Papers by Md. Didarul Hasan
Journal of global peace and conflicts, 2017
We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contr... more We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contrary to the existing literature, we assume that both resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous. We examine some policy options for the international community as well as for the conflict-affected country. We find that current sanction on resource exports is always counter-productive. However, a threat of future sanction unambiguously reduces conflict. An improvement in agricultural productivity may also limit the conflict. Our results also suggest that the most effective policy for conflict resolution is a bilateral piecemeal reduction in war efforts.
Natural resources and civil conflicts: Policy analysis under general equilibrium
International Journal of Peace and Development Studies, Dec 31, 2017
In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resourc... more In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resources and civil conflict has been developed. Unlike existing literature, both resource extraction and wage rate are considered as endogenous during the conflict. The main purpose of the paper is to examine policy options for international community to limit the conflict intensity. It has been found out that a current international sanction will reduce civil conflict if the wage rate is fixed. However, when the wage rate is endogenous, the effect of current sanction is uncertain. Productivity improvement in agricultural sector may also subside the conflict. The study results also suggest that a bilateral piece-meal reduction in war efforts is the most effective policy for conflict reduction. Key words: Natural resources, civil conflicts, general equilibrium, sanctions.
Natural resources and civil conflicts: Policy analysis under general equilibrium
In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resourc... more In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resources and civil conflict has been developed. Unlike existing literature, both resource extraction and wage rate are considered as endogenous during the conflict. The main purpose of the paper is to examine policy options for international community to limit the conflict intensity. It has been found out that a current international sanction will reduce civil conflict if the wage rate is fixed. However, when the wage rate is endogenous, the effect of current sanction is uncertain. Productivity improvement in agricultural sector may also subside the conflict. The study results also suggest that a bilateral piece-meal reduction in war efforts is the most effective policy for conflict reduction. Key words: Natural resources, civil conflicts, general equilibrium, sanctions.
Journal of Global Peace and Conflict, 2017
We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contr... more We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contrary to the existing literature, we assume that both resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous. We examine some policy options for the international community as well as for the conflict-affected country. We find that current sanction on resource exports is always counter-productive. However, a threat of future sanction unambiguously reduces conflict. An improvement in agricultural productivity may also limit the conflict. Our results also suggest that the most effective policy for conflict resolution is a bilateral piecemeal reduction in war efforts.
Trade Liberalization and Export Performance of Bangladesh
Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of …, 2005
This paper evaluates the export performance of Bangladesh after trade liberalization in the early... more This paper evaluates the export performance of Bangladesh after trade liberalization in the early 1990s. The trade-GOP ratio of Bangladesh has increased significantly during 1990s, reflecting greater openness of the economy to the external world. Bangladesh also achieved fairly high growths in exports in that period compared to previous decades. The structure of export has changed significantly, shifting from primary goods to manufacturing goods, and from traditional to non-traditional items. The ready made garments (RMG) has emerged as the single most dominant export item, which now accounts for almost 80 per cent of total exports. However, the export of Bangladesh is highly concentrated ill both Commodity and market dimensions, which reflects the weakness and vulnerability of the export sector.
Effects of Civil Conflicts on Development: A Literature Review
This dissertation examines, both theoretically and empirically, the effects of international poli... more This dissertation examines, both theoretically and empirically, the effects of international policies, especially of sanctions, on conflicts. In theoretical analysis, we consider conflicts (both civil and interstate) related to natural resources and examine how sanctions on natural resource exports affect the intensity of conflicts. However, for the empirical analysis, we consider only the civil conflicts and examine how international sanctions affect the duration of civil conflicts. In chapter 1, we develop a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resources and civil conflicts. Contrary to the most of the existing literature, we assume that resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous during the conflict. We find that the effects of current international sanctions on civil conflict depend critically on whether the budget constraints of the warring groups are binding or non-binding, and whether wage rate is exogenous or endogenous. Under both bi...
We develop a two-period general equilibrium model linking natural resources to inter-country conf... more We develop a two-period general equilibrium model linking natural resources to inter-country conflict, treating resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous. First, we characterize the war equilibrium and derive a number of properties of it. Second, we examine the effects of different types of trade sanctions imposed by the international community on war efforts of the two countries. We find that a temporary current sanction on both countries, or even on one of the countries, will be counter-productive, and an anticipated future sanction on both countries will unambiguously reduce war intensity. Whether an anticipated future sanction on one of countries will reduce war intensity will depend on the level of resource stock; the effect of a permanent sanction on both countries is ambiguous: war intensities will fall only if the resource stocks of the countries are sufficiently high.
We examine the effects of international sanctions on the expected duration of civil conflicts, us... more We examine the effects of international sanctions on the expected duration of civil conflicts, using civil wars and sanctions data for the period of 1960 2008. We do so by estimating the hazard rate of war termination due to sanctions. Contrary to most of the previous findings, we find that international sanctions, at the aggregate level, do reduce the expected duration of civil conflicts. Our findings are robust with respect to different controls, different parametric models, and the consideration of endogeneity of sanctions. However, not all types of sanctions are equally successful in shortening conflicts. Total economic embargoes and arms sanctions are effective, but trade sanctions, aid suspension, and other sanctions are not. We also find that both multilateral and unilateral sanctions reduce the duration of civil wars. JEL Classification: C41, D74, F51, O19
Journal of Global Peace and Conflict, 2017
We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contr... more We develop a two-period model linking natural resources to civil conflicts led by warlords. Contrary to the existing literature, we assume that both resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous. We examine some policy options for the international community as well as for the conflict-affected country. We find that current sanction on resource exports is always counter-productive. However, a threat of future sanction unambiguously reduces conflict. An improvement in agricultural productivity may also limit the conflict. Our results also suggest that the most effective policy for conflict resolution is a bilateral piecemeal reduction in war efforts.
International Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies (IJPCS), 2017
We examine the effects of international sanctions on the expected duration of civil conflicts, us... more We examine the effects of international sanctions on the expected duration of civil conflicts, using civil wars and sanctions data for the period of 1960-2008. We do so by estimating the hazard rate of war termination due to sanctions. Contrary to most of the previous findings, we find that international sanctions, at the aggregate level, do reduce the expected duration of civil conflicts. Our findings are robust with respect to different controls, different parametric models, and the consideration of endogeneity of sanctions. However, not all types of sanctions are equally successful in shortening conflicts. Total economic embargoes and arms sanctions are effective, but trade sanctions, aid suspension, and other sanctions are not. We also find that both multilateral and unilateral sanctions reduce the duration of civil wars.
International Journal of Peace and Development Studies, 2017
In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resourc... more In this paper, a two-period general equilibrium model on the relationship between natural resources and civil conflict has been developed. Unlike existing literature, both resource extraction and wage rate are considered as endogenous during the conflict. The main purpose of the paper is to examine policy options for international community to limit the conflict intensity. It has been found out that a current international sanction will reduce civil conflict if the wage rate is fixed. However, when the wage rate is endogenous, the effect of current sanction is uncertain. Productivity improvement in agricultural sector may also subside the conflict. The study results also suggest that a bilateral piecemeal reduction in war efforts is the most effective policy for conflict reduction.
The Chittagong University Journal of Business Administration , 2003
This paper examines the export performance of South Asia in the context of rapid trade liberaliza... more This paper examines the export performance of South Asia in the context of rapid trade liberalization in the early 1990s. The trade-GDP ratios of most of the South Asian countries have increased significantly during the 1990s, indicating the greater openness of the region to the world. Most of the countries also achieved relatively high growth in exports after liberalization. The commodity composition of South Asian exports shows that, these countries mainly export labour-intensive manufactures such as textile and clothing, except India, where exports are relatively diversified. The lion share of South Asian exports goes to the developed world, which implies that the region s export volumes depend largely on economic condition of the developed countries. Thus, the exports of South Asia are not only less diversified in commodity dimension, but also in market dimension. However, The immediate challenge for some South Asian countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal is to prepare their textile and garment industry for the post MFA regime. After the abolishment of MFA quotas these countries are now facing intense competition from China and Southeast Asian countries in the worlds textile and clothing markets.
International Journal of Development and Conflict, 2015
We develop a two-period general equilibrium model linking natural resources to inter-country conf... more We develop a two-period general equilibrium model linking natural resources to inter-country conflict, treating resource extraction and wage rate are endogenous. First, we characterize the war equilibrium and derive a number of properties of it. Second, we examine the effects of different types of trade sanctions imposed by the international community on war efforts of the two countries. We find that a temporary current sanction on both countries, or even on one of the countries, will be counter-productive, and an anticipated future sanction on both countries will unambiguously reduce war intensity. Whether an anticipated future sanction on one of countries will reduce war intensity will depend on the level of resource stock; the effect of a permanent sanction on both countries is ambiguous: war intensities will fall only if the resource stocks of the countries are sufficiently high.
The Cost and Management, 2005
This paper evaluates the export performance of Bangladesh after trade liberalization in the early... more This paper evaluates the export performance of Bangladesh after trade liberalization in the early 1990s. The trade-GOP ratio of Bangladesh has increased significantly during 1990s, reflecting greater openness of the economy to the external world. Bangladesh also achieved fairly high growths in exports in that period compared to previous decades. The structure of export has changed significantly, shifting from primary goods to manufacturing goods, and from traditional to non-traditional items. The ready made garments (RMG) has emerged as the single most dominant export item, which now accounts for
almost 80 per cent of total exports. However, the export of Bangladesh is highly concentrated ill both Commodity and market dimensions, which reflects the weakness and vulnerability of the export sector.
This paper measures the export competitiveness in South Asia using export similarity index as a t... more This paper measures the export competitiveness in South Asia using export similarity index as a tool. In fact this is the first attempt to measure exports similarity in South Asia. The paper shows that export similarity between India and other SAARC countries is not high enough to justify low level of intra-regional trade. Moreover, the exports similarity is decreasing with the trade liberalization, which was initiated in the early 1990's, implying that the export competitiveness in South Asia is easing through time.
The Chittagong University Journal of Business Administration, 2011
This paper examines the degree of aid dependency of Bangladesh economy. The aid scenario of the c... more This paper examines the degree of aid dependency of Bangladesh economy. The aid scenario of the country has been changing during the last two decades not only in terms of sources and volume of aid, but also in terms of sectoral allocation and utilization. More importantly, though ODA is still a significance source of foreign exchange, its importance has declined over the years as the exports and remittances picked up. As the economy has grown, the flow of aid as a proportion of GDP or percentage of investment has declined over time. While in the early post independent period ODA financed entire ADP, now it is financing less than 50 percent of ADP. Thus, the overall dependency of the economy on foreign aid has reduced. Despite that the role of aid in dealing with critical issues and goals, some of which are directly and indirectly related to MDGs, cannot be undermined. The contribution of ODA is still very significant in different development projects, especially in health, education and physical infrastructure. As a result, the influence of donors in policy matters has paradoxically increased significantly.
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Papers by Md. Didarul Hasan
almost 80 per cent of total exports. However, the export of Bangladesh is highly concentrated ill both Commodity and market dimensions, which reflects the weakness and vulnerability of the export sector.
almost 80 per cent of total exports. However, the export of Bangladesh is highly concentrated ill both Commodity and market dimensions, which reflects the weakness and vulnerability of the export sector.