven world.

“What we’re seeing is the start of a new era, where Ai is no longer just a tool, but a partner in every sense of the word.” -via Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia

Preparing Our Youth For The Ambiguous and Uncertain Future of Work With Imagination and Foresight: Understanding How Automation And Ai Will Have Impact On Education

“What’s the point of education if it doesn’t prepare you to adapt to the rapidly changing world.” -Sir Ken Robinson

The future of work should be a critical concern, and in many ways, also a unique responsibility, especially for educators and educational leaders (as well as students, families, communities, etc.), because the rapid pace of technological, social, and economic changes will directly impact how students experience their careers and lives. As society and the world rapidly (and sometimes turbulently) changes, it’s essential that young people have opportunity to develop the skills, mindsets, and adaptability required to thrive in an uncertain and dynamic job market, which makes the future of work both a challenge and an opportunity for schools, districts, and the educational system. By focusing on adaptable skills, fostering lifelong learning, addressing equity gaps, and encouraging ethical and entrepreneurial thinking, the educational system can ensure that students are not just ready for the future of work, but are equipped to shape it in a way that benefits individuals, industries, and society.

One of the most important things that the educational system needs to understand about the future of work is that the pace of change is accelerating, and as a result, the nature of work itself is rapidly evolving. 

This means that the skills, knowledge, and mindsets that students need to thrive in the workforce are constantly shifting, as well. What we are seeing is that the future of work will be shaped by rapid technological advancements, requiring students to be adaptable, tech-savvy, and equipped with both technical and just as importantly, soft (human) skills. The educational system really must begin to prepare students for careers that may not yet exist (a mantra we’ve heard for years, but is quickly evolving into a dynamic reality), while ensuring they can work alongside automation, Ai, and other technology and technological tools in a flexible, ethical, and responsible way. So, not only must the educational system prepare students for the specific careers that exist today (as well as those that don’t yet exist), it must also begin to equip them with the adaptability, lifelong learning habits, and the ability to navigate a world of rapid and continuous change. 

This becomes especially important, as we witness the world of work transforming under such dynamic shifts as automation, artificial intelligence, skills obsolescence, and even gig and remote work. From these shifts we see that some jobs are disappearing, while other and new ones are appearing, and the same goes for skills, skillsets, capacities, and competencies. And it is not just that change is accelerating, it is that change remains constant companion alongside that acceleration. Meaning that the future we are preparing for, may look drastically different from the one we are inhabiting today – remind us that nothing stays static for very long, and the ability to learn and evolve will be mandatory in this non-obvious future we are facing and moving towards.

And feigning certainty in the face of uncertainty will not take us where we need to go…

Rather, we are going to need to ask questions, deeper and more difficult questions than we’ve asked in the past. If we really want to change, to take on the heavy lift of real transformation, we are going to need to ask questions that we are currently not asking of ourselves and of our organizations. We are going to have to deeply determine what questions we need to be asking, that we currently have not even considered or are not yet asking. Whether we are ready to tackle them or not… 

Be assured, this is not just about reimagining (a term that has risen in significance in organizations, and thereby become somewhat meaningless along the way), but incorporating imagination and foresight as strategic resources to drive the process of transformation forward. In the same way we have had to come to grips with soft (human) skills being as or even more important than the hard skills, we will have to see how imagination and foresight need to be incorporated and engaged, both as individual and organizational skillsets moving forward, if we are to better prepare our youth for very non-obvious future. 

Imagination is increasingly being recognized as a key driver of innovation, creativity, and strategic thinking (which in most organizations, would have been unheard of ten years ago). As the world changes rapidly, the ability to envision new possibilities and think outside of the core and beyond the status quo has become an essential resource for leaders, entrepreneurs, and individuals, as well as teams and organizations. As Albert Einstein previously shared, “Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world, stimulating progress, giving birth to evolution.” Or as John Maeda adds, “Imagination allows us to perceive reality in new ways and unlocks the potential to solve problems that once seemed insurmountable.” For what seemed insignificant (imagination) in organizations not too far back, we are quickly watching it become a crucial asset to the creative, innovative, and strategic processes that lead to new possibilities for the future. 

By incorporating imagination as a strategic resource into educational planning, educators and educational leaders can unlock the vast potential for creativity, innovation, problem-solving, adaptability, and forward-thinking practices in decision-making, curriculum design, and community engagement. Imagination is not just about creativity in the traditional sense; it is about envisioning possibilities, breaking free from established boundaries, and generating new and better solutions to rising adaptive challenges that are being faced. 

Imagination allows educators and students to think beyond current limitations and create learning spaces that encourage exploration and experimentation (spaces that are often limited or missing in many educational environments). Imagination allows educational leaders to paint a bold compelling vision of what education can be in the future. It can help shape the long-term vision of a school, district, or educational system, as educators should not only plan for current needs but also imagine future possibilities and how education can evolve in response to societal, technological, and environmental changes. 

By imagining a transformed educational system, leaders can identify new opportunities, reimagine learning experiences, and ensure schools are preparing students for an uncertain, evolving world. A future, forward-thinking approach can help schools and districts to anticipate the kinds of environments educators and students will need to thrive in the future, such as flexible, technology-enabled, and collaborative spaces. 

The future of education will likely be shaped by these unpredictable forces – so leveraging imagination can help schools and educational systems anticipate and adapt to these changes in meaningful ways. Futures thinking encourages educators and educational leaders to explore how current trends and emerging technologies might shape future realities (foresight). By integrating this thinking into the curriculum, educational leaders can ensure students are prepared for challenges and opportunities that may arise. Tools and processes such as scenario planning and storytelling are powerful ways to encourage imaginative thinking to visualize different futures and consider how our decisions and actions of today might then shape these outcomes. All of which foster a greater sense of empathy, critical thinking, and the ability to think through multiple possibilities. 

Imagination thrives in diverse, collaborative environments where different perspectives come together to solve problems and is often sparked by exposure to diverse perspectives and thinking. Educational leaders should encourage cross-disciplinary collaboration, which can allow for more expansive and diverse thinking to evolve and emerge, as well as allowing space for people’s creativity to be brought to the problem, from different angles, in working with peers from different backgrounds and disciplines.

Imagination requires the freedom to fail and the courage to explore new ideas (experimentation and discovery learning). It thrives in environments that encourage experimentation, risk-taking, and failure as part of the learning process. Educators and educational leaders can strategically plan for these types of environments, and cultivate a culture where creativity is valued and where everyone feels safe and empowered to explore, make and learn from mistakes, and innovate. 

While we don’t often touch on imagination and data in the same space, imagination doesn’t exist in a vacuum; it needs to be informed by data and an understanding of current and emerging trends. Educational leaders should use data to anticipate future trends in the workforce, technology, and society, and then use their imagination to engage in creating proactive solutions to these adaptive challenges. 

Whereas, in accompanying imagination, foresight provides processes and ability to anticipate and prepare for future possibilities and challenges. It’s a key quality for strategic thinking, innovation, and leadership; helping individuals, teams and organizations navigate uncertainty and create more sustainable and impactful futures. As it is best to remember that the decisions we make in the present, not only affect the present, but will have deep ramifications and implications for the future. Foresight allows us to peer out into the horizon, looking for those weak and strong signals of what is or may be coming. Horizon scanning that can help us make better decisions in the now, that can lead to a better, or more preferable future. As FEMA shares in their Strategic Foresight Initiative, “Forecasting is the development of plausible and varied future scenarios. It is not predicting, but rather narrating a wide range of potential future conditions. This iterative imagining of potential futures strives to encompass the extensive realm of uncertainty around future change. The key requirement of successful forecasting is imagination. The uncertainty facing emergency management is vast, and an effective tool for preparing for such unknowns is unhindered creativity in imagining the realm of the possible.” 

In that way, foresight plays a crucial role for educators as a process for enabling them to anticipate the skills, mindsets, and tools that will be needed in an ever-evolving and non-obvious future. By staying ahead of trends in technology, business, and society, educators can consider those skills and mindsets that will be needed in the future by our students, allowing them to integrate critical thinking, creativity, digital literacy, futures literacy, emotional intelligence, and adaptability into the curriculum and learning.

By using foresight to anticipate and analyze future trends, educators can ensure they are not just teaching students the facts of today but preparing them with the tools and mindsets they will need to adapt and thrive moving forward. Foresight empowers educators to design curriculum that is adaptable, forward-thinking, and closely aligned with the skills and competencies that will be in demand, helping students succeed more positively and effectively in an uncertain and ever-evolving work environment. As Jane McGonigal puts forward, “The more we imagine the future, the more we can create it. And the better prepared we will be to fact it when it arrives.”

In a time when it is essential for educational leaders to create adaptive, forward-thinking, futures literate educational systems, incorporating foresight into those planning processes supports considerations of how to better prepare students for the current uncertainty of the future. Foresight helps educators and educational leaders to better anticipate future trends, assess potential challenges, and leverage emerging opportunities to shape a resilient and relevant educational environment. Especially when it is crucial to move away from reactivity towards determining a much more proactive stance towards the future. 

Educators can begin by regularly engaging in strategic scanning of the external environment to identify emerging trends that could possibly or eventually have impact and effect on students and education futures. This could include technological innovations, societal shifts, labor market changes, policy developments and societal/global shifts and events. 

But it doesn’t end with horizon scanning, foresight includes creating a culture where innovation is embraced, and adaptability is built into the organizational mindset. Educational leaders should foster an environment that values creative problem-solving, flexibility, and preparing both staff and students for rapid change. Furthermore, every planning process should be underpinned by a long-term vision for education. Educational leaders should align their decisions with the needs of future generations, emphasizing a forward-facing approach that prioritizes adaptability, lifelong learning, and skill development that aligns with the constantly evolving future of work. 

However, foresight also requires an external perspective. Educational leaders can continue to build partnerships with industry, business, institutions, and government, to gain insight into future needs and innovations. These collaborations can help bridge the gap between what is taught in schools and the skills that will be needed in the workforce, both today and tomorrow. 

Foresight also involves creating different scenarios based on current data and trends. Educational leaders can use data analytics and forecasting tools to create multiple possible future scenarios and plan for various contingencies. This can support schools and districts to better prepare for uncertainty (proactive), whether that involves changing workforce demands, technological disruptions, or shifting societal needs. 

Educators and educational leaders should always be working to ensure that the curriculum is constantly evolving to integrate future-ready competencies that will be important in the world of work. This includes skills such as critical thinking, creativity, digital literacy, futures literacy, global citizenship, and emotional intelligence – skills that will help students adapt to future challenges and opportunities. 

Finally, including students in the foresight process will be vital and beneficial. By involving students in discussions about their future careers, the challenges they might face, and the skills they’ll need, educators can create an active learning environment that prepares them for the future. By integrating foresight into their planning processes, educational leaders can create more resilient and adaptive educational systems that better prepare students for the challenges and opportunities of the future. By anticipating trends, fostering innovation, collaborating with external partners, and embedding future-ready skills into the curriculum, they can ensure that their schools, districts, students, families, and communities are not only prepared for the future – they can actively shape it. As Jane McGonigal shares, “The most powerful thing we can do to prepare for the future is to engage in activities that help us imagine new possibilities. Whether through games, simulations, or storytelling, creating new futures is how we create new realities.” For which she adds, “By imagining the future in multiple, unexpected ways, we build the mental flexibility we need to thrive in times of rapid change.”

Both imagination and foresight, as we can see, will both be important as tools, abilities, competencies, and mindsets, as we begin to prepare our students, parents, communities, schools, districts, and systems for a future of work that is not as obvious now, as it might have been in the past.

While foresight helps us gaze into the future, it does not attempt to predict the future. So, as we consider the shifts that seem to be having the greatest impact on the future of work, it is with the realization that disruption change could be hiding right around the corner. 

But for now, let’s work with the trends and signals, both weak and strong, that seem to be moving at us with the most impact moving forward.

First, and probably foremost, which stands out as being the most significant shift having the greatest effect on the future of work is the rise of automation and artificial intelligence (Ai). This technological transformation (disruption) is reshaping industries, job roles, and the very nature of work itself. Ai and automation are not only automating repetitive and manual tasks, but also enhancing decision-making, creativity, and even interactions. What is even more interesting, is that the effects of this shift are already seen as profound, and we are still only in, what many say are the earliest stages of what is possible. Making us continuously need to consider (scanning the horizon for weak and strong signals) of what may or will be the ramifications of those coming possibilities. 

For now, here are some key impacts of Ai and automation on the future of work:

The adoption of Ai and automation represents the most significant and far-reaching shift affecting the future of work. It’s not just altering individual roles but reshaping entire industries, societal norms, and the global economy. While the transition presents challenges – especially related to job displacement and reskilling – it also offers enormous potential for innovation, productivity, and new job creation. As we continue to integrate Ai into work processes, the ability to adapt and leverage these technologies will be key to success in the future of work. Ultimately, we will have to decide how we will let these tools shape us and our future. As Kai-Fu Lee shares, “Automation will not only be a tool for transforming productivity, but it will also shape human potential by enabling people to do work that adds value.”

As educators and educational systems, we can’t ignore the impact that automation and artificial intelligence will have on our students, both now and in the future. Beginning with its impact on job roles and industries, from healthcare to truck drivers, realizing these shifts and trends can help guide students in selecting career paths and educational paths that are more resilient to automation, and for now, Ai. Educating students about emerging fields will also become increasingly important moving forward. As Marc Benioff of Salesforce shares, “We’re not going to have fewer jobs; we’re going to have different jobs. It’s just a matter of whether we’re able to make the transition and reskill ourselves.”

Automation and Ai are demanding that our youth become more adaptable and continuously aware of and updating their skills, skillsets, and competencies, especially as new tools, platforms, and technologies emerge. It all emphasizes and importance for lifelong learning and a mindset of continuous improvement and growth, as well as the ability to work alongside and augment our abilities with these technological skills. Future workers will need to be able to pivot quickly, stay current with trends in their industry, and learn new technologies as they emerge. As Jensen Huang of Nvidia adds, “Ai doesn’t replace humans; it enables humans to do what they do best: solve problems.”

Which necessitates the growing importance of digital literacy, especially as automation and artificial intelligence are deeply intertwined with digital technologies, making digital literacy a foundational skill in the future of work. Whether basic technical skills, understanding how Ai works, the principles of Ai and machine learning, data science, privacy concerns, biases of algorithms, or the ethical implications of Ai, understanding and awareness will all be crucial moving forward. By incorporating digital literacy across all subjects, educators can help students develop a mindset that is both tech-savvy and ethically informed. As educator R.W. Fountain shares, “Digital literacy is no longer optional; it is a necessity for success in the 21st century.”

And the effect of automation and artificial intelligence doesn’t end there, as it will continue to permeate our mindsets and skillsets, from critical thinking and problem solving, to creativity and innovation, emotional intelligence and collaboration, and technical proficiency and entrepreneurial thinking. To successfully prepare students, educators must first develop their own awareness and understanding of automation and artificial intelligence. By understanding the potential impact of these technologies will have on jobs, fostering key mindsets such as adaptability and creativity, and providing students with the technical and emotional skills needed to thrive, educators can ensure that students are not only better prepared for the future, but capable of considering how to shape it. As automation and artificial intelligence continue to evolve, so too must our approaches to learning and education, ensuring that the workforce of tomorrow is equipped to navigate an increasingly complex and automated world.

And while the focus above was on automation and artificial intelligence, because of the dynamic and disruptive impact it is presently evoking across the future of work, there are a variety of other shifts that are also creating their own effect on the future: from remote and hybrid work models, the gig economy and freelance work, including more recent focuses on well-being and mental health, as well as upskilling, reskilling, and lifelong learning. The future is changing in some dynamic and often unforeseen ways, alongside a plethora of shifts that are currently making their mark and creating change across all of society.

 We have to start somewhere, and foresight can be a process that provides a greater awareness of, and imagination can serve as a strategic resource for new possibilities towards considering how we engage in the heavy lift of transformation. Both are necessary and needed moving forward, especially as we consider the shifts and possible disruptions that lay on the horizon and beyond. There is a lot of work to be done, and a lot of possibilities to be considered. 

But, as Otto Scharmer shares, first, “How do we become aware?”

“In the face of significant uncertainty, imagination is a tool of risk mitigation. Foresight provides a framework to operationalize the asset of our collective creativity.” –FEMA Strategic Foresight Initiative

Deepening Our Understanding And Consideration Of Transition Design: Taking A Dive Into An Approach To Improve And Transform Systems

“A new, design-led approach is needed to address the complex, wicked problems confronting societies in the 21st century and to seed and catalyze societal transitions toward more sustainable and desirable long-term futures.” -Terry Irwin via The Emerging Transition Design Approach

As our organizations, systems and the world face unprecedented environmental, social, and technological challenges and change, we find the need for systems thinking and transformative change becoming more and more necessary, and even urgent. A framework and/or approach that has gained significant traction, but remains obscure and often resides under the radar, is known as Transition Design. This framework or approach developed by designers Terry Irwin and Cameron Tonkinwise focuses on guiding society towards long-term, sustainable futures by addressing the root causes of complex or “wicked” problems and facilitating systemic transformations. 

To expand upon that, Irwin shares in the paper The Emerging Transition Design Approach“Complex, wicked problems are “systems” problems, meaning they are ill-defined, exist at multiple scales, and are interconnected and interdependent. Wicked problems are continually evolving and cannot be solved by a single solution from a single expert, discipline, or profession. Most significantly, these types of problems took a long time to become “wicked” and will therefore take a long time to resolve.” In this design approach, the focus lies on creating pathways for deep, systemic change in complex societal systems. Meaning that it can play a crucial role in addressing system challenges in education, especially in a world where those traditional educational models are being increasingly challenged by the dynamic and growing levels and intensity of technological, societal, and environmental shifts.

As Irwin shares, being central to the Transition Design approach, is a focus on addressing complex, systemic challenges by encouraging long-term, transformative change that emphasizes “four “key” areas of co-evolving knowledge and skillsets” that work within or are often applied in an iterative, cyclical manner. Each of these areas plays a critical role in guiding practitioners through the multifaceted, non-linear processes of transition, while promoting deep systemic change…

Here is an overview of those four key areas of co-evolving knowledge and skillsets:

Visions for Transitions: are often forward-looking and aspirational representations of the future. Offering guiding images of a desired world where we focus on imagining and articulating desirable futures. It involves creating long-term, transformative visions that guide the direction of change. These visions help stakeholders align on shared goals for sustainable and equitable futures. These visions serve as the foundation for all transformation efforts, helping to align stakeholders and inspire collective action.

  • Purpose: the vision provides direction and focus, enabling individuals, teams, organizations and communities to understand the broad, long-term goals they are striving for. It serves as a compass, aligning individual and collective actions towards a common purpose.
  • Characteristics: a robust vision is one that is holistic, systemic, and inclusive. These visions are narrative-driven, emphasizing stories that resonate emotionally and meaningfully with diverse audiences, moving us toward that holistic, systemic, and inclusive approach to visions.
  • Evolving Nature: visions are not fixed, but dynamic and adaptable. As new insights emerge and societal conditions evolve, the vision must be revisited and refined, as an ongoing process. The future, in this sense, is always in motion, and the vision must allow for flexibility and learning, which will evoke change.
  • Challenges: The process of creating a shared vision requires overcoming and/or working with ideological, political, and cultural barriers or challenges, particularly when those involved have divergent views. Facilitating a consensus and navigating these differences is a key skill in visioning work.

Theories of Change: describes how change is expected to happen and then offers a roadmap to move from the current state to the desired state. In Transition Design, these theories are neither linear or simplistic; instead, they are often complex, flexible frameworks that help guide action(s) by identifying interventions, leverage points, and systems dynamics. This involves and requires understanding and developing pathways for how change can occur. It includes mapping out the steps, processes, and interventions necessary to achieve the vision. Therefore, theories of change help in identifying leverage points and strategies aimed at creating lasting impact.

  • Purpose: theories of change help us to map the relationship between our actions and outcomes, by answering such questions as: “What needs to change?” “How do we get there?” and “What strategies will be most effective?” Questions that can guide decision-making and help us assess progress over time.
  • Systems Thinking: a key component of transition theories is that they are systems-oriented nature. Change is understood to occur within dynamic, interconnected systems, where small interventions in one area can ripple out to have larger systemic effects. As a result, these theories are focused on understanding feedback loops, unintended consequences, and emergent properties that occur within the system.
  • Iterative Process: much like “visions” from above, theories of change are never static. They require ongoing evaluation and refinement as real-world context and conditions, as well as new insights emerge. The theory must be flexible enough to accommodate new data and feedback from the interventions.
  • Multiple Pathways to Change: transition theories, unlike traditional linear models, recognize that complex organizational and societal transformations require a diversity of approaches and actors working across multiple scales (local, regional, global) and sectors. Which is not always a familiar or engaged stance in the educational sector.
  • Challenges: a key challenge in developing a theory of change is identifying the most effective points of intervention in a complex system, as well as determining how to leverage limited resources most effectively. The unpredictable nature of large-scale systemic change means that outcomes may not always be immediately measurable or observable. Which can be another challenge, especially when leadership chooses or focuses on short-term wins over long-term sustainable change and transformation.

Posture and Mindset: the posture and mindset required for transition design refer to the attitudes, values, and ways of thinking (as well as behaviors) that must be cultivated in order to engage more effectively in long-term transformative processes. Approaching this work with an emphasis on the importance of adopting a reflective, open, and adaptive mindset. As well as cultivating an attitude of humility, curiosity, and collaboration. It is in. understanding that change is complex and requires flexibility in our approach, as well as staying engaged and committed to the long-term process of transformation.

  • Reflective Practice: requires engaging in continuous reflection, not just upon actions, but also on our assumptions, values, and systems within which we are working. This self-awareness allows us to recognize biases, adjust strategies, and stay attuned to evolving contexts and conditions as they emerge.
  • Humility and Openness: to be effective, we have to acknowledge the limits of our knowledge and expertise. When we recognize that transitions are collaborative processes involving diverse stakeholders, each with their own perspectives and expertise, we understand that this work will require a willingness to listen, learn from others, and co-create solutions, rather than imposing top-down solutions.
  • Adaptive Mindset: transition design, as is most transformative work, a messy, and non-linear process. We must be prepared for unexpected challenges and outcomes, and to be comfortable with ambiguity (even though our minds crave certainty). An adaptive mindset is key to navigating setbacks and adjusting strategies as conditions change.
  • Collaboration: a fundamental shift in mindset involves seeing design as a collective endeavor. In transition design there is a focus to approach the work with a collaborative, interdisciplinary spirit, engaging stakeholders across the organization, as well as sectors, disciplines, and communities to create more inclusive, diverse, and sustainable futures.
  • Challenges: the mindset of flexibility and adaptation can be difficult to maintain, especially when faced with bureaucracy, entrenched power structures, limited or limiting visions, or urgent crisis. Additionally, you may encounter frustration when progress seems slow or when stakeholders are resistant to change. Maintaining a balance between optimism and realism is crucial to the process, as well as for keeping a long-term, sustainable focus.

New Ways of Designing: transition design is not just about creating a product, support, or service; it is also in creating systems, policies, cultural shifts, and infrastructures that support long-term change and transformation. Which includes focusing on innovative design methodologies that integrate systems thinking, collaborative processes, and participatory approaches. To engage in innovative design practices that go beyond traditional approaches, to ones that encourage systemic, holistic thinking that takes in consideration of the broader context, including social, environmental, and economic factors. To incorporating new ways of designing that then prioritize collaborative, participatory, and iterative methods to co-create solutions.

  • Systems-Oriented Design: new ways of designing in the context of transitions requires a deep understanding of systems dynamics. This means considering the broader context in which a design intervention will take place, understanding how different elements of the system interact, and designing with an awareness of long-term, far-reaching impacts. Solutions are less about isolated fixes and more about creating conditions for broad-scale, systemic change.
  • Co-Design and Participatory Practices: transition design emphasizes the importance of co-design – designing with people, rather than for them (which is reminiscent of the mantra of doing education with them, rather than to them). This approach engages stakeholders at all levels, from local communities to policymakers, to ensure that solutions are contextually relevant, culturally sensitive, and collectively owned. These participatory design processes also help foster greater agency and empowerment among communities.
  • Tools and Methods: the “new ways of designing” encompass a wide range of tools and methods, including scenario planning, visioning, prototyping, and system mapping. These tools enable the testing of ideas, visualizing alternative futures, and prototyping interventions in real-world settings.
  • Challenges: transition design, as we are discovering, challenges traditional notions of design. The complexity of systemic problems means that design interventions are not always easy to plan or implement. Often requiring us to grapple with competing interests, diverse stakeholder perspectives, and the unpredictable nature of large-scale change.

These four areas of co-evolving knowledge and skillsets are deeply interconnected in the Transition Design approach. Together, they can provide the foundation for a transformative approach to addressing complex challenges and/or “wicked” problems. The Transition Design framework encourages a holistic, systemic, and inclusive approach to creating sustainable futures, but it requires us to think and act differently, to embrace complexity and ambiguity, and to remain committed to long-term, collaborative, and adaptive processes towards achieving sustainable change and transformation.

Together, these four areas support the development of the knowledge and skills needed to support large-scale, transformative change toward sustainability and social equity.

Along with the four key areas of co-evolving knowledge and skillsets,” there are also three phases: 1) Reframing Present and Future; 2) Designing Interventions; 3) Waiting and Observing; that, focus on the iterative and adaptive nature of transformation processes in complex systems, and align closely with real-world practices in systems change, allowing for flexibility, learning, and continuous refinement over time. These phases are crucial, in that they offer a dynamic and iterative process for addressing complex systemic challenges. These phases emphasize the importance of deep reflection, ongoing adaptation, and learning through real-world feedback. As well, they support the “four key areas of co-evolving knowledge and skillsets” by fostering a holistic, flexible, and inclusive approach to transformative change. Each of the phases ensures that solutions are contextually relevant, responsive to feedback, and capable of evolving over time to meet emerging challenges.

Reframing Present and Future: this phase involves looking at the current system to identify its challenges, underlying assumptions, and patterns. It also requires envisioning multiple potential futures, challenging traditional perspectives, and framing problems in new, broader ways to open up possibilities. The reframing involves stepping back and reconsidering how we perceive the current system and possible futures, which also helps us identify root causes to systemic issues, which might be hidden beneath the surface. Reframing is key because it enables us to move beyond traditional problem-solving approaches and engage with the complexity of the system. This deeper understanding can reveal new possibilities for intervention and can lead to innovative, non-linear approaches to transformation. This phase invites a shift in mindset – from simply addressing symptoms to transforming the underlying structures, assumptions, and worldviews that govern the system. It provides clarity on what the “desired future” looks like and how it contrasts with the current state.

Designing Interventions: Once the problem is framed, this is the phase where specific actions, strategies, and innovations are created to move the system from its current state to the desired future. This phase takes the insights gained from the reframing phase and turns them into tangible, actionable interventions that can begin the transformation process. The goal of these design solutions or interventions is that they are not only impactful, but also flexible and scalable over time. These solutions and interventions are not just quick fixes but are designed to be part of a longer-term, transformative shift. These interventions are essential because they translate the vision of transformation into concrete steps that can be tested, refined, and expanded. This is the phase that bridges the gap between theory and practice, allowing for experimentation and learning.

Waiting and Observing: After interventions are implemented, this phase is in stepping back, observing how the system responds, and gathering insights. This phase emphasizes the importance of patience and reflection in the transformation process. It acknowledges that systems change takes time and that interventions need to be observed to understand their impact(s) fully. This phase is about learning from initial actions, observing and monitoring how the system responds to interventions, and reflect on what’s working and what’s not. This reflection then leads to the next round or process of refinement and iteration, or that a new course of action is needed. It also challenges the typical “do more” mentality and encourages participants to allow space for insights, emergence, and learning to unfold, which helps to avoid linear-thinking and expected immediacy of results from short-term thinking and considerations. Which will nurture a deeper understanding of how complex systems evolve and how change often happens in nonlinear, and unpredictable ways.

In the context of the K-12 educational system, the ideas and methodologies espoused through Transition Design can offer valuable insights for educational leaders striving to prepare students for a rapidly changing world. Transition Design has the ability to align with and support the work of educational leaders, through an emphasis on systems thinking, interdisciplinary approaches, and determining a longer-term vision for educational transformation. Transition Design’s focus on transitions to more sustainable and equitable futures, especially designed to address and navigate complex, long-term societal change from a holistic perspective, makes it an advantageous approach for education and educational leaders, especially in the current conditions and context.

However, it begins with understanding the complexity of our educational system(s). Education is a complex and interconnected system, supported not just by multiple, but a vast myriad of stakeholders that include students, families, teachers, community members, and policymakers, just to name a few. As well as being influenced by the ongoing and changing impact of cultural, economic, technological, and environmental factors. Transition Design helps to frame these systems factors and complexities from a holistic view, recognizing how changes in one area can have simple and/or significant effect upon other areas of the system. For example, how a curriculum change can have effect on the current infrastructure of teacher training and development, assessment methods, etc. The principles of Transition Design allow educators and educational leaders to better understand the systemic interconnections and create more sustainable and adaptive models to better serve their educational ecosystem.

It is in moving from short-term fixes to considering long-term transformation (and being able to stay the long-term course, however, not without a deep sense of agility, flexibility, adaptability, and learnability that will be needed). Education and education systems are often reactive, with policies and interventions aimed at and designed to address immediate issues and challenges, finding the urgent overwhelming the important, which can keep the system from focusing on deeper, longer-term change and transformation. Transition Designprovides a long-term, forward-facing approach that focuses on sustainable transformation rather than quick fixes (think root causes). This emphasis on long-term visioning offers a framework for educational leaders to engage in future-focused thinking (which can be achieved through activities such as scenario planning, exploring alternative futures, and engaging in discussions about the possibilities for tomorrow). 

Rather than simply reacting to current challenges, educational leaders can encourage students to think critically about how they might contribute to solutions for local, regional, and global issues and challenges, both now and in the future. This long-term visioning approach empowers students to see themselves as agents of change, capable of shaping the world they will eventually inherit. In many ways, this will require education to shift away from industrial-age educational models and processes that prioritize rote memorization and standardized testing to more dynamic models that prioritize critical thinking, creativity, and adaptive learning skills necessary and needed for a non-obvious and often uncertain future. Allowing educational leaders opportunities to create environments that encourage students to explore possible futures, anticipate challenges, and identify opportunities for innovation and social good.

Transition Design also aligns well with the promotion of participatory and inclusive design in the educational systems, which has scaled up in recent times (in California, think of LCAP processes and Community Schools Intiative), as well as the shift towards student-centered education. Thereby, allowing educational leaders to recognize the importance of involving students in decision-making and design processes (educating with rather than educating at). By engaging students as active participants in shaping their learning experiences, schools can foster a sense of agency and ownership, which is crucial for preparing students for future where they will need to navigate complex systems and make meaningful contributions to society. 

In Transition Design, there is an overall emphasis on collaboration and co-creation with all stakeholders, ensuring that those who are impacted by educational reforms (e.g., students, parents, families, local communities, etc.) all have a voice in the design process. In traditional approaches, top-down policymaking can alienate those at the grassroots level, leading to ineffective or poorly implemented reforms or changes. Through participatory methods, stakeholders are empowered to collectively envision educational futures that are more inclusive, relevant, and culturally sensitive. This participatory approach could lead to education systems that are more equitable, personalized, and responsive to diverse needs. As Irwin shares in The Emerging Transition Design Approach, “Transition Design argues that stakeholder relations can be seen as the “connective tissue” within a wicked problem, and failure to address these concerns and understand their complex relations are barriers to problem resolution. Conversely, because stakeholder relations permeate the problem (system), they also have the potential to be leveraged in designing interventions aimed at its resolution.”

As it has become more and more noticeable, the rapid pace of technological and social change means that education systems must become more adaptive and resilient (and some would also say, more agile). Transition Design encourages the development of education systems that are flexible enough to respond to new challenges, whether it’s the rise of Ai, the need for climate change education, or the growing demand for lifelong learning, as well as incorporating new skillsets and mindsets for the future. By focusing on transitions rather than static solutions, Transition Design can support education systems towards continuously improving and evolving to meet the needs of current and future generations. Which could involve the rethinking of curricula, embracing new forms of assessment, or integrating new technologies in ways that enhance learning rather than replace human interaction, as examples.

Especially, in a time when education and education systems must now prepare individuals to live and work in a non-obvious and uncertain future. The transition to a more sustainable, equitable, and technology-augmented world requires new ways of thinking, learning, and interacting with knowledge. Transition Design offers an approach that can support education systems in anticipating and preparing for these challenges. Which might also involve integrating futures literacy into the educational curricula – enabling students and teachers to imagine and navigate a variety of possible futures. By focusing on long-term systemic shifts, educators and students can develop the mindsets and skills needed to thrive in an ever-changing world.

Transition Design encourages system thinking, which is crucial for understanding the interconnectedness of various elements within the education system. By fostering systems literacy in both students and educators, we can help develop a deeper understanding of how education fits within the larger societal context, including economics, culture, and the environment. Systems thinking can lead to more innovative solutions in education, where solutions to challenges are seen not in isolation, but as part of a larger ecosystem. By focusing on sustainability transitions, education systems can be designed not only to promote environmental consciousness but also to provide students with the skills needed to solve local and global challenges in their careers and personal lives.

Educators, educational leaders, and educational systems will need all of the support they can garner to navigate the complex and dynamic challenges facing modern education and education systems, as well as broader societal challenges and changes. By adopting principles of systems thinking, interdisciplinary collaboration, long-term visioning, and participatory processes, educational leaders can create more resilient, sustainable, and forward-thinking learning environments. Especially in a time that requires us to move beyond surface-level changes and to embrace long-term, systemic transformation that involves multiple stakeholders, integrates sustainability, and prepares future generations for an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. Transition Design is an example of a framework, an approach, for addressing not just the immediate challenges within education, but also the broader societal changes that will shape the future of work, society, and the environment. Embracing these principles allow educators and educational leaders to better prepare students for a future that is uncertain, but filled with opportunities for innovation, leadership, and positive social change. By focusing on systemic design, collaborative processes, and long-term futures, Transition Design provides a possible approach for determining a roadmap for creating education systems that are equitable, adaptive, and resilient to future challenges.

The Learning Organization vs. The Knowing Organization: Embracing the Beginner Over the Expert Mindset

It is and will remain difficult to become an authentic “learning” organization…If you spend the majority of your time and effort acting like a “knowing” organization.

In today’s dynamic, volatile, and ever-evolving world, our organizations face an onslaught of continuous change that demands high levels of agility, adaptability, innovation, and resilience. As Garvin, Edmondson, and Gino put forth in, Is Yours a Learning Organization? “Organizations need to learn more than ever as they confront these mounting forces. Each company must become a learning organization.” However, “A learning organization is not cultivated effortlessly.”

This new landscape, which can be tumultuous and volatile, in many ways offers two distinct paradigms of organizational behavior: acting as a learning organization, characterized by what can be considered a beginner’s mindset, versus functioning as a knowing organization, dominated by what we have seen as an expert mindset. A learning organization cultivates a supportive and positive learning environment where curiosity, adaptability, safety, diversity, and growth prevail (often more open to experience(s), creativity and innovation); whereas a knowing organization often relies on and entrenches itself in established knowledge and expertise, fixed structures and mindsets, avoidance of challenges that may induce moments of not knowing or require new learning (often closed off to information and data that does not coalesce with their thinking and understandings that might require a pivot from what determines their expertise). 

Consider some of the characteristics of Learning vs. Knowing Organizations

Learning OrganizationKnowing Organization
Foster continuous improvement and innovationPrioritize stability and rely on established expertise
Encourage open dialogue, experimentation, and risk-takingResist change, often clinging to traditional methods and past successes
Embrace uncertainty as an opportunity to grow and evolveEmphasize hierarchical structures and top-down decision-making
View mistakes and failures as integral to the learning processFocus on maintaining efficiency over adaptability
Encourage individuals to develop new skills and perspectivesMay inadvertently stifle creativity and new ideas by overvaluing expertise

In getting back to the idea of the beginner and expert mindsets, it harkens us back to this quote from Zen Master, Shunryu Suzuki, “In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities. In the expert’s mind there are few.” Whereas the beginner’s mind is open, curious, and willing to learn without preconceived notions or assumptions (approaching learning as a journey); the expert’s mind has established boundaries around their knowledge that often limits or closes off new possibilities and learning from assuming a posture of certainty and a stance of knowing (approaching learning as a destination).

The Positives of a Beginner’s Mindset and the Negatives of an Expert Mindset

Beginner Mindset (+)Expert Mindset (-)
Adaptability: enables quicker adjustments to new circumstances and technological advancementsComplacency: Over reliance on existing knowledge may lead to stagnation
Creativity: fosters innovation by questioning assumptions and exploring unconventional solutionsResistance to Change: inflexibility can hinder progress in volatile and uncertain contexts and systems
Collaboration: encourages inclusivity, and being open to diverse perspectives, thinking, and ideasNarrow Focus: overemphasis on the “expertness” which may overlook broader opportunities and new learning and possibilities
Resilience: reduces fear of failure and of being wrong, to frame setbacks as opportunities to learn and growStatus Quo: often unwilling to pivot thinking even when new data presents the need or requirement for change

In moving forward, it is important to keep both the individual and the organization in mind, and why it is good to couple the beginner’s mindset with the learning organization. For when the individual is learning, then the organization is also learning, and when the organization is learning, so is the individual. It is not and EITHER OR, but an AND proposition. And there are definite benefits to both…

Adopting a beginner’s mindset brings numerous personal and professional benefits. It promotes continuous skill development, enabling individuals to stay relevant with their learning, as well as being able to better navigate new challenges. This mindset also helps reduce burnout by cultivating a sense of openness and curiosity, which counteracts the stress and perfectionism that often accompanies and leads to exhaustion, especially as it is drawn to emanates from the expert mindset. Furthermore, embracing a beginner’sperspective or mindset fosters stronger interpersonal relationships, as it encourages individuals to value and learn from others’ viewpoints, leading to more collaborative connections and networks. As well as the act and process of learning and exploring new ideas provides a deep sense of personal fulfillment, contributing to greater overall well-being and a deeper sense of purpose.

Whereas, being a learning organization also offers a range of significant benefits that drive both innovation and long-term success. By fostering an environment where employees feel safe to experiment and share ideas. Such organizations enhance innovation and maintain competitiveness in an ever-evolving ecosystem and society. A culture of continuous learning also boosts employee engagement and satisfaction, as individuals thrive when given opportunities to grow, leading to increased morale, loyalty, productivity, and ability to continuously improve at their work and job. Moreover, learning organizations are better equipped to navigate change, viewing it as a natural part of their growth rather than a disruption, which strengthens their resilience in the face of societal shifts and unforeseen challenges. Collective learning also enhances decision-making, as it draws on diverse perspectives and supports informed, flexible strategies. Ultimately, the commitment to ongoing development and upskilling enables a learning organization to achieve sustainable growth and effectively adapt to emerging trends.

Shifting from a traditional “knowing” organization to a “learning” organization presents several challenges, but the effort is both necessary and rewarding, for both individuals and the organization. One of the primary obstacles is resistance to change, as both leaders and employees may be reluctant to abandon or give up familiar practices and mindsets. Additionally, the fear of failure can be a significant barrier, especially in organizations where mistakes are stigmatized, discouraging risk-taking and innovation. Another challenge is the pressure for short-term thinking and results, which often undermines the long-term commitment and perspective needed to foster a culture of continuous learning. However, these challenges can be overcome through deliberate and intentional strategies. Leaders must model a learning mindset, openly admitting their own limitations and encouraging a culture of collaboration and problem-solving. Creating psychological safety is also crucial – employees need to feel that they can experiment, fail, and learn without fear of retribution or judgment. Recognizing and rewarding efforts to learn, even when they don’t lead to immediate success, helps reinforce this culture of growth. Investing in training and professional development opportunities ensures that employees have the resources to expand their skills, while promoting cross-disciplinary collaboration breaks down silos and encourages diverse perspectives. While the transition may require significant effort, becoming a learning organization is ultimately worth it. It not only enhances innovation and adaptability but also boosts employee engagement and resilience, ensuring long-term success in an often volatile and ever-changing world.

The journey from a “knowing” organization to a “learning” organization must begin with a shift in mindset, particularly at the leadership level. Leaders play a crucial role in setting the tone for this transformation by modeling the behaviors they wish to see across the organization. This means embracing a beginner’s mindset – acknowledging that they don’t have all the answers and demonstrating an openness to new ideas and perspectives. From there, as mentioned previously, is that the focus should shift to creating a culture of psychological safety, where employees feel empowered to take risks, make mistakes, and learn from them without fear of retribution and judgment. Encouraging open communication and fostering collaboration across teams is essential, as it breaks down silos and promotes a more integrated, cross-disciplinary approach to problem-solving. Additionally, investing in training and development should be prioritized, ensuring that employees have access to continuous learning opportunities that keep their skills relevant and adaptable to changing circumstances. By starting with leadership, cultivating psychological safety, and emphasizing collaboration and professional development, an organization lays a solid foundation for becoming a true “learning” organization – one that thrives on growth, innovation, and resilience in the face of change. 

The shift from a knowing organization to a learning organization is not just a strategic advantage in a time where ongoing learning and change is a necessity, it is also a cultural transformation. Organizations that embrace the beginner’s mindset unlock creativity, adaptability, and resilience, enabling them to thrive in an ever-changing environment. For individuals, the benefits extend beyond professional success to personal fulfillment and lifelong growth. By cultivating a culture of curiosity and learning, organizations and their members can achieve greater innovation, engagement, and sustainable success and improved outcomes, ensuring they remain relevant and competitive in the face of an uncertain and non-obvious future.

Moving From “Should” To Exploring “Could”

“The different outcomes of ‘should’ and ‘could’ thinking apply beyond our reactions to extreme emergencies. In all aspects of our lives, whenever we face an important decision, we naturally ask ourselves “What should I do?” But this framing constricts the answers we will come up with. When we instead ask ourselves “What could I do?” we broaden perspectives.” -Francesca Gino via Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules at Work and In Life

One thing we’ve learned from the Futures and Foresight movements is that, when we are looking at next steps, that we don’t, especially in the face of uncertainty, consider and constrain our way forward by referring to it as “the” future. Rather, moving “future” to “futures” reminds us that there are a multitude of possible outcomes and that there is no “one” future that we are all marching towards, but many possible futures that are, could, and may be unfolding and emerging at any time, depending on a wide variety of influences and factors. As Insight & Foresight share in Five Reasons to Say “Futures” Instead of “The Future,” “When we use the term “the future,” it can be easy to fall into the trap of thinking that there is only one possible outcome. This can limit our thinking and prevent us from considering alternate possibilities. By using “futures,” we open up our minds to a wider range of potential outcomes, which allows us to be more creative and expansive in our decision-making.

In making future plural, from one future to many futures, it shifts and expands our mindset in how we consider and approach the future, helping us to see multiple possible outcomes, as well as opening up our imagination to variety of scenarios that run the gamut from plausible, to possible, and preferable futures. This openness to futures, in many ways, not only helps us to be more creative and innovative, it reinvigorates our imagination as a strategic resource in considering the many ways the future may unfold and what may possibly emerge. Which is vitally important, because, as we all know, the future cannot be predetermined, it can only be imagined.

These subtle shifts, especially in our language, can reframe and change our perspective(s), opening us up to a greater sense of cognitive flexibility, and to reinvigorating our imaginations, considerations, thinking, and ideas. Engaging us to be more creative and innovative, as well as helping to override negative and constraining assumptions, which encourages and engenders a much more positive, growth-minded, and empowering mindset. As a leader, especially in the context of our current times which is fraught with disruptive, accelerated, and often volatile rates of change, it is imperative to catalyzing positive and often transformational action(s) with individuals, in our teams and across our organizations.

Which provides us a reason leaders can consider, as we consider the importance of our language as part of our organizational culture and climate, to moving our leadership language from “shoulds” to exploring “coulds” as another subtle, and yet possibly transformational shift…

Words hold power, internally and externally, in how we communicate, how we consider our actions and decisions, the environments we create in our organizations, and the shaping of our individual and organizational mindsets. And like a fish that fails to recognize that it is swimming in water, we often fail to recognize the power of words and how transformational subtle shifts in our language can be. 

Consider a decision that you may be facing as a team…

So, you ask the team, what should we do?

What we don’t realize is that there is a constraining heaviness that “should” produces. It expresses expectations that naturally lead us into more convergent considerations, narrowing our thinking, our ideas, and how those are framed. In many ways, “should” is accompanied with a sense of rigidness and obligation that rides alongside how we determine to approach the problem at hand.

On Leadership’s article, The Power of Should and Could adds to the overall importance of the words that leaders use. As the article shares, “When leaders use “should” with their teams it fosters a sense of fear or pressure among team members, and will limit creativity. Employees might feel compelled to conform to a predetermined set of rules or standards, leading to a lack of empowerment and diminished job satisfaction. The emotional impact of “should” in leadership can result in disengagement, resistance, or a culture of blame.”

Whereas, what if you asked the team, what could we do?

In this subtle shift from should to could, we find an overall feeling of lightness to “could” that that lifts us away from the heaviness that permeates the feeling of a “should.” Taking us into and towards more divergent thinking, encouraging new considerations, new ideas, and a wider variety of options. As well as the freedom to explore these options. 

As one author shares, “Emotionally, “could” fosters a sense of inspiration and optimism. It allows us to consider different paths, take risks, and learn from experiences. By embracing the notion of “could,” we open ourselves to new opportunities and reduce the self-imposed pressures of perfectionism and rigid expectations. Leaders who embrace “could,” create a more empowering and inclusive work environment encouraging creativity. “Could” communicates a sense of possibility, openness, and collaboration. It fosters an atmosphere of trust and psychological safety, enabling employees to voice their opinions, experiment, and learn from failures.”

What is also interesting, especially in a time when we are realizing the deeper importance of wellness in our organizations, is that, in the Difference Between Should and Could, “shoulds” are often seen as something that is “shaped by external factors” and “how we think others see us” are usually come from thinking we’re not enough.” Whereas, “coulds” provide a sense and feeling of empowerment and can leave us “possibly inspired and motivated to be open to trying more things,” and take the “overwhelm (and judgment) out of the situation.”

Here are a few examples to consider for using “should” and “could”:

  • I should go on a diet
    • I could take an online class on eating healthier to see if I like it
  • I should train for a marathon
    • I could start taking short runs in the morning to see how it feels
  • I should write a book
    • I could utilize quiet time in the morning to try and begin journaling

Language is the water that we swim in within our organizations. It often determines how we feel as individuals, the optimism, motivation and inspiration we feel (or not), as well as the overall culture, climate and environment of our teams and organizations. Awareness of that language, how it is used, and how it permeates the organization, is paramount to creating more creative, innovative spaces and environments, where imagination allows us to explore, experiment, and discover new possibilities and opens us to new experiences and ways of thinking, collaborating, connecting, and interacting. 

Meaning, that being mindful and aware of how language permeates the organizational “waters” that we all swim around in together, is impactful to the level of ideas, solutions, and outcomes that arrive at, both individually and organizationally.

As Francesca Gino shares in Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules At Work and In Life“When we think about what we could do, out thinking becomes much broader: We imagine and explore a much larger set of possibilities before making a final decision. Considering what we could do shifts us from analyzing and weighing options that we assume to be fixed to generating more creative options.”

So, the next time you are considering what you should do? 

Maybe take a minute or two to reframe the question in order to consider what you could do?

It might be well worth the outcome, for you as a leader, and your teams and your organization.

    The Education Legacy Effect: A Chariot, Two Horses, And Four Feet Eight And A Half Inches

    “If we all worked on the assumption that what is accepted as true is really true, there would be little hope of advance.” -Orville Wright

    A monumental part of preparing for the future, is our ability to not only question our assumptions and “this is always how we’ve done things,” but in updating our mental models so we are not overlaying outdated thinking, ideas, processes, and strategies on top of the future, often limiting thinking and new possibilities. Which, in general terms, refers to the choices and behaviors of previous generations or experiences that can and still shape our current actions and perspectives, even if the original situation no longer exists. Think of it as the “ripple effect” of past events on the present day.

    We could refer to this as the “legacy effect” which is the lasting impact that previous conditions or past actions, decisions, or events have on current processes or properties, and/or continue to influence how we do things today. 

    For example, the impacts that one generation leaves on the environment for future generations to inherit.

    One of the things that is going to be difficult for many organizations and institutions, especially in this time of accelerated and often volatile change forces, is being able to break free from the assumptions and behaviors that lock them into “legacy” organizations, that are often caught up in the “legacy effect” that leaves them in a stable and unable to break free from the status quo situation(s) when considering when considering new possibilities for the future. 

    Just like individuals, organizations and institutions are also in need of updating their mental models…

    A good analogy for this, especially in education, comes from Jeremy Gutsche in his book, Create the Future: Tactics for Disruptive Thinking, and how the idea of “4 feet 8.5 inches” keeps us entrenched and dependent on thinking from the past, to the point of not even realizing why we are doing what we are doing. Much like that saying, “this is how we’ve always done things” which makes consider the cost of our inherited systems and the toll they take on the future.

    As Gutsche shares, this “legacy effect” thinking, 4 feet 8.5 inches takes us all the way back to the days of the Roman Empire, when they controlled and patrolled their vast lands with two-horse Roman war chariot. However, these chariots often tore up and left deep ruts in the land, making it very difficult for farm wagons to travel easily and without damage. To avoid this damage and to make travel easier, the clever farmers built and designed their wagons to match the width of the Roman war chariots and the ruts they left, which was 4 feet 8.5 inches wide.

    And as design has a tendency to catch on, soon all wagons were built to be 4 feet 8.5 inches wide, including, as time marched forward, the first railway mining carts that were built to be pulled by horses.

    Now going forward further, when the first railways were built in England, engineers used the same spacing, which was the adopted gauge of the old carriage roads, 4 feet by 8.5 inches. Roads which were built to accommodate the width of the Roman chariots. Meaning that the dimensions of the Roman roads had become the invisible blueprint for modern transportation centuries later. It was an unintentional legacy, but one with both constraining and enduring consequences, all of the way up to the Space Shuttle.

    Just imagine, building a railroad system that stretches across a vast, untamed land. You would naturally assume that every decision—from the size of the tracks to the materials used—would be made based on the needs of the moment, the landscape, and technological advancements of the time. Yet, the standard gauge of railway tracks in much of the world, which is the seemingly arbitrary 4 feet 8.5 inches, wasn’t chosen with forward-thinking precision. Rather, it was inherited, passed down from the dimensions of ancient Roman chariot tracks. This “legacy effect” shaped the entire rail industry, a decision from the distant past that was impacting present progress. 

    Yes, in many ways, our progress into the future was held in place by the grooves of the past…

    Or as Jeremy Gutsche expounds on the past overlaying the future, “Soon, smart people replaced all the train tracks for modern trains that were bigger, better, and faster. The new tracks remained the same size. Even when high-speed trains started going over 200 miles an hour, many of them continued on tracks that were 4 feet and 8.5 inches wide.”

    And moving further forward, Gutsche continues that, “when NASA began making and transporting the Solid Rocket Boosters, they took into account that they needed to fit on tracks that were – you guessed it – 4 feet and 8.5 inches wide.”

    Once again, the past constraining the future, with Roman war chariots keeping their hold on space travel…

    The ruts that Roman war chariots carved into the ground, ended up being the same grooves that we find ourselves stuck in all the way up from farm wagons to the Space Shuttle. We found ourselves, often unknowingly, becoming dependent on past decisions placing their hold on future commitments. Conclusions, which were sometimes pushed forward blindly, without considering if and whether these were the best decisions for moving forward, for the future, but because that was they way we had always done it. 

    In so many ways, when we fail to question and accept assumptions, the past can constrain and put its control on our future.

    A phenomenon that we also see occurring in education.

    Education, like the railways, struggles with its own form(s) of the “legacy effect.” Many of the behaviors, strategies, frameworks, systems, structures, and practices we see in schools today are very often entrenched relics, caught in the grooves of a different time, of a different era—an era when the world was vastly different, when access to information was limited, when the skills and competencies required to thrive were not what they are today.

    As Gutsche shares in his work Create the Future, “If you want to create the future, you need to dodge the traps keeping you fixated on the path that you are already on. Escape the traps, and you will find new paths of opportunity.”

    But those traps can often be the sirens of status quo calling us into the shores of yesterday.

    Let’s consider, for example, the traditional classroom setup: rows of desks facing a teacher. A classroom format that traces back to the industrial age, where schools were designed for a different time and ultimately to train students for an era when factory work held sway on the masses. The emphasis was on discipline, uniformity, and memorization; not creativity, critical thinking, or digital literacy. Yet, despite the radical changes we are witnessing across society, this classroom model, in many ways, remains a widespread phenomenon, often replicated, difficult to surrender, even in modern times.

    How about the academic calendar? Which, to this very day still revolves around and remains fixated on the agrarian schedule, with long summer breaks originally intended to allow children to help with farming and the harvest. Another relic of a bygone era, as we no longer live in an agricultural society. However, the rhythm and rhyme of education has yet to willing determine how to completely dispose of this antiquated approach to the school year schedule.

    These examples highlight how education can find itself caught in the ruts that keep it tethered to path’s from the past, making it both difficult and challenging to adapt to the context and demands of current times and the emerging possibilities of an uncertain future.

    Much like the rail industry’s reliance on 4 feet 8.5 inches as a sustaining marker, education’s adherence to outdated and often irrelevant systems can include a tendency to stifle creativity and innovation, making it difficult for the “new” to emerge and flourish. Today’s students are preparing for a very different world and non-obvious future driven by technology, artificial intelligence, and global interconnectedness. Yet, they often find themselves caught up in a model designed to prepare them for the work and systems found in a 19th-century factory, rather than for an exponentially shifting world of work we see emerging across all of society.

    The legacy effect leads to curriculum structures that can feel rigid, testing methods that prioritize rote memorization over real-world problem-solving, and one-size-fits-all approaches to learning that ignore the diversity of students’ needs, talents, and even expectations. While these systems may have made sense at one time in the past, it is difficult to say that 4 feet 8.5 inches effectively serves their needs for the future.

    Just think: If the railroad industry had the luxury of starting from scratch, would it still choose 4 feet 8.5 inches? Most likely not. Similarly, if education were to reinvent itself for the 21st century, would it likely look very different from the system we’ve inherited? Most likely.

    To overcome the legacy effect in education, we must critically examine our long-held traditions and be willing to let go of what no longer works, to retire the irrelevant, and explore the unknown with a greater sense of imagination, curiosity, creativity, and openness to experience. 

    This doesn’t mean discarding everything but rather being intentional about what we keep, what we bring forward, as well as what we discard, what we put away, to discover what changes, and why. 

    We need flexible learning environments, curricula that reflect modern challenges, capacity and skill building that closes widening gaps, as well as assessments that value creativity, emotional intelligence, and critical thinking over rote thinking and memorization.

    The story of 4 feet 8.5 inches offers a powerful reminder: just because something has always been done a certain way doesn’t mean it’s the best way. Or the only way. Very often, it reminds us how powerful the past can be in placing its finger on the future, especially when we aren’t aware of our mental models, our assumptions, and why we do the things we do.

    When we fail to ask questions. 

    As we look to the future of education, we must challenge the legacy systems that no longer serve us and reimagine a learning experience that prepares students for the world as it is—and as it will be. Just as trains aren’t confined to ancient chariot roads, education should no longer be bound by the assumptions of the past and a 19th century factory model. 

    It’s time to set a new gauge for learning.

    “Even if we hear something and we don’t understand we make assumptions about what it means and then believe the assumptions. We make all sorts of assumptions because we don’t have the courage to ask questions.” Don Miguel Ruiz

    A Tipping Point To Change And Transformation

    “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.” -African Proverb

    It is now much more of an acknowledgement than a “aha” to remind people that we are living in a world permeated by constant, volatile, accelerated, and even exponential change. It has moved from the edges to the core and we are immersed in it, both personally and professionally. Which means, being able to remain flexible, agile, and adaptable towards change and even transformation is becoming the true difference maker between retaining some semblance of relevance, or fading into irrelevance, for many of today’s organizations.

    Which is a staggering fact when facing a future that moves at this level of pace (and today will be the slowest it will ever be), as John Kotter has shared a brutal fact from his research that many organizations are facing, “70% of all change initiatives end up in failure.” 

    To add to that research, not only are organizations struggling to positively move the meter on change and transformational efforts, a study from McKinsey shares that, along with the change struggles, the overall life-spans of many organizations are shrinking (often at staggering levels), as well. For example, McKinsey includes in their study that in 1958 that average life-span of a Standard & Poor (S&P) 500 company was 61 years, which has, in today’s world, dropped to less than 18 years. McKinsey adds, that they believe by the year 2027 (which is not that far off), 75% of companies currently quoted on the S&P 500 will have disappeared entirely (reminding me of such companies as CompUSA, Circuit City, Mervyn’s, etc.).

    Which could be a very good reason, that for those ones entering the workforce in today’s world, according to the most recent averages fropm the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will have to restart their job or career at least 12.8 times (which is on the rise) over their lifetime. Which really amplifies the need for lifelong learning, attaining new competencies and capacities, and skills acquisition as a never-ending journey into the future. Lifelong learning has moved from a good to have mindset, to a need to have mindset for today and tomorrow. 

    So, in combining the dwindling life-span modern organizations and companies, in conjunction with the inability to engage positive and successful change initiatives and transformation, we see begin to see the flashing beacon of need upon many a leader’s problem-solving landscape (another reason among the many that systems thinking is such a vital skillset for leaders). Couple that with today’s intensity and speed of change, we now see the curtain call of irrelevance looming on the horizon.  Especially for those organizations that are unable or unwilling to learn, that find themselves stuck in the status quo or yesterday’s thinking, and who are unwilling to let go of the successes of the past for the possibilities of tomorrow. For many organizations, they see the urgency and need for change, but remain in these static poses, either unwilling or unable to make the changes that are needed to push their individuals and organization forward. Especially for those organizations where past and current successes make the need for change to seem much less urgent, or even necessary. Or as Kotter shares in the Harvard Business Review, “Convincing people of the need for change is harder, especially for those organizations or areas where the success has been achieved.” And for most, the scariest proposition to this process is that by the time the organization realizes it needs to change, it is often too late. 

    Irrelevance has arrived in the meantime.

    While both urgency and relevance serve as prime factors in moving organizations towards a willingness to disrupt the status quo, towards a need for change and transformation, those may still not be enough to serve as the tipping points in making change and transformation a viable process and outcome in many organizations. Of overcoming the 70% failure rate of organizational change initiatives. But why?

    It’s not as if change is some out of the box idea that no one has experienced in their lives. Change is all around us, it permeates our lives each and every day. To say that you avoid change, is to say that you avoid living, because you can’t escape it. While we all admit that it can be difficult, both personally and professionally, and find it often easier to avoid than embrace, we are coming to the realization that avoidance is no longer a viable route forward for us or our organizations. 

    But is that why we have such a high number of change initiatives that consistently fail? Or why engaging any type of transformational process often ends, at best, in some sort of shallow incremental level of change? Or just fades off into the “next” thing? The question then remains why? Why do these change initiatives and transformations fail? Even when we know that the outcomes of the initiative are better for us as individuals, and as organizations? Why?

    Let’s consider this quote from Margaret Wheatley as we venture into this why…

    “People support what they create. Participation is not a choice!”

    Or as Wheatley puts forth in Find Our Way: Leadership for an Uncertain Future, “It’s the fact that people need to be creatively involved in how their work gets done.” Individuals don’t show up to the organization hoping to not have to think, to not needing or wanting to create or innovate, to only be meaningless widgets serving at the whim of the organization and leadership. Rather, they are looking towards being an integral part of a vision, of adding to something bigger than themselves. Towards building a collective identity based around a shared significance that they can be a part of, which is rooted in meaningful work that has a real impact for which they are individually and collectively part of creating. 

    As Wheatley adds, “We have no choice but to invite people to rethink, redesign, restructure the organization. We ignore people’s need to participate at our own peril. If they’re involved, they will create a future that has them in it, that they’ll work to make happen.” 

    Or we could say, commitment becomes a by-product of creating.

    Which take us into this idea of selling and buying…

    Which means, that if people are a part of creating the solution, they will also work to make sure that the change or solution leads to a positive outcome. Which means, engaging the collective in the process removes the need for “selling” your idea to the people, or working to have people “buy into” the process or initiative that the leader is “selling.” As Wheatley shares, “People support what they create.” Or, to add, “People only support what they create. Life insists on its freedom to participate and can never be coerced into accepting someone else’s plans.”

    Now couple that, with the realization that most change initiatives or transformational efforts are determined by and created from leadership (top down approach), or leadership combined with a small group (limited voice), and we wonder why failure exists at the 70% threshold? And while these efforts might not be framed as top-down initiatives, they are definitely not collective and/or broadly participative in creation or design. 

    As Wheatley puts forth in Finding Our Way, “Enormous struggles with implementation are created every time we deliver changes to the organization rather than figuring out how to involve people in their creation. These struggles are far more draining and prone to failure than what we wrestle with in trying to engage an entire organization. Time and again we’ve seen implementation move with dramatic speed among people who have been engaged in the design of those changes.” For which she adds, “As people are engaged in the difficult and messy processes of participation, they are simultaneously creating the conditions – new relationships, new insights, greater levels of commitment – that facilitate more rapid and complete implementation.” 

    However, what she shares, speaks to Kotter’s 70% failure rate…

    “because participative processes can overwhelm us with complexity of human interactions, many leaders grasp instead for quickly derived solutions from small groups that are then pronounced to the whole organization.”

    Couple the complexity of those collective environments, with the accelerated pace and rate of change, and we can see why many leaders and organizations will forgo this step in the change process…

    Which definitely speaks to a leadership conundrum we are facing in most organizations…

    Leaders can often help people see the need for and urgency for change or transformation, but in an effort to speed up and de-complexify the process, will avoid including that collective in participating in the creation of the change initiative or transformation. Which is often a tipping point to ultimately determining the fate of the initiative and the commitment of your people towards achieving implementation and a positive outcome. 

    Or as Wheatley puts forth, “Leaders keep hoping this will work – it would make life so much easier! But life won’t let it work; people will always resist these impositions. Life, all of life, insists on participation. We can work with this insistence and use it to engage people’s creativity and commitment, or we can keep ignoring it and spend most of our time dealing with all of the negative consequences.”

    Which leaves leaders with a choice, and ultimately, to determine which side of the 70% they want to be on? And as a leader, in today’s constantly and exponentially changing world, it is also now one of your most important and visible tasks moving forward, or as John Kotter shares…

    “To make the status quo seem more dangerous than launching into the unknown.” 

    How Are We Preparing For The Futures We See Coming?

    “It was such a lost learning experience, because the pandemic itself has been a great opportunity for students to figure out who they are and to question their assumptions about continuity, their ideas about identity, what it means to be a citizen and how to take care of the elderly. There’s so many beautiful questions hidden in this crisis that could have been woven into curricula to provide meaning to what we are going through. The issue is that education is all about planning and preparing students for certain markets and jobs, and only to a lesser extent about exploration. And by closing our eyes to the present, we end up being not prepared for anything. To bring education into the 21st century, we need to let go of that path dependency, and create more space for failures, pilots, experiments, and explorations.” -Loes Damhof, UNESCO Chair in Futures Literacy via Teaching Futures

    In many ways, if feels as if we have worked very diligently to try and put the pandemic in our rear-view mirror, even at the risk of not learning the many lessons it has provoked and provided for us. We talk about a “new” normal, but that often serves as code for getting back as close as possible to some semblance of what we did or were doing pre-pandemic. To getting back to the “certainty” of the known. We talk about creating the individual and organizational capacity to lean into the rising complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity of these current times, while spending our time chasing the illusion of and assurance of certainty. We continue to probe at solving the expanding, and often unsolvable, dilemmas and adaptive challenges of our times with veneer, ready-made solutions, when we need to begin to focus on building the fortitude and capacity towards learning how to “manage” these challenges more effectively.

    It often feels as if we are intent on trying to forget and put the pandemic behind us, rather than engaging in reflection upon and learning from the myriad of lessons that the struggles of what we’ve gone through have uncovered, projected, catalyzed, and/or has shown and unveiled to us over the last few years.

    Maybe what we have to realize, is that in many ways, the pandemic has changed our image of the future. How we now think about it? How we consider it? How we picture and visualize it? Even how we determine our dreams, hopes, and possibilities of and for the future? While it is not always readily apparent to us, what we have come to recognize is that our post-pandemic image of the future is quite often challenging our pre-pandemic view of the future. And unfortunately, in this age of extreme busyness and accelerated change, we rarely have or take the time to intentionally engage in considerations of how, why, and what that means for us moving forward, both individually and organizationally.

    Which engages the thought from Kees Van Der Heijden for us, both individually and organizationally, which he shares in his book Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, “The prime question to be addressed is whether the organization is well-equipped for the futures we can see coming?”

    Which is a much deeper question than we probably consider upon first glance, of what is well-equipped and what do we see coming? How are we equipping ourselves individually and organizationally for these emerging futures? What competencies and capacities have we already built up, and what ones do we need to engage and expand? How are we rigorously scanning the horizon, both individually and organizationally to determine the weak and strong signals of what is coming? What kind of processes and systems do we have in place to sustain that work, decipher what those signals may mean for us individually and organizationally, and then have the internal and external network aptitude to spread that information to better prepare for the futures we see coming?

    For which Epamindondas Christophilopoulos, the Head of Foresight and Tools at the Foundation for Research and Technology shares in What Is Futures Literacy and Why Is It Important? “We need to give people this skill to deal with a future full of uncertainties, and to emancipate them by helping them understand how we can anticipate and how we can use the future in the present to provide hope.” Which is effectively pushing us to move those concepts of – complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty – from where we’ve hidden them in the rear-view mirror, and to place them out in front of us, in full windshield view for us to see and confront head on. To putting them right out there, front and center of where we are heading towards, knowing that in today’s VUCA world, they will be traveling with us anyways. And to add, this “skill” that Christophilopoulos is referring to, is our capacity to become more comfortable with the future and our ability to then anticipate the future in a way that is more futures literate.

    Which, especially in discussing literacies, is not often a term that we are familiar with or have heard of in reference to literacies. And yet, we live in a world where the term “literacy” is expanding beyond what we’ve previously considered in terms of literacy. There’s digital, cultural, financial, and social, just to name a few. As well as futures literacy…

    As there is not just one way to think about the future, just as there is not just one future.

    It is when we consider the future or futures from a literacy perspective, we can find ourselves more open to visualizing how we approach the future and “use” the future as something that can be cultivated and learned. It is something that we can build capacity with, both individually and collectively.

    As Riel Miller, Head of Futures Literacy at UNESCO shares, “Futures literacy helps us understand how the future is created, how we imagine the future to be, and what the impact is of imagining the future? Our ability to anticipate future outcomes tends to shape our choices, our strategies, and our long-term plans.” To add, UNESCO puts forth, “Futures literacy is a capability. It is the skill that allows people to better understand the role of the future in what they see and do. Being futures literate empowers the imagination, enhances our ability to prepare, recover and invent as changes occur.” To which Riel Miller adds, “Futures literacy helps us to be more sophisticated in how we use the future as a lens. It is a way of opening our perception and allows us to anticipate. Which provides us another way into resilience. To negotiating shared meaning. As we need to be more sophisticated in how the future is used by us. Uncertainty is a resource, not something we can eradicate.”

    All of which is incredibly important to our current context and times, especially for our educational and societal systems, as we consider the future that is coming at us. The way that we’ve considered how the world works have become murky myths that are challenging our long-held assumptions. Especially as many of the rites of passage, rituals of change, even our mental models and maps that have guided us in our lives and within our organizations, systems, and society for so long, are either being reframed or are seen as crumbling pillars falling all around us. All of which are creating greater levels of uncertainty, broader breadths of unknowns, especially in how we view, envision, and anticipate the future. As Riel Miller shared previously, this will require us, both individually and organizationally, “to be more sophisticated in how we use the future.” That “sophistication” becomes more valuable, vital and important as these coming societal shifts accelerate change, expand complexity and ambiguity across our societal landscapes, and instigating a plethora of growing instabilities within our systems, as both the weak and strong signals on the horizon of our future increases the myriad of unknowns and scenarios that we must consider facing in both the short- and long-term.

    So, if we are going to be able to support our students, families, stakeholders, educators, and educational leaders to anticipate the future, to be open to emergence and novelty in those futures, to lean into the complexity and uncertainty of our current context and times, then we have to be able to not only stretch ourselves cognitively away from our need and assurance for certainty, but to see this as a creative moment. An opportunity for imagination and innovation to take the front seat, especially if our images, visions, and narratives for the future are to be more preferable in realizing our collective hopes, than giving into our often dystopian fears.

    Thereby, allowing us to use the future as a vehicle to drive us towards better decisions in the present, by being more “sophisticated” in how we consider and use the future, we can create new and more preferable images of the future we want and are willing to strive for, allowing us to backwards map those images towards improving the thinking, actions and decisions we are making in the present, both as individuals and as organizations. For it is that anticipation of, supported by a willingness to discover, explore, and experiment, driven by our individual and collective imaginations, that we see that there is no “one” future, but a myriad and diversity of futures constantly emerging, and the more “sophisticated” we are in using the future, the more apt we are to move towards those preferable futures we imagine and envision.

    It is in this space that we are able to ask questions, challenge our assumptions, and embrace the learning that lies in that chasm between our pre- and post-pandemic world. 

    As the world changes, often in accelerated and in unanticipated ways, so do our considerations and assumptions, much of which are grounded in the past. Shifting our mental models and maps from the rear-view mirror to the windshield allows us to release thinking we’ve entrenched in a world that no longer exists, so we can begin to creatively confront the uncertain and unknown futures that now await us. And the more sophisticated we can be in that journey, the more open we will be to the emergence of the diversity of futures that lie down the road.

    “If you feel that you’re approaching the future with fear, you have to come to understand where that fear comes from. We tend to have this inherent fear of uncertainty because we simply don’t like it, and not knowing can make us scared. Mind you, that holding on to one scenario, one image of the future, may give you security, but it’s a false sense of security. I think it’s important to see that uncertainty is a friend. It’s not something to be scared of or something to eliminate, it’s something to embrace. Not knowing means that there’s still a lot of opportunities. Always try to accept more than one idea of what the future could be, and remind yourself that it does not exist. So, whenever you’re confronted by this, ask yourself: Whose future is it, anyway?” -Loes Damhof, UNESCO Chair in Futures Literacy via Teaching Futures

    A Time Of Awareness And Emergence

    “The creativity and adaptability of life expresses itself through the spontaneous emergence of novelty at critical points of instability. Every human organization contains both designed and emergent structures. The challenge is to find the right balance between the creativity of emergence and the stability of design.” -Fritjof Capra

    Awareness in a world of accelerated and exponential change has not only become a necessity, it is a defining leadership skillset in the midst of today’s complex and often chaotic environments. For, today’s leaders must be much more cognizant of, and detecting of the often faint signals of innovative opportunities flickering out on the organizational horizons. Awareness of what is emerging, as well as what is preparing to emerge, and the impact of that emergence, often serves as a slim differentiator between ongoing relevance or future obsolescence.

    Awareness of these emerging opportunities remind us that we are continuously introducing new and often novel elements into our complex systems, requiring greater creativity and willingness to lean more comfortably into growing levels of ambiguity and uncertainty. Which in turn assists us in gaining new perspectives and realizations that both as individuals and organizations, the path forward is growing less and less static, less and less linear, less and less certain, and less and less known. Which will ultimately require new behaviors, new skillsets, new capacities, and new thinking at all levels of the organizational ecosystem if we are to deal more effectively with the growing complexity that is arising from the continuous and often volatile change that it provokes. As Otto Scharmer shares, “The business that leaders are in today, is the business of transforming awareness… There is deep longing for more meaning, for connections.”

    Which becomes especially salient in the midst of today’s modern complex systems where the capacity for emergence is ever present. Being proactive towards and having greater awareness of the signals arising amidst the growing complexity and chaos allows leaders and the organization to create the cognitive space to step back, reflect, and determine the innovative opportunities that are or may be emerging, both internally and externally. Which is vitally important as leaders and organizations become more and more reactive to the growing dilemmas and adaptive challenges that are quickly filling those spaces.

    As emergence occurs, awareness allows for our systems to respond and even transform in new and novel ways, creating new thinking and even a new level of consciousness to arise, one that did not exist previously, allowing for adaptation across the organization. As Peggy Holman shares, “In social systems, emergence can move us toward possibilities that serve enduring needs, intentions, and values. Forms can change, conserving essential truths while bringing forth innovations that weren’t possible before.” For which she adds, “Emergence is a process, continual and never-ending. It emphasizes interactions as much as it does the people or elements interacting. Emergence involves also paying attention to what is happening…”

    Building our awareness muscle allows us to gain a better vantage point towards determining what is emerging both now and in the future and to then be better equipped to engage and proactively affect that emergence positively across the organizational learning ecosystem. Especially as this is not a time of certainty, but one of emergence. A time of learning towards, more than learning from.

    “What happens at the beginning of any creative process? Nothing! Creativity requires that we create space and wait for something to emerge.” -via Otto Scharmer

    Sensemaking In The New Normal

    “Sensemaking starts with chaos.” -Weick, Sutfcliffe, and Obstfeld via Organizing and the Process of Sensemaking

    Which is exactly where we are at, in the very midst of chaos. If not, it certainly feels like it. Inundated with a steadily increasing number of adaptive challenges, dilemmas, polarities, and unknowns to be faced.

    However, be that as it may, today’s leaders can ill-afford to find themselves and their organizations immobilized by these circumstances and challenges. While the current volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity can feel just a bit overwhelming, it cannot be allowed to be all-consuming. Chaos cannot be incapacitating nor debilitating. Rather it must serve as a catalyst for seeking out new opportunities rising up and out from what many want to term as our “new normal.” Which will ultimately require new understandings, new thinking, new frames and maps, and new abilities and skillsets from our leaders and our organizations.

    As we move deeper into dealing with the chaos of current times, it begins with the realization that we are and have been moving from a complicated to a much more complex world. In many ways, it is very reminiscent of the difference between dealing with a technical problem as opposed to tackling an adaptive challenge.

    As author of It’s Not Complicated Rick Nason shares in Inc., “A complicated issue is one in which the components can be separated and dealt with in a systematic and logical way that relies on a set of static rules or algorithms.” Nason adds, “It may be hard to see, but there’s a fixed order in something that is merely complicated and that allows you to deal with it in a repeatable manner.” Whereas, according to Nason, “A complex issue is one in which you can’t get a firm handle on the parts and there are no rules, algorithms, or natural laws.” Nason continues that, “Things that are complex have no such degree of order, control, or predictability. A complex thing is much more challenging – and different – than the sum of its parts because its parts interact in unpredictable ways.”

    Much like adaptive challenges and dilemmas, complex problems often don’t have an easily identifiable answer, and most often don’t have a set solution at all. Which requires a different approach from the answer view that we take to solving technical problems and complicated issues. In fact, a lot of organizational frustration and even dysfunction arises from approaching these adaptive and complex challenges with the same sets of frames, maps, and solutions that are applied to technical problems and/or issues that tend to fall more to the complicated. As Nason adds, the mindset needs to shift in regards to moving from complicated to complex with the approach of, “Think manage, not solve.” Which is a very different approach and mindset, but one that will be more and more necessary of today’s leaders for our modern organizations.

    Furthermore, in realizing that our organizational ecosystems have become increasingly more complex, it is then understanding that the idea of “Sensemaking” will become a much more needed and necessary ability and skillset for traversing the volatile, chaotic and unknown conditions and contexts that today’s organizations and leaders are currently facing. As Deborah Ancona shares, “Sensemaking, a term introduced by Karl Weick, refers to how we structure the unknown so as to be able to act in it. Sensemaking involves coming up with a plausible understanding – a map – of a shifting world; testing this map with others through data collection, action, and conversation; and then refining, or abandoning the map depending on how credible it is. Enabling leaders to explore the wider system, create a map of that system, and act in the system to learn from it.” In many ways, sensemaking gives us a frame for making greater “sense” of the rising complexity across today’s organizations and organizational ecosystems. Or as Ancona adds in her article Sensemaking: Framing and Acting in the Unknown, “Sensemaking is the activity that enables us to turn the ongoing complexity of the world into a situation that is comprehended explicitly in words and that serves as a springboard into action. Thus sensemaking involves – and indeed requires – an articulation of the unknown.” Which takes us back to the opening paragraph and the need for leaders and organizations to not let the current VUCA context to paralyze them into inaction. Rather, it is in this willingness to attempt to articulate and map out the unknown that organizations can begin to become more adaptable and agile moving forward. Especially as sensemaking requires constant awareness of the organizational context and situational scanning to better move the organization towards action. Too often, especially in the midst of chaotic and disruptive times, organizations allow static processes and status quo thinking to entrench and insulate them, which will do little towards mapping out the unknown and engaging the organization in the experimental and discovery learning necessary for creating of these maps.

    In fact, sensemaking, has seven properties that work interdependently for making meaning and creating coherence towards constructing new understandings, especially as the world around the organization becomes less understandable and more unknown.

    Below we find a representation of the seven properties of sensemaking (italicized) provided by Laura McNamara from her article, Sensemaking in Organizations: Reflections on Karl Weick and Social Theory:

    • Sensemaking is a matter of identity: it is who we understand ourselves to be in relation to the world around us.
    • Sensemaking is retrospective: we shape experience into meaningful patterns according to our memory of experience.
    • How and what becomes sensible depends on our socialization: where we grew up in the world, how we were taught to be in the world, where we are located now in the world, the people with whom we are currently interacting.
    • Sensemaking is a continuous flow; it is ongoing, because the world, our interactions with the world, and our understandings of the world are constantly changing. You might also think of sensemaking as perpetually emergent meaning and awareness.
    • Sensemaking builds on extracted cues that we apprehend from sense and perception. Cognition is the meaningful internal embellishment of these cues. We articulate these embellishments through speaking and writing – the “what I say” part of Weick’s recipe. In doing so, we reify and reinforce cues and their meaning, and add to our repertoire of retrospective experience.
    • Sensemaking is less a matter of accuracy and completeness than plausibility and sufficiency. We simply have neither the perceptual nor cognitive resources to know everything exhaustively, so we have to move forward as best we can. Plausibility and sufficiency enable action-in-context.

    It is also in recognizing, as Samdanis and Lee share in Uncertainty, Strategic Sensemaking and Organizational Failure in the Art Market, that strategic sensemaking necessitates and includes the ability of a leader to continuously “scan, interpret, strategize, act, and adjust” according to the chaos and constantly changing context that most organizations are facing. Which in today’s current volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environments, is similar to the Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) loop frame that fighter pilots have utilized to make fast and accurate decisions while operating in these VUCA-infused environments. Or even the Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycle that we find utilized in most continuous improvement efforts across organizations. Engaging a variety of frames allows us to become more adaptable, more agile, and more able to adjust to constantly changing organizational situations and contexts. Or as John Boyd, the U.S. Air Force Colonel who designed the OODA loop for thinking in complex and chaotic situations adds, “We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.”

    Engaging sensemaking, creating maps, enabling a variety of frames, as well as engaging foresight abilities, allow leaders and organizations to begin to become much more aware of the signals on the horizon. Signals that may and can have great effect on our organizations, both in the present and the future. Which requires leaders and their organizations to constantly be aware of and always monitoring the horizon for signals (weak or strong) and engaging sensemaking strategies to determine what those signals may mean. It allows leaders and their organizations to be much more aware of what is emerging, both in the present and for the future. Which will not only require new maps and framing, but ongoing reframing as new learning, new knowledge and new data makes itself available and known. As Maree Conway shares in Foresight Infused Strategy, “The environments in which organizations now exist are moving so quickly that future outcomes can no longer be assumed. Because our worlds are mired in complexity, there are often no obvious choices. A different approach to strategy development is needed.” For which she adds, “The future is characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and much that we simply can’t yet know. Foresight has value because it allows us to acknowledge uncertainty and seek to better understand it, not to try and explain it away with predictions. Done well, using foresight moves thinking beyond the status quo and helps organizations prepare to respond to change proactively.” 

    In the chaotic and often disruptive spaces of our current context, the future is constantly emerging in often unexpected and unforeseen ways, bringing new meanings, new interpretations, and new understandings toward this new reality we are experiencing. A space where our current maps, frames and mental models try to make sense of and guide us through our new reality, but often come up short and remain insufficient and lacking towards the challenges that we are facing and lie ahead.

    As Weick, Sutcliffe and Obstfeld share, “There are truths of the moment that change, develop, and take shape through time. It is these changes through time that progressively reveal that a seemingly correct action “back then” is becoming an incorrect action “now.” And it is with that reveal that this new normal pushes us to acknowledge the insufficiency of our past maps, frames and mental models in overlaying them upon our current context. Maps, frames and mental models that must not only be updated, but  transformed toward closing the gap between that insufficiency of what was and the adjustments necessary to meet the new reality of what is emerging. As Weick shares from the properties of sensemaking, “People extract cues from the context to help them decide on what information is relevant and what explanations are acceptable. Extracted cues provide points of reference for linking ideas to broader networks of meaning and are simple, familiar structures that are seeds from which people develop a larger sense of what may be occurring.”

    Which will be the leadership and organizational work for moving forward, especially in world overrun with too much information and data. We will all have to become much more equipped to engage in sensemaking in our organizations, as well mapmaking and frame braiding, out of which new narratives for the future can be created to guide our way. Or as Weick shares, “People enact the environments they face in dialogues and narratives. As people speak, and build narrative accounts, it helps them understand what they think, organize their experiences and control and predict events and reduce complexity in the context of change management.” Which will be paramount for growing complexity of today’s organizational ecosystems. 

    Or as Weick adds, “The basic idea of sensemaking is that reality is an ongoing accomplishment that emerges from efforts to create order and make retrospective sense of what occurs.”