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The Interesting Case of Flattening Mean Time to Mediocrity

I have a complex relationship with generative AI.

On the one hand, I use it constantly and find it to be a godsend for some formerly laborious stuff.  I’ll never visit another recipe site, comb through some dusty gadget troubleshooting site, or write boilerplate code by hand as long as I live.  Read through terms and conditions?  Pfft.  “Read this and tell me if I should care.”

On the other hand, I can’t tell you how boring I find the endless river of LinkedIn thought leadership about AI.  I’m also not especially fond of prognositcation along the lines of “what if the thing that I confuse with a human, and hear me out, did the kinds of things that humans do!?”

Compelling take there, Nostradamus.

This is all to say that my take on it is that generative AI is genuinely useful.  But in my estimation, it’s only genuinely useful for a small fraction of what the breathless, incessant hypsters claim it is useful for.  I think this take is similar to Cal Newport’s in this video examing whether the tech is a “disappointment.”

Today, I’d like to zoom in on what it’s actually useful for.

Mean Time to Python Mediocrity

Cal Newport likes it for programming, and I was just reading Jonathan Stark’s daily email, and he seems to agree.  And both of these square with my experience, where just tonight I was having ChatGPT vibe code me up a Python script to aid in a regression analysis of 40ish Google Analytics instances to see if I can find significant correlation between properties of websites and share of traffic referred by answer engines.

Since I have ChatGPT generate throwaway scripts a fair bit, I can safely predict the workflow will be something like this.

  1. I tell it to generate something, but I’m too vague.
  2. I refine.
  3. It generates something.
  4. I get angry and swear at it for a few rounds before I calm down and realize I’m swearing at a probablistic function.
  5. Regrouping, I give better direction.
  6. Iterate/repeat until joy (or maybe 10% of the time I realize it’s just not up to the task).
  7. Marvel at how quickly I was able to get something up and running.
  8. Marvel at how it generates tech debt even in small applications, like a human entry level programmer.
  9. Stop marveling and move on because I’m trying to get things done.

I don’t write a lot of code these days, and I never really wrote much in Python.  So it’s generally a pretty killer use case that I can get something legitimately useful up and running less than a half hour.  And since it’s throwaway code, it really doesn’t matter the code is mediocre.

Time from 0 to medicority is less than 30 minutes.

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Technology Done to You, Not for You

About 6 months ago, I teased a series on the idea of facadeware, largely starring our lemon of a Grand Cherokee, but speaking more broadly to a problem with how we’re developing technology.  Specifically, I defined this concept as:

Facadeware: superficially advanced gadgetry with an actual net-negative value proposition.

I’d like to start unpacking that and write my series.  Now, I’m not going to do what so many bloggers do and promise to write regularly again, since I have no idea if I’ll be able to back that up.  But I am now through my two relocations in two months, settling into a permanent location, and hoping to have at least a thin sliver of free time to once again indulge my deepest passion: ranting discursively on the internet.

(I won’t belabor the point here, but for anyone interested, I’ll add a personal update as a footer to this post.)

Before I tell the tale of my Jeep in subsequent posts — and tell it, I will, rest assured — I want to expand on the concept of facadeware.  I also want to reemphasize that I would no longer feel good about applying the label “technologist” to myself, descriptively or aspirationally.  And that’s not because I now mostly do bureaucratic business ownership stuff for a living.

It’s because I no longer thing “technologism” is worth aspiring to, given the state of technological advancement.

Handing in My Technologist Card

Before going any further, I’d like to reiterate that I still like to program, build, tinker, and improve.  Hell, just tonight I performed some quixotic field surgery on a Keurig, successfully bringing it back from the dead briefly, before it re-died in a blaze of cooking circuitry. It isn’t a question of my tastes or interests changing, but rather that I increasingly don’t think that the way we, humans, are advancing technologically is a net positive.

In fact, I’d go so far as to claim that I think we have collectively, technologically regressed over the last 10-15 years, notwithstanding a never-ending slew of phones that are slightly bigger, or thinner, or… something… each time.  Technology in this time has advanced, in a sense, for some definitions of “advanced.”  More computations are happening, and the cost of that computing is going down.  Various things are getting faster, more parallel, and certainly they’re spewing shit at us in higher volumes than ever before.  Endless scroll wasn’t around 15 years ago, and we now have that.  So, that’s, uh, awesome, I guess.

Things are progressing down a path.  There are undeniably more gerbils running in more, bigger, gerbil balls, flinging more gerbil poop into the universe than ever before.  Nobody can look at our world and be anything but impressed at the advancements in gerbil poop per cubic meter per hour.

But does gerbil poop, impressive in its volume and efficiency, make anyone’s life better?

A Meaningful Definition of Advancement

At this point I’m going to back slowly away from the gerbil metaphor and trust that you’ve absorbed my implicit point that more-faster-cheaper isn’t a synonym for better.  But if more cores and circles on the back of my phone aren’t necessarily better, what is necessarily better?

What indeed is the purpose of technological advancement?

Well, I’d argue that the purpose has historically been to improve the lives of users of the technology.  For most of my life, and the 20th century preceding my life, I think one could argue that this was generally the primary goal of most technology (allowing for the exception that a lot of advancement comes from weapons research and is later repurposed for benevolent applications).  Technologists built stuff to make their and others’ lives better.  The user was the hero, and the technology was the enabler of the hero’s journey.

To drive this home consider the fictional Star Trek universe.  I’ve recently learned a term “solarpunk,” that, if I’m understanding it correclty, could describe that universe.  In that world, the crew of the Enterprise says things like “computer, make me an 8 course Thanksgiving meal” and it just happens without a lot of navel-gazing and mythologizing about how the computer does it and how it’s disrupting the farming industry.

The fabricator, the warp drive, the holodeck — these things all just serve the occupants of a galaxy with a substantially better standard of living than we enjoy.  Centuries of technologists focused on improving the lives of others led to meaningful, life-changing outcomes.  This is what I signed up to participate in when, 30 years ago, I started to consider myself an aspiring technologist.

And this is categorically not what we’re doing any longer.  So I’m out.

Where We’re Heading Instead

When I first arrived at our new home in Phoenix, the plumbing wasn’t yet hooked up to our fridge, so I was temporarily forced to make ice cubes in trays, like some kind of savage of a bygone millennium.  I went to Walmart and bought a couple of ice cube trays and found myself pleasantly surprised by an advancement in this technology, even though I paid like 40 cents for them or something.  They had a lid that fit over the top with a coverable hole in it, so that you could easily fill them and walk to the fridge without sloshing water all over yourself.

I thought to myself, “this is a legitimate, genuine improvement that makes my life better in a meaningful, if tiny, way.”

I then realized that was more than I could say for most of my SaaS subscriptions and gadgets.

Google has recently pioneered new ways to punish me for using uBlock Origin.  Our Jeep has recently showcased a major breakthrough in showing ads on our nav system.  Netflix and other streaming services have explored sophisticated ways to annoyingly turn off my TV if they think their engagement stats are dropping, and they’ve happily shared that knowledge with traditional telecom companies.  And everything, and I mean everything, has some kind of moronic AI chatbot that nobody wants, and serves only to explode the failure density of every applied technology in our lives.

Technology is no longer done for us.  It’s done to us.

We are no longer the beneficiaries. We’re the marks.  Improving people’s lives via technology has taken a backseat to extracting money, time, and attention from them via the same.

And, again, with that, I’m out.

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Generative AI and the Bullshit Singularity

I haven’t forgotten about my promise to discuss the concept of facadeware.  The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune continue their assault on me as I navigate, among other things, two relocations in two months.  I want to write the series, and I plan to write the series, but I’ve been busy.  Nonetheless, thanks to those who read the first installment and the smattering of donations that were eventually refunded.

Anyway, as I thought about how to continue that series, I realized that I’d have to talk about generative AI.  In the year of our Lord 2025, if I were to avoid talking about GenAI for as long as 15 minutes, I’m pretty some kind of Harrison-Bergeron-universe agent would break into my house and electrocute me.

Generative AI Isn’t Facadeware

First, let me say that what I’m describing as facadeware predates generative AI’s explosion onto the mainstream in 2022.  I also don’t think GenAI is an example of facadeware.  At least, not exactly.

In the previous post, I briefly defined facadeware as “superficially advanced gadgetry that actually has a net negative value proposition.”  And while GenAI clearly has a (to date and for the foreseeable future) net-negative value proposition, I wouldn’t categorize it as superficially advanced.  It is genuinely advanced, and it is an impressive feat of experimentation and human ingenuity.

And so because of this, GenAI/LLM techs don’t really have a place in the facadeware series (though I think the concept of “agentic AI” does qualify).  However, I want to dump my bucket on this subject both because I know people will invariably bring it up for discussion and because I think a relationship, if not direct, does exist.

The Role of Bullshit in GenAI and Facadeware

Bullshit, as a concept, plays a foundational but different role in both GenAI and in facadeware.  The role of bullshit in facadeware is relatively simple.  To sell anything with a net-negative value proposition, almost by definition, requires bullshit.  Bullshit is the fuel of the facadeware engine.

GenAI kind of inverts this.  With GenAI, the fuel of the engine is human ingenuity, and the output is bullshit.  In other words, some of the best and brightest minds in all of enterprise Silicon Valley have produced a technological advancement that is to bullshit what cold fusion would be to energy output.  It was an improbable and unexpected giant leap forward in humanity’s collective capacity to generate bullshit.

So if you were to look for a relationship between facadeware and GenAI, the most likely scenario is that you would either use GenAI to generate facadeware or simply to market it.

Defining Bullshit Somewhat Rigorously

Now, before I go and make you think this is a simple exercise in Luddite shitposting, let me be clear that I actually have nothing against bullshit in moderation.  Anything you do on social media is more or less bullshit, and plenty of self-soothing and self-indulgent narratives, like schadenfreude fantasies, are bullshit.

Now, let’s actually define bullshit with some precision before I lumber onwards with this rant.  The dictionary in Google give us a short, sweet take:

bull·shit
/ˈbo͝olˌSHit/
vulgar slang
noun
noun: bullshit
1. stupid or untrue talk or writing; nonsense

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The Awesome Power of Self-Deprecation in ContentOps

I promise you that I’m going to make some grammar mistakes and maybe even factual errors in this post.  Well, promise might be strong.  But it’s quite likely at least.

The reason, dear reader, is that I simply don’t care enough to remedy that ostensibly bad situation.  That, and the fact that I read at a 5th-grade level on a good day, combine to deliver you a wholly and unapologetically unpolished experience, should you read on.

The Inline Self-Deprecation Example

Real quick, let’s go meta.

What I just did there is something that I do all the time when writing, and I do it reflexively, without really thinking.  I self-deprecate because it’s kind of fun, and come on, we shouldn’t really take ourselves too seriously.  But beyond that, what I did actually serves a pretty significant purpose from an operations and efficiency perspective.

I neatly eliminated the need for at least one quality assurance step (and some person-hours) in my content production.

To wit, it’s now not super important that I have an editor take a grammar pass through this, nor that I find some flavor of SME to fact check.  Why would I bother?  I’ve already inoculated against the critique of “but you did a bad grammar!” and against the critique of “that is factually incorrect, sir!”

Imagine how stupid one of those comments would look in the comments section when I not only hinted at, but practically promised, those outcomes.

I didn’t need to pay an editor, and I didn’t need to pay a QA SME.  I just needed to explain that I don’t care enough about those things to spend that time and money.

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The Facadeware Problem, But, Also, Help Me Beat My Car to Death

Make no mistake.  This is a shitpost.

But it’s also going to be more than a simple shit post.  Let me explain.

  1. I’ve created an IndieGogo campaign to help us do what Stellantis should have done itself: take the dangerous car they sold me off the road and destroy it.
  2. I’m going to use this post as the start of a series of blog posts where I’ll describe the absolutely bonkers, completely unbelievable Odessey of owning a ’23 Grand Cherokee.  But I’ll use those posts to also describe a bigger problem with technology that I’ve come to think of as “the facadeware problem.”  And a Jeep Grand Cherokee with “lane assist” that sometimes slams on its own brakes for absolutely no reason is the poster child for the facadeware problem (which I’ll describe later in the post, and more in the series).

But let’s start with the shitpost and the IndieGoGo.

It’s not just me — Consumer Reports has no good things to say about recent Grand Cherokees.

Our Latest Engine Fire

On July 9th, my wife took our 4-year-old to the pediatrician in our apparently normally functioning (that day) 2023 Jeep Grand Cherokee Summit Reserve.  After leaving from his blood draw, lollipop in hand, they got into the car, she hit the start button, and both of them watched, bemused, as smoke started billowing from under the hood of the suddenly completely disabled car.

Boom, 0 to Jeep-nuts roasting on an open fire in the literal push of a button.

Amanda stayed calm though.  This wasn’t her first rodeo.  Far from it.

Our brand new, top-line trim Grand Cherokee has spent about 4 months in the shop since we bought it at the end of 2022, often completely disabled and non-functional in a variety of ways that defy belief.  For those keeping score at home, our new car has spent about 13% of its existence being repaired.  Heck, this wasn’t even the first time it lit itself on fire at startup and been towed for the same.

Here we are, in 2024, when the same, then 1.5-year-old, Jeep also self-immolated and turned our date night into a frantic scramble to get a tow, locate a cab, and get home to our son who was with a babysitter that graciously stayed until 11 PM.  I’m coming to think of this routine mad dash as the “Jeep Scramble.”  Maybe they can make a lightly singed one of those stupid Jeep ducks to commemorate it on our dashboard.

So, Amanda knew the deal.  Get a ride to Enterprise, because that’s Jeep’s loaner company of record.  Open probably our 12th or 13th case with Jeep Customer Care to get our 12th or 13th rental car and do the usual: get everything ready for tow, submit for rental reimbursement and start the ball rolling on the paperwork.

More than a week later, our lemon ’23 Grand Cherokee was still at the dealer lot to which it was towed that day.  It was set to remain there, apparently, until August 8th, which is the soonest any Jeep dealership could even LOOK at it.

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