ABSTRACT Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion o... more ABSTRACT Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their Indigenous knowledge (IK) in natural resource management (NRM) to fulfil their customary obligations to country and to exert their Native Title rights. Despite a legal and institutional framework for inclusion of IK in NRM, IK has so far been applied only sporadically. We conducted an ethnographic case study to investigate perceptions on IK, science and how they affect integration of the two knowledge systems in the Wet Tropics. Our results show that IK and science are perceived as different concepts; that integration is limited by weak Indigenous internal and external governance; and that stronger Aboriginal governance and more focused engagement strategies are required to further the application of IK in local NRM. We conclude by arguing that NRM in the Wet Tropics needs to be reconceptualised to accommodate IK holistically, by considering its epistemology and the values and ethic that underpin it.
The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond t... more The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change. In Australia, climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef, but is exacerbated by regional and local pressures. We undertook a scenario analysis to explore how two key uncertainties may influence these threats and their impact on the Great Barrier Reef and adjacent catchments in 2100: whether (1) global development and (2) Australian development is defined and pursued primarily in terms of economic growth or broader concepts of human well-being and environmental sustainability, and in turn, how climate change is managed and mitigated. We compared the implications of four scenarios for marine and terrestrial ecosystem services and human well-being. The results suggest that while regional actions can partially offset global inaction on climate change until about mid-century, there are probable threshold levels for marine ecosystems, beyond which the Great Barrier Reef will become a fundamentally different system by 2100 if climate change is not curtailed. Management that can respond to pressures at both global and regional scales will be needed to maintain the full range of ecosystem services. Modest improvements in human well-being appear possible even while ecosystem services decline, but only where regional management is strong. The future of the region depends largely on whether national and regional decision-makers choose to be active future ‘makers’ or passive future ‘takers’ in responding to global drivers of change. We conclude by discussing potential avenues for using these scenarios further with the Great Barrier Reef region’s stakeholders.
Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical fo... more Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical for meeting current and future societal needs, and requires specific governance and management policies. Using the literature, we identify seven generic policy-relevant principles for enhancing the resilience of desired ES in the face of disturbance and ongoing change in socialecological systems (SES). These principles are (P1) maintain diversity and redundancy, (P2) manage connectivity, (P3) manage slow variables and feedbacks, (P4) foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems (CAS), (P5) encourage learning and experimentation, (P6) broaden participation, and (P7) promote polycentric governance systems. We briefly define each principle, review how and when it enhances the resilience of ES, and conclude with major research gaps. In practice, the principles often co-occur and are highly interdependent. Key future needs are to better understand these interdependencies and to operationalize and apply the principles in different policy and management contexts.
Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical fo... more Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical for meeting current and future societal needs, and requires specific governance and management policies. Using the literature, we identify seven generic policy-relevant principles for enhancing the resilience of desired ES in the face of disturbance and ongoing change in socialecological systems (SES). These principles are (P1) maintain diversity and redundancy, (P2) manage connectivity, (P3) manage slow variables and feedbacks, (P4) foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems (CAS), (P5) encourage learning and experimentation, (P6) broaden participation, and (P7) promote polycentric governance systems. We briefly define each principle, review how and when it enhances the resilience of ES, and conclude with major research gaps. In practice, the principles often co-occur and are highly interdependent. Key future needs are to better understand these interdependencies and to operationalize and apply the principles in different policy and management contexts.
As the human and financial costs of natural disasters rise and state finances continue to deplete... more As the human and financial costs of natural disasters rise and state finances continue to deplete, increasing attention is being placed on the role of the private sector to support disaster and climate resilience. However, not only is there a recognised lack of private finance to fill this gap, but international institutional and financing bodies tend to prioritise specific reactive response over preparedness and general resilience building. This paper utilises the central tenets of resilience thinking that have emerged from scholarship on social-ecological system resilience as a lens through which to assess investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR) for resilience. It draws on an established framework of resilience principles and examples of resilience investments to explore how resilience principles can actually inform decisions around DRR and resilience investing. It proposes some key lessons for diversifying sources of finance in order to, in turn, enhance "financial resilience". In doing so, it suggests a series of questions to align investments with resilience building, and to better balance the achievement of the resilience principles with financial requirements such as financial diversification and replicability. It argues for a critical look to be taken
The disposal of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park for port expansion at Abbot Po... more The disposal of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park for port expansion at Abbot Point in North Queensland, Australia, has been a contentious issue receiving extensive media coverage. The media has played a key role in representing different risk perceptions, and potentially influencing policy decision-making. This paper identifies different perceptions of risk portrayed by local, regional, interstate and national print media in relation to the dredge spoil issue from January 2013 until February 2014. Media analysis explored the questions: how is ‘risk’ represented, who is linked to different risk perceptions, and how has the media coverage of the issue changed over time? Results show that ‘risk’ to the Great Barrier Reef from the dredge spoil was framed by four main themes: Environmental Disaster, Socio-economic Disaster, Equilibrium and Industrialism. Environmental Disaster was the most prominent overall, and often positioned in opposition to Industrialism. In January 2013 the dredge spoil issue was mainly covered by local sources and focused on risks to local livelihoods and environments. By February 2014 the issue was covered by sources throughout Australia and represented a range of risks to the GBR, and its World Heritage status, in relation to coal mining and port developments. Insights for communication from this analysis include the importance of using clear language that provides exact and solid examples of risks, especially in light of the media's agenda-setting power and with an issue that the general public does not have direct experience.
At the start of Raphael Barth’s provocative documentary Aftermath, a bottle of Coca-Cola lands on... more At the start of Raphael Barth’s provocative documentary Aftermath, a bottle of Coca-Cola lands on a pristine beach. The image calls to mind the satirical 1980 film The Gods Must Be Crazy, in which the lives of Kalahari Desert tribal peoples are changed irreversibly by modernization. Barth’s is the true story of how foreign aid delivered to inhabitants of the Nicobar Islands after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami became a second disaster.
Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their I... more Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their Indigenous knowledge (IK) in natural resource management (NRM) to fulfil their customary obligations to country and to exert their Native Title rights. Despite a legal and institutional framework for inclusion of IK in NRM, IK has so far been applied only sporadically. We conducted an ethnographic case study to investigate perceptions on IK, science and how they affect integration of the two knowledge systems in the Wet Tropics. Our results show that IK and science are perceived as different concepts; that integration is limited by weak Indigenous internal and external governance; and that stronger Aboriginal governance and more focused engagement strategies are required to further the application of IK in local NRM. We conclude by arguing that NRM in the Wet Tropics needs to be reconceptualised to accommodate IK holistically, by considering its epistemology and the values and ethic that underpin it.
In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated wi... more In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of
provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional
culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can
address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province’s island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Jan 31, 2014
The process of learning in social-ecological systems is an emerging area of research, but little ... more The process of learning in social-ecological systems is an emerging area of research, but little attention has been given to how social and ecological interactions motivate or inhibit learning. This is highly relevant to the South African water sector, where a major policy transition is occurring that provides local water users and managers with new opportunities to engage in adaptive learning about how to balance human and ecological needs for water. In this paper, an agent-based model is used to explore potential 'learning dilemmas', or barriers to learning in the South African water sector, whereby human perceptions combined with social-ecological conditions affect the capacity, understanding, and willingness required to learn. Agents manage water according to different management strategies and use various indicators to evaluate their success. The model shows that in areas with highly variable hydrological regimes, agents may be less able to learn because conditions are too unpredictable for them to benefit from past experience. Because of these changing conditions, however, agents are more likely to try new water management strategies, promoting a greater diversity of experience in the system for agents to learn from in the future. In water-stressed areas, where agents tend to have greater difficulty fulfilling demand for water than in areas with abundant water supplies, they are also more apt to try new strategies. When learning is restricted to small areas, agents may learn more quickly but based on a more narrow range of experience than in larger or more heterogeneous areas. These results suggest a need to enhance learning so that it accounts for interacting hydrological, ecological, and social dynamics. Although the model is a highly stylised version of reality, this preliminary exploration may eventually help to reverse the past trend of poor understanding of social-ecological dynamics as they relate to water management.
"Ecology and Society’s 2004 special feature on Traditional Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems... more "Ecology and Society’s 2004 special feature on Traditional Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems (http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/issues/view.php/feature/13) marked one of the first efforts to view traditional, local, and Indigenous knowledge and their roles in managing ecosystems through the lens of social-ecological systems (SES) resilience. This view acknowledges the importance of experimentation, learning, and pluralism to cope with uncertainty in complex adaptive systems (Folke 2004, Folke et al. 2005, Berkes and Turner 2006, Davidson-Hunt 2006, Berkes 2009). As a frame for understanding knowledge, SES resilience provided new inspiration for scientists seeking to understand Indigenous livelihoods and resource management, increasingly against the backdrop of rapid global change (Armitage and Johnson 2006, Mercer et al. 2012, Raygorodetsky 2013).
ABSTRACT Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion o... more ABSTRACT Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their Indigenous knowledge (IK) in natural resource management (NRM) to fulfil their customary obligations to country and to exert their Native Title rights. Despite a legal and institutional framework for inclusion of IK in NRM, IK has so far been applied only sporadically. We conducted an ethnographic case study to investigate perceptions on IK, science and how they affect integration of the two knowledge systems in the Wet Tropics. Our results show that IK and science are perceived as different concepts; that integration is limited by weak Indigenous internal and external governance; and that stronger Aboriginal governance and more focused engagement strategies are required to further the application of IK in local NRM. We conclude by arguing that NRM in the Wet Tropics needs to be reconceptualised to accommodate IK holistically, by considering its epistemology and the values and ethic that underpin it.
The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond t... more The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change. In Australia, climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef, but is exacerbated by regional and local pressures. We undertook a scenario analysis to explore how two key uncertainties may influence these threats and their impact on the Great Barrier Reef and adjacent catchments in 2100: whether (1) global development and (2) Australian development is defined and pursued primarily in terms of economic growth or broader concepts of human well-being and environmental sustainability, and in turn, how climate change is managed and mitigated. We compared the implications of four scenarios for marine and terrestrial ecosystem services and human well-being. The results suggest that while regional actions can partially offset global inaction on climate change until about mid-century, there are probable threshold levels for marine ecosystems, beyond which the Great Barrier Reef will become a fundamentally different system by 2100 if climate change is not curtailed. Management that can respond to pressures at both global and regional scales will be needed to maintain the full range of ecosystem services. Modest improvements in human well-being appear possible even while ecosystem services decline, but only where regional management is strong. The future of the region depends largely on whether national and regional decision-makers choose to be active future ‘makers’ or passive future ‘takers’ in responding to global drivers of change. We conclude by discussing potential avenues for using these scenarios further with the Great Barrier Reef region’s stakeholders.
Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical fo... more Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical for meeting current and future societal needs, and requires specific governance and management policies. Using the literature, we identify seven generic policy-relevant principles for enhancing the resilience of desired ES in the face of disturbance and ongoing change in socialecological systems (SES). These principles are (P1) maintain diversity and redundancy, (P2) manage connectivity, (P3) manage slow variables and feedbacks, (P4) foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems (CAS), (P5) encourage learning and experimentation, (P6) broaden participation, and (P7) promote polycentric governance systems. We briefly define each principle, review how and when it enhances the resilience of ES, and conclude with major research gaps. In practice, the principles often co-occur and are highly interdependent. Key future needs are to better understand these interdependencies and to operationalize and apply the principles in different policy and management contexts.
Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical fo... more Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services (ES) that underpin human well-being is critical for meeting current and future societal needs, and requires specific governance and management policies. Using the literature, we identify seven generic policy-relevant principles for enhancing the resilience of desired ES in the face of disturbance and ongoing change in socialecological systems (SES). These principles are (P1) maintain diversity and redundancy, (P2) manage connectivity, (P3) manage slow variables and feedbacks, (P4) foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems (CAS), (P5) encourage learning and experimentation, (P6) broaden participation, and (P7) promote polycentric governance systems. We briefly define each principle, review how and when it enhances the resilience of ES, and conclude with major research gaps. In practice, the principles often co-occur and are highly interdependent. Key future needs are to better understand these interdependencies and to operationalize and apply the principles in different policy and management contexts.
As the human and financial costs of natural disasters rise and state finances continue to deplete... more As the human and financial costs of natural disasters rise and state finances continue to deplete, increasing attention is being placed on the role of the private sector to support disaster and climate resilience. However, not only is there a recognised lack of private finance to fill this gap, but international institutional and financing bodies tend to prioritise specific reactive response over preparedness and general resilience building. This paper utilises the central tenets of resilience thinking that have emerged from scholarship on social-ecological system resilience as a lens through which to assess investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR) for resilience. It draws on an established framework of resilience principles and examples of resilience investments to explore how resilience principles can actually inform decisions around DRR and resilience investing. It proposes some key lessons for diversifying sources of finance in order to, in turn, enhance "financial resilience". In doing so, it suggests a series of questions to align investments with resilience building, and to better balance the achievement of the resilience principles with financial requirements such as financial diversification and replicability. It argues for a critical look to be taken
The disposal of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park for port expansion at Abbot Po... more The disposal of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park for port expansion at Abbot Point in North Queensland, Australia, has been a contentious issue receiving extensive media coverage. The media has played a key role in representing different risk perceptions, and potentially influencing policy decision-making. This paper identifies different perceptions of risk portrayed by local, regional, interstate and national print media in relation to the dredge spoil issue from January 2013 until February 2014. Media analysis explored the questions: how is ‘risk’ represented, who is linked to different risk perceptions, and how has the media coverage of the issue changed over time? Results show that ‘risk’ to the Great Barrier Reef from the dredge spoil was framed by four main themes: Environmental Disaster, Socio-economic Disaster, Equilibrium and Industrialism. Environmental Disaster was the most prominent overall, and often positioned in opposition to Industrialism. In January 2013 the dredge spoil issue was mainly covered by local sources and focused on risks to local livelihoods and environments. By February 2014 the issue was covered by sources throughout Australia and represented a range of risks to the GBR, and its World Heritage status, in relation to coal mining and port developments. Insights for communication from this analysis include the importance of using clear language that provides exact and solid examples of risks, especially in light of the media's agenda-setting power and with an issue that the general public does not have direct experience.
At the start of Raphael Barth’s provocative documentary Aftermath, a bottle of Coca-Cola lands on... more At the start of Raphael Barth’s provocative documentary Aftermath, a bottle of Coca-Cola lands on a pristine beach. The image calls to mind the satirical 1980 film The Gods Must Be Crazy, in which the lives of Kalahari Desert tribal peoples are changed irreversibly by modernization. Barth’s is the true story of how foreign aid delivered to inhabitants of the Nicobar Islands after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami became a second disaster.
Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their I... more Aboriginal inhabitants of the Wet Tropics of Queensland advocate for greater inclusion of their Indigenous knowledge (IK) in natural resource management (NRM) to fulfil their customary obligations to country and to exert their Native Title rights. Despite a legal and institutional framework for inclusion of IK in NRM, IK has so far been applied only sporadically. We conducted an ethnographic case study to investigate perceptions on IK, science and how they affect integration of the two knowledge systems in the Wet Tropics. Our results show that IK and science are perceived as different concepts; that integration is limited by weak Indigenous internal and external governance; and that stronger Aboriginal governance and more focused engagement strategies are required to further the application of IK in local NRM. We conclude by arguing that NRM in the Wet Tropics needs to be reconceptualised to accommodate IK holistically, by considering its epistemology and the values and ethic that underpin it.
In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated wi... more In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of
provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional
culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can
address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province’s island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Jan 31, 2014
The process of learning in social-ecological systems is an emerging area of research, but little ... more The process of learning in social-ecological systems is an emerging area of research, but little attention has been given to how social and ecological interactions motivate or inhibit learning. This is highly relevant to the South African water sector, where a major policy transition is occurring that provides local water users and managers with new opportunities to engage in adaptive learning about how to balance human and ecological needs for water. In this paper, an agent-based model is used to explore potential 'learning dilemmas', or barriers to learning in the South African water sector, whereby human perceptions combined with social-ecological conditions affect the capacity, understanding, and willingness required to learn. Agents manage water according to different management strategies and use various indicators to evaluate their success. The model shows that in areas with highly variable hydrological regimes, agents may be less able to learn because conditions are too unpredictable for them to benefit from past experience. Because of these changing conditions, however, agents are more likely to try new water management strategies, promoting a greater diversity of experience in the system for agents to learn from in the future. In water-stressed areas, where agents tend to have greater difficulty fulfilling demand for water than in areas with abundant water supplies, they are also more apt to try new strategies. When learning is restricted to small areas, agents may learn more quickly but based on a more narrow range of experience than in larger or more heterogeneous areas. These results suggest a need to enhance learning so that it accounts for interacting hydrological, ecological, and social dynamics. Although the model is a highly stylised version of reality, this preliminary exploration may eventually help to reverse the past trend of poor understanding of social-ecological dynamics as they relate to water management.
"Ecology and Society’s 2004 special feature on Traditional Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems... more "Ecology and Society’s 2004 special feature on Traditional Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems (http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/issues/view.php/feature/13) marked one of the first efforts to view traditional, local, and Indigenous knowledge and their roles in managing ecosystems through the lens of social-ecological systems (SES) resilience. This view acknowledges the importance of experimentation, learning, and pluralism to cope with uncertainty in complex adaptive systems (Folke 2004, Folke et al. 2005, Berkes and Turner 2006, Davidson-Hunt 2006, Berkes 2009). As a frame for understanding knowledge, SES resilience provided new inspiration for scientists seeking to understand Indigenous livelihoods and resource management, increasingly against the backdrop of rapid global change (Armitage and Johnson 2006, Mercer et al. 2012, Raygorodetsky 2013).
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Papers by Erin Bohensky
are changed irreversibly by modernization. Barth’s is the true story of how foreign aid delivered to inhabitants of the Nicobar
Islands after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami became a second disaster.
provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional
culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can
address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province’s island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.
"
are changed irreversibly by modernization. Barth’s is the true story of how foreign aid delivered to inhabitants of the Nicobar
Islands after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami became a second disaster.
provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional
culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can
address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province’s island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.
"