Writing in March 2026
I’ve never experienced such a period as the current, when the possible futures are so diverse. Where things are changing so rapidly and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. It’s honestly unnerving. I find it soothing to break down the plausible options rather than be overwhelmed by infinite possibilities.
US Dictatorship
Might as well start with the bad news. I just watched the new movie Nuremberg. Its main premise is that Germans were not any different than any other people. Every country has people who would be willing to dehumanize and kill others if given a chance. It could happen here in the United States. We could fall into an autocracy, a dictatorship. We could have political violence at a national scale. We could turn into China as a surveillance state and they could start rounding up minorities (already happening at a small scale) or Jews. I shudder to think about this case.
I would try to fight, but what kind of resistance fighter would I be? Would I crumble at the first sign of true death? I might try to escape. I just don’t know.
This case sucks. I don’t want to think about it.
Likelihood: Low
Ecological Catastrophe
One of the most terrifying Wikipedia articles is about climate change tipping points. We are already past the point of no return and show no signs of fixing this problem. It’s not a question of IF but WHEN. 40% of all Americans live near the coast. (Source) If the sea levels rise worldwide, it will displace billions of people. This will lead to food shortages and mass chaos.
Everything we take for granted, food, healthcare, electricity, peace, and more will throw out the window.
Thought exercise:
What would happen to you if your region lost electricity for 4 weeks? You can’t buy anything, can’t charge anything. No one has land lines anymore. How would you get food? How would you get medical or any other kind of assistance? How quickly would it turn into a riot situation?
Most scientists think that by 2050, we will hit a doomsday outcome. (Source) It’s just 24 years away. A blink of the eye.
Likelihood by 2050: High
AI Snafu
This is the scenario where AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) becomes uncontrollable and kills all humans. In this scenario, the AI sees us as pests and that it would be better off without us.
Geoffrey Hinton, Godfather of AI, says there is 10% to 20% chance AI will lead to human extinction in three decades, as change moves fast.
(Source)
I actually think this is “projection” by humans to attribute evil intent to AGI. But it’s a possibility. If this happens, the good news is that we won’t have to worry about climate change and we also won’t have to work anymore.
Likelihood: 50% (Source)
AI Utopia
Finally, a not-horrible outcome!
In this scenario, AI treats us the way we treat our pets, not the way we treat invasive bugs. Think about Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
We regularly provide the bottom three for our pets. We do not give them the top two. My dog is mostly a prisoner in my home. I only let him out with a leash to “keep him safe”. Also, I don’t really think about his self-actualization. I don’t think of my dog as an equal. He is part of the family, but not equal to a human.
Despite it sounding bad, it might be good for AI to treat us the same way. Once I have the bottom three, I am in pretty good shape as a person. Most humans on Earth would be very happy to literally have the physiological and safety needs met. Many parts of the world do not provide people with these simple basics.
I think there will still be many “jobs” in this future for a long period of time. Fixing your roof is not a good case for AI until robotics achieves many orders of magnitude improvements.
All computer jobs would disappear and people would likely be given a Universal Basic Income to cover their needs. In this scenario, people would devote their time to more personally motivated endeavors, like art, music, reading, exercising, community activities, etc. Government and safety would be managed by AI to give each individual the best chance of happiness without diminishing the happiness of others. Additionally, AI would figure out a way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and desalinate water.
Likelihood: 50% (Source)
Nothing really changes
This is a weird outcome. It would be just more of the same for the next 50 years. No ecological disaster, no AI takeover, no dictatorship. Just a progression similar to the last 50 years.
This is the assumption and basis by which most people live their lives. People (including me) are saving money for retirement. We are thinking about who to vote for in the next election. We are buying gas cars for our children. We are living as if tomorrow will look like today.
The emotional reason for this belief is that the last 50 years has been a step-by-step progression. As humans, we tend to believe that past predicts the future. This is obviously not true in all cases, but we are hard wired to believe it is. It is emotionally, if not logically, apealing.
In this scenario, all of my predictions seem like the ravings of a lunatic. I would be the proverbial Chicken Little.
It’s possible, but it just feels like this time is different.
Likelihood: Low
Summary
Utopia, Catastrophe, maybe nothing. Who knows? I really need a crystal ball! I would so much better if I just knew exactly what is going to happen. Wouldn’t you?
Whatya think?