Gregory Poling

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Faculty Member

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Southeast Asia Program, Faculty Member

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Gregory B. Poling directs the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he is also a senior fellow. He is a leading expert on the South China Sea disputes and conducts research on U.S. alliances and partnerships, democratization and governance in Southeast Asia, and maritime security across the Indo-Pacific. He is the author of the recently published On Dangerous Ground: America’s Century in the South China Sea, along with various works on U.S. relations with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia at large. His writings have been featured in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, and the Naval War College Review, among others. Mr. Poling received an MA in international affairs from American University and a BA in history and philosophy from St. Mary’s College of Maryland.
Phone: (202)775-3273
Address: 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036

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Papers by Gregory Poling

China’s disregard for small state agency hampers its foreign policy

China loses strategic waters in the South China Sea

South China Sea code of conduct still a speck on the horizon

Raising the Stakes

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jun 23, 2022

This chapter examines the dynamics that fueled the rapid escalation of the South China Sea disput... more This chapter examines the dynamics that fueled the rapid escalation of the South China Sea disputes from 2009 to 2014. These included the extended continental shelf claims of Malaysia and Vietnam, the subsequent elevation of the nine-dash line as the formal demarcation of China’s claims, and the steady increase in violent standoffs involving Chinese law enforcement vessels. The chapter traces the Obama administration’s attempts to respond to these rising tensions, which coincided with and eventually undermined its “Pivot to Asia,” starting with the failure to prevent China’s takeover of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines. The chapter concludes with the filing of the Philippines’ landmark arbitration case against China.

On Dangerous Ground

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jun 23, 2022

The book explores the history of U.S. involvement in the South China Sea disputes from the late n... more The book explores the history of U.S. involvement in the South China Sea disputes from the late nineteenth century through the present day. The work seeks to explain which U.S. national interests best explain its positions on the disputes over the course of more than a century. It determines that two have been most abiding: defense of freedom of the seas and the credibility of U.S. alliance commitments, particularly to the Philippines. As a result, the book examines not just the evolution of the South China Sea disputes but how those intersected with monumental shifts in the law of the sea and the state of the U.S.-Philippines alliance over the course of the twentieth century. The book also serves as a general history of the territorial and maritime disputes, providing a comprehensive overview of the factors that drove each party to stake claims, undertake new occupations, and occasionally resort to the threat or use of force. These threads come together in a forward-looking analysi...

The South China Sea

Perspectives on the South China Sea : diplomatic, legal, and security dimensions of the dispute

The South China Sea is arguably one of the world's most dangerous regions, with conflicting d... more The South China Sea is arguably one of the world's most dangerous regions, with conflicting diplomatic, legal, and security claims by major and mid-level powers. To assess these disputes, CSIS brought together an international group of experts-from Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam. This volume gathers these experts' analyses to provide a diverse and wide-ranging set of perspectives on the region and to explore possibilities for future cooperation.

The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation: Deepening Defense Ties Among U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

RAND Corporation eBooks, 2019

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND... more This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

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Gray Zone Incidents in the Yellow Sea

Maritime Gray Zone Operations, Aug 30, 2022

On Dangerous Ground

America and the Free Seas, Part II

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter explores the tensions in the regime of maritime law that led to the start of the Thi... more This chapter explores the tensions in the regime of maritime law that led to the start of the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea. It examines the evolving positions of the United States and other powers in these debates, including the role of China, the Philippines, and the other South China Sea claimants. It explores those concepts that emerged in UNCLOS which are most relevant to the South China Sea disputes, and the new claims made in the disputed waterway as a result. It also takes a detailed look at where the conference landed on contentious issues involving innocent passage and military activities in the exclusive economic zone, which are major points of tension between the United States and China today.

Interests That Abide

On Dangerous Ground

The introduction provides a brief geographic and political overview of the South China Sea disput... more The introduction provides a brief geographic and political overview of the South China Sea disputes. It presents the frequently raised question of whether the United States has “lost” the South China Sea and notes that a proper answer requires first establishing what winning and losing would mean. It explains that the United States has been drawn to the South China Sea by two long-standing interests: freedom of the seas and alliance credibility. The first results in a brief history of U.S. commitment to maritime freedoms and how that helped drive it to Asia in the first place. The second requires a particular focus on the Philippines as the last U.S. ally in the South China Sea disputes.

The Great Alliance Debate

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter explores the fraught negotiations over renewal of the U.S.-Philippines Military Base... more This chapter explores the fraught negotiations over renewal of the U.S.-Philippines Military Bases Agreement in the aftermath of the fall of Saigon, the Nixon Doctrine, and the passage of the War Powers Act, which fueled worries about U.S. willingness to defend its remaining allies. The South China Sea became an integral part of these debates as the Philippines pursued new oil exploration in the area and sought assurances that attacks on its forces either at sea or on disputed islands would trigger alliance obligations. The chapter concludes with the temporary resolution of the debate during the Carter administration, but questions about mutual defense obligations in the South China Sea would resurface and haunt the alliance for decades.

Raising the Stakes

On Dangerous Ground

Diplomacy Disappointed

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter examines the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its emergen... more This chapter examines the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its emergent role in managing the South China Sea disputes during the 1990s and 2000s. It explains how new provocations by Beijing, particularly the occupation of Mischief Reef and its subsequent militarization, fueled Southeast Asian anxieties and kickstarted the negotiations that eventually led to the disappointing 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. The chapter tracks the repeated failures to implement that document and other unsuccessful attempts at joint development and cooperation. It also explores China’s shifting claims, including the elevation of the nine-dash line and “historic rights,” which led to heightened U.S. concerns about freedom of navigation.

Seeds of Discord

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter explores the early history of the South China Sea disputes and the reactions of the ... more This chapter explores the early history of the South China Sea disputes and the reactions of the United States to those claims. It focuses particularly on French, Japanese, and Republic of China jostling over the Spratly and Paracel Islands from the 1910s through 1930s. It also explores the early determination of the United States that Scarborough Shoal was U.S. territory as part of the Philippines. It examines early Philippine interest in annexing the Spratlys in the lead-up to World War II and U.S. concerns about keeping Japan out of the “Dangerous Ground,” as the uncharted eastern portions of the Spratlys were known. The chapter then explores operations in the South China Sea during World War II, Japanese use of the islands, and the scramble by France and the ROC to claim them in the immediate postwar years.

Arbitration and Artificial Islands

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter traces the new dynamics introduced to the South China Sea disputes by the dual Chine... more This chapter traces the new dynamics introduced to the South China Sea disputes by the dual Chinese provocations of 2014: the deployment of a deep-water drilling rig over the continental shelf claimed by Vietnam and the launch of a massive island-building campaign in the Spratly Islands. These activities accelerated tensions that had been building for several years between China and the United States, and between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors. But despite belatedly recognizing the scale of the challenge, the Obama administration became trapped in the rhetoric of “freedom of navigation” and only managed to effectively rally international pressure against Beijing in early 2016. That progress was quickly undermined by the election of Rodrigo Duterte as president of the Philippines and his decision to set aside his country’s landmark arbitration victory over China.

Settling on Dangerous Ground

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter tells the story of early PRC, ROC, French, South Vietnamese, and Philippine jockeyin... more This chapter tells the story of early PRC, ROC, French, South Vietnamese, and Philippine jockeying for position in the Paracel and Spratly Islands. It relates the exploits of Morton Meads and Tomás Cloma, who in 1955 and 1956 escalated tensions between U.S. allies the ROC, Philippines, and South Vietnam with their schemes to get rich by exploiting the Spratlys. The chapter tracks the U.S. response to these and subsequent developments in the Dangerous Ground. It concludes with the 1974 Battle of the Paracels, during which PRC forces seized the western half of the Paracels from South Vietnam, catching the United States flat-footed.

A Course to Steer

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter examines the steady deterioration of the strategic environment in the South China Se... more This chapter examines the steady deterioration of the strategic environment in the South China Sea for the United States and its allies over the course of the presidencies of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and Donald Trump in the United States. It looks back at the lessons learned over the course of the book regarding U.S. interests and how to pursue them. It argues that it is not too late to secure freedom of the seas and defend U.S. credibility with the Philippines and its other allies. A combination of short-term deterrence and long-term diplomatic pressure could incentivize Beijing to seek compromises that the United States and the wider international community could live with, but the space to do so is shrinking rapidly.

Hard Power and People Power

On Dangerous Ground

This chapter examines the shifts in Chinese naval power and intentions, regional geopolitics, and... more This chapter examines the shifts in Chinese naval power and intentions, regional geopolitics, and the political environment in the Philippines during the 1980s. It provides an overview of China’s occupations in the Spratly Islands at the end of the decade, and Vietnam’s responses, leading to the 1988 Battle of Johnson Reef. The chapter explores the domestic upheavals of the latter Marcos administration and its overthrow in the 1986 People Power Revolution. The chapter ends with the failure of the United States and Philippines to secure passage of a new basing agreement and the subsequent departure of U.S. forces from the country, which would have a major impact on subsequent dynamics in the South China Sea disputes.

China’s disregard for small state agency hampers its foreign policy

China loses strategic waters in the South China Sea

South China Sea code of conduct still a speck on the horizon

Raising the Stakes

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jun 23, 2022