Papers by Gbensuglo Bukari
Deleted Journal, Jan 16, 2024
This paper sought to establish the relationship between individual citizens' voting participation... more This paper sought to establish the relationship between individual citizens' voting participation in national elections and their felt socioeconomic outcomes in Ghana. The paper adopts a micro-level approach and utilises data from 600 sample respondents in four selected constituencies. The aim is to ascertain their views on various socioeconomic issues related to elections and felt individual and community outcomes. The data was analysed using standard multi-regression. The results established the relationship between the respondents' welfare and participation in voting in elections. The results revealed that the unique circumstances of voter choice in the electorally swing constituencies in the country are contingent on superior socioeconomic policies of an incumbent government or political parties in electoral competition with the aspiration to win political power and dominance in future electoral contests in Ghana. Therefore, based on the results, economic development through active participation in the political and electoral processes should place a premium on inclusive access of citizens to income, health, education, and employment opportunities.
The paper contributes to the burgeoning argument that there exists a relationship between peace a... more The paper contributes to the burgeoning argument that there exists a relationship between peace and development, and that this relationship is relevant for both political and economic governance. The pursuit of stability, peace, and security is paramount for sovereign states as they are foundational for a nation's well-being, development, and the prosperity of its citizens. Political economy of peace examines the intricate connections between economic and political factors and institutions, and the attainment of these essential objectives. Building on this conceptualisation, authors problematised peace, and hypothesised that there exists a relationship between peace, economy and politics. The paper examined this phenomenon, drawing on theoretical, conceptual and empirical perspectives. Employing exploratory study design, the paper combined in-depth interviews involving 10 participants with secondary data for the analysis. The analysis revealed that peace has become a major concern due to economic, political and ethical dilemmas in most sovereignty states, and that peace is a function of economic and political considerations.
Candidate selection procedures play a crucial role in shaping parliaments and influencing the qua... more Candidate selection procedures play a crucial role in shaping parliaments and influencing the quality of democracy. Yet, our understanding of what motivates parties to reform candidate selection mechanisms at specific points in time is limited. To address this gap, we examine the experience of Ghana's National Democratic Congress (NDC), which reformed its selection procedures in 2015 allowing all party members to vote in primary elections for parliamentary candidates. We ask what triggered these reforms and identify four motivations-the confluence of which explains why the reforms were adopted in 2015. These motivations were: making the party more democratic by expanding participation, reducing the cost of the primary process, building the party's organizational capacity, and keeping up with the party's main competitor. Together, these led NDC leaders to believe that reforms would benefit the party. However, a divergence between actual and intended effects meant some of these benefits were not realized, so the NDC reversed its reforms. This case suggests that the current shift towards more inclusive candidate selection mechanisms across parts of Africa will not be linear: party leaders will adopt such reforms when they believe it is in their party's interest.
This paper sought to establish the relationship between individual citizens' voting participation... more This paper sought to establish the relationship between individual citizens' voting participation in national elections and their felt socio-economic outcomes in Ghana. The paper adopts a micro-level approach and utilises data from 600 sample respondents in four selected constituencies. The aim is to ascertain their views on various socio-economic issues related to elections and felt individual and community outcomes. The data was analysed using standard multi-regression. The results established the relationship between the respondents' welfare and participation in voting in elections. The results revealed that the unique circumstances of voter choice in the electorally swing constituencies in the country are contingent on superior socioeconomic policies of an incumbent government or political parties in electoral competition with the aspiration to win political power and dominance in future electoral contests in Ghana. Therefore, based on the results, economic development through active participation in the political and electoral processes should place a premium on inclusive access of citizens to income, health, education, and employment opportunities.
Political parties, particularly the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Part... more Political parties, particularly the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP), have been vibrant in Ghana's democratic space in the Fourth Republic. This paper examines the historicity of the development of the NDC. It establishes how the structural organization of the NDC pitches its appeal and attracts electoral support as a supplementary variable. Scholarship on the variables of the electoral fortunes of political parties in Ghana in the Fourth Republic has focused essentially on factors such as ethnicity, clientelism, ideological positions, retrospective voting, and rational voting. Little space has been given to the extent to which the structural organisation of a party plays an important role in electoral outcomes. This paper shifts the discourse from the traditional narrative that focused on the factors of the electoral fortunes of political parties in Ghana in the Fourth Republic to the study of the structural organization of political parties. Adapting the political development model to the study of the historicity of the structure of the NDC, this paper examined the historical formation and structural organization of the party. Employing an explanatory case study design, data for the analysis were drawn from textual studies and key informant interviews. The paper argued that the voting Ghanaian public and citizens in general seemed to be heavily tilted towards the attributes, values and principles the NDC represents as a 'Third Political Force.' The paper recommends that the philosophy of the NDC and its identity should be intricately grounded in real social democratic ideals, principles, policies and activities with definite levels of certainty. This could define the Ghanaian public's identification with the NDC, its organization, mobilization, and support in elections in Ghana.
The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in G... more The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in Ghana during the Fourth Republican period from 1992 to 2016 based on effects of these elections on economic growth, government budget deficits, inflation and interest rates. Using annual data covering the period, 1992 to 2016, the analysis indicated that national elections did not lead to significant increase in annual economic growth as measured by the changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in government budget deficits during election years was established. Further, based on quarterly data covering 100 periods from 1992 to 2016, we showed that elections produced significantly higher levels of inflation and interest rates. Our study confirmed anecdotal evidence of worsening macroeconomic performance of the economy of Ghana as a result of national presidential elections which hurt ordinary Ghanaians especially those living on fixed incomes such as pensioners due to higher inflation, and also adversely affected small and medium scale businessmen as a result of increased borrowing costs from higher interest rates.
In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants infl uencing voter ... more In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants infl uencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that infl uenced citizens' political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the "Average District Voter" which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identifi cation with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly infl uenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.
This paper examined the political undercurrents of the re-emergence of military intervention in A... more This paper examined the political undercurrents of the re-emergence of military intervention in African politics. The objective of this paper is to ascertain the theoretical and empirical connection of this emerging phenomenon. Situated within the context of political modernization philosophy, we posit that the military appropriated its central command structure, differentiation, and specialization as well as popular identification in diverse ways as part of their strategies to control political power. Empirically, we draw mainly on textual data collected through remote research methods such as desk research and distant observation. The analysis is informed by the emerging political analysis of recent military coup d'état epidemics across Africa-Chad, Sudan, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. The main focus of our analysis is the supposition that, Africa's emerging democracy is under threat to fluff and flounder. This paper argues that stakeholders in a democracy need to act proactively to structurally address the putative democratic deficits that are eroding the dividends of democracy and its cardinal principles in Africa.
Res militaris, 2023
This paper analyzes the selection of presidential candidates in primary elections by
political pa... more This paper analyzes the selection of presidential candidates in primary elections by
political parties in Ghana’s Fourth Republic. It examines the formal intra-party rules and
regulations that govern primary elections for the selection of party presidential candidate, and
how this enhances Ghana’s democracy. Given that interpretation is central to this paper,
exploratory case design is adopted. Drawing from documented material and semi-structured
interviews, the results of analysis suggest that the intra-party primary election rules and
regulations of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) find
expression in the electoral laws as contained in the 1992 Constitution of Ghana. The results
show that there is no much variation in the intra-party rules of the two parties in their selection
of presidential candidates. Also, both the NDC and NPP use closed system of primaries (this
involved only registered party members who are elected and appointed executives, party
appointees and party elders). The only variation is explained in the nomination and filing fees.
The results of analysis further explained that the NDC and NPP have both departed from
‘National Delegates’ Congress System of presidential candidate selection to a ‘Nationwide
Voting System.’ The study also revealed that though, the NDC adopted an open primary system
in 2015, it has since reversed to the closed system of primary election in 2019. The study
concludes that the ways in which political parties select candidates play a crucial role in shaping
political debates and politics in Ghana. The paper therefore recommends that the intra-party
politics, primary elections, candidate selection and nomination methods should continue to be
conducted within the framework of modern liberal democratic principles anchored in the multiparty democratic framework of Ghana’s Fourth Republic.
Keywords: primary elections, political parties, democracy, presidential, voting, Ghana
African Affairs
Candidate selection procedures play a crucial role in shaping parliaments and influencing the qua... more Candidate selection procedures play a crucial role in shaping parliaments and influencing the quality of democracy. Yet, our understanding of what motivates parties to reform candidate selection mechanisms at specific points in time is limited. To address this gap, we examine the experience of Ghana’s National Democratic Congress (NDC), which reformed its selection procedures in 2015 allowing all party members to vote in primary elections for parliamentary candidates. We ask what triggered these reforms and identify four motivations—the confluence of which explains why the reforms were adopted in 2015. These motivations were: making the party more democratic by expanding participation, reducing the cost of the primary process, building the party’s organizational capacity, and keeping up with the party’s main competitor. Together, these led NDC leaders to believe that reforms would benefit the party. However, a divergence between actual and intended effects meant some of these benefi...
Africa Journal of Public Sector Development and Governance, Oct 1, 2018
Africa Journal of Public Sector Development and Governance
Africa Journal of Public Sector Development and Governance
Applied Economics and Finance, 2020
During the Fourth Republican electioneering era in Ghana, starting in November 1992, presidential... more During the Fourth Republican electioneering era in Ghana, starting in November 1992, presidential elections are conducted every four years. The 2000 and 2012 elections closely coincided with the national population censuses of 2000 and 2010, respectively. We constructed meso-level models, based on the concept of “average district voter”, to analyse factors influencing voter turnout rates. The results of the analysis indicated that voting was a normal good based on the estimated inelastic price and income elasticities of demand for this good. As expected, the cost of voting incurred by an individual negatively influenced turnout. The other significant negative factors influencing turnout rates included increasing male/female sex ratio (gender), increasing age-based dependency ratio (poverty burden), and disability.
Research in World Economy, 2019
We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation ... more We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most ...
Applied Economics and Finance, 2019
The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in G... more The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in Ghana during the Fourth Republican period from 1992 to 2016 based on effects of these elections on economic growth, government budget deficits, inflation and interest rates. Using annual data covering the period, 1992 to 2016, the analysis indicated that national elections did not lead to significant increase in annual economic growth as measured by the changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in government budget deficits during election years was established. Further, based on quarterly data covering 100 periods from 1992 to 2016, we showed that elections produced significantly higher levels of inflation and interest rates. Our study confirmed anecdotal evidence of worsening macroeconomic performance of the economy of Ghana as a result of national presidential elections which hurt ordinary Ghanaians especially those living on fixed incomes such as pensioners d...
Legon Journal of the Humanities
In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter p... more In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The ...
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Papers by Gbensuglo Bukari
political parties in Ghana’s Fourth Republic. It examines the formal intra-party rules and
regulations that govern primary elections for the selection of party presidential candidate, and
how this enhances Ghana’s democracy. Given that interpretation is central to this paper,
exploratory case design is adopted. Drawing from documented material and semi-structured
interviews, the results of analysis suggest that the intra-party primary election rules and
regulations of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) find
expression in the electoral laws as contained in the 1992 Constitution of Ghana. The results
show that there is no much variation in the intra-party rules of the two parties in their selection
of presidential candidates. Also, both the NDC and NPP use closed system of primaries (this
involved only registered party members who are elected and appointed executives, party
appointees and party elders). The only variation is explained in the nomination and filing fees.
The results of analysis further explained that the NDC and NPP have both departed from
‘National Delegates’ Congress System of presidential candidate selection to a ‘Nationwide
Voting System.’ The study also revealed that though, the NDC adopted an open primary system
in 2015, it has since reversed to the closed system of primary election in 2019. The study
concludes that the ways in which political parties select candidates play a crucial role in shaping
political debates and politics in Ghana. The paper therefore recommends that the intra-party
politics, primary elections, candidate selection and nomination methods should continue to be
conducted within the framework of modern liberal democratic principles anchored in the multiparty democratic framework of Ghana’s Fourth Republic.
Keywords: primary elections, political parties, democracy, presidential, voting, Ghana
political parties in Ghana’s Fourth Republic. It examines the formal intra-party rules and
regulations that govern primary elections for the selection of party presidential candidate, and
how this enhances Ghana’s democracy. Given that interpretation is central to this paper,
exploratory case design is adopted. Drawing from documented material and semi-structured
interviews, the results of analysis suggest that the intra-party primary election rules and
regulations of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) find
expression in the electoral laws as contained in the 1992 Constitution of Ghana. The results
show that there is no much variation in the intra-party rules of the two parties in their selection
of presidential candidates. Also, both the NDC and NPP use closed system of primaries (this
involved only registered party members who are elected and appointed executives, party
appointees and party elders). The only variation is explained in the nomination and filing fees.
The results of analysis further explained that the NDC and NPP have both departed from
‘National Delegates’ Congress System of presidential candidate selection to a ‘Nationwide
Voting System.’ The study also revealed that though, the NDC adopted an open primary system
in 2015, it has since reversed to the closed system of primary election in 2019. The study
concludes that the ways in which political parties select candidates play a crucial role in shaping
political debates and politics in Ghana. The paper therefore recommends that the intra-party
politics, primary elections, candidate selection and nomination methods should continue to be
conducted within the framework of modern liberal democratic principles anchored in the multiparty democratic framework of Ghana’s Fourth Republic.
Keywords: primary elections, political parties, democracy, presidential, voting, Ghana