Papers by Calvin Blackwell
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Aug 1, 2018
We assess the goodness-of-fit of multiple possible distributions to real estate price data from C... more We assess the goodness-of-fit of multiple possible distributions to real estate price data from Charleston County, South Carolina. We find that the best fit distribution lies somewhere between the lognormal and power law distributions. We find that some evidence that distributional information is correlated with the presence of a price "bubble" in the real estate market.
The journal of prediction markets, Dec 19, 2012
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unkno... more In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of the administration of a medium-sized university were asked to predict the number of freshmen deposits the university would receive by its spring deadline. Contest participants were told that the contest participant who submitted the most accurate guess would receive a $100 prize. With this incentive-compatible mechanism in place, the average guess from the contest was used as a forecast for the number of deposits. This forecast was at least as accurate as any other simple forecast method.
National Tax Journal, Jun 1, 2004
This paper examines the process by which firms are selected for a sales tax audit and the determi... more This paper examines the process by which firms are selected for a sales tax audit and the determinants of subsequent firm compliance behavior, focusing upon the Gross Receipts Tax in New Mexico. A two-stage selection model is used to estimate the State's audit selection rule and, conditional upon audit selection, the firm's compliance choice. The first-stage estimation results indicate that auditors select returns based upon a systematic, even if informal, audit rule. The second-stage results show that firms that exhibit greater variation in deductions, provide services, miss filing deadlines, and have an out-of-state mailing address have a lower compliance rate.
Applied Economics, May 7, 2023
Applied Economics Letters, Mar 16, 2019
Open and semi-open primaries allow members of opposing political parties to participate in the se... more Open and semi-open primaries allow members of opposing political parties to participate in the selection of candidates for the general election. This feature has led to the claim that partisans will 'cross-over' and vote in the rival party's primary, thereby sabotaging that party's selection process. Using an experimental election, in which it is costly to vote, we find that most voters vote sincerely or not at all, and find little evidence of strategic voting.
Economics Letters, 2015
h i g h l i g h t s • We fit power law distributions to the distributions of overall US income an... more h i g h l i g h t s • We fit power law distributions to the distributions of overall US income and CEO compensation. • We test the hypothesis that inequality in CEO compensation mirrors inequality in overall income. • We find evidence that CEO compensation inequality is correlated with US income inequality.
Social Science Research Network, 2020
Many financial scandals appear to depend on a lack of skepticism on the part of their victims. Fo... more Many financial scandals appear to depend on a lack of skepticism on the part of their victims. For example, sophisticated investors trusted Bernie Madoff, despite early warning signs of implausible returns. Our study investigates how education and personality explain skeptical behavior in financial decision making. In a simple survey, economics and finance students are asked to make an investment recommendation from among four different hypothetical funds, including one based on Madoff’s fund. We find that perceptions of the suspiciousness and ethicality of the Madoff fund affect a participant’s recommendation. In turn, these perceptions are affected by education and personality, with more education leading to higher suspicions.
Journal of Socio-economics, Jul 1, 2004
Undergraduate Economic Review, Feb 11, 2011
This research explores one possible explanation for market efficiency, the Marginal Trader Hypoth... more This research explores one possible explanation for market efficiency, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis (MTH), which holds that a small group of active and well-informed traders are responsible for steering market price to efficient levels. We test the appropriateness of the MTH by conducting a series of experimental asset markets; information regarding the asset's value was introduced to the markets so as to evaluate the impact on market efficiency and the role of the "insider" in steering market price. The results indicate that traders conformed to the median of three possible values, though prices failed to converge to a Rational Expectations equilibrium.
Journal of Economics and Finance, Jun 25, 2009
The Marginal Trader Hypothesis (Forsythe et al. 1992, in American Economic Review 82(5): 1142–116... more The Marginal Trader Hypothesis (Forsythe et al. 1992, in American Economic Review 82(5): 1142–1161) posits that a small group of well-informed traders keep an asset’s market price equal to its fundamental value. Forsythe et al. base this claim on evidence from U.S. presidential prediction markets. We test the Marginal Trader Hypothesis by examining a decision task that precludes marginal traders.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Sep 1, 2003
While public goods are defined as non-rival and non-excludable, there are degrees of excludabilit... more While public goods are defined as non-rival and non-excludable, there are degrees of excludability. This paper reports on the results of a series of experiments designed to investigate the role of preferences on individual willingness to contribute to the provision of a group (excludable) versus a global (non-excludable) public good. The results of this experiment show that when the average per capita return (APCR) to society of the global public good exceeds the APCR to society of the group public good, individuals contribute more to the global good but do not reduce their contributions to the group public good.
Social Science Research Network, 2011
We describe a project introduced in an environmental economics course that engaged students in cr... more We describe a project introduced in an environmental economics course that engaged students in critical action. Critical action takes students beyond critical thinking, teaching them to think critically in analysing classroom material and to frame action critically with the intention of fostering social change. In this application, students were asked to analyse and question the neoclassical rational actor model, and then design a project to simultaneously test this model and undertake a socially beneficial activity. The students' reactions to the project are presented and analysed.
Social Science Research Network, 2010
ABSTRACT In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding... more ABSTRACT In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of the administration of a medium-sized university were asked to predict the number of freshmen deposits the university would receive by its spring deadline. Contest participants were told that the contest participant who submitted the most accurate guess would receive a $100 prize. With this incentive-compatible mechanism in place, the average guess from the contest was used as a forecast for the number of deposits. This forecast was at least as accurate as any other simple forecast method.
Social Science Research Network, 2005
This paper examines the process by which firms are selected for a sales tax audit and the determi... more This paper examines the process by which firms are selected for a sales tax audit and the determinants of subsequent firm compliance behavior, focusing upon the Gross Receipts Tax in New Mexico. A two-stage selection model is used to estimate the State's audit selection rule and, conditional upon audit selection, the firm's compliance choice. The first-stage estimation results indicate that auditors select returns based upon a systematic, even if informal, audit rule. The second-stage results show that firms that exhibit greater variation in deductions, provide services, miss filing deadlines, and have an out-of-state mailing address have a lower compliance rate.
Natural Hazards Review, Aug 1, 2015
AbstractRecent research indicates that the energy generated by hurricanes follows a power law dis... more AbstractRecent research indicates that the energy generated by hurricanes follows a power law distribution. The authors hypothesize that economic damages caused by hurricanes also follow a power law distribution. Using yearly hurricane damage data from 1900 to 2005 the authors show that the distribution of yearly damages due to hurricanes in the United States may follow either a power law or lognormal distribution. Furthermore, if the distribution of damages follows a power law, then for the best-fit distribution, the tail of the distribution is so fat that the variance of damages, conditional on being in the tail, is potentially unbounded.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2014
ABSTRACT The author presents an enhanced version of Bergstrom and Miller’s (Bergstrom, T.C. and J... more ABSTRACT The author presents an enhanced version of Bergstrom and Miller’s (Bergstrom, T.C. and J.H. Miller. 1999. Experiments with Economic Principles: Microeconomics Irwin McGraw-Hill: Boston) bargaining experiment. This improved version is simpler to implement and generates a more robust classroom discussion.
Southern Business Review, Apr 1, 2007
Review of behavioral economics, Nov 9, 2017
In this experiment we examine the impact of hugs (a pro-social behavior) upon behavior in the Joy... more In this experiment we examine the impact of hugs (a pro-social behavior) upon behavior in the Joy of Destruction (JoD) game. Previous research on JoD indicates that up to 40% of experimental participants will choose to lower another participant's earnings even in the absence of any incentive to do so. Building upon previous work indicating that hugs cause oxytocin to be released in the human brain, and that oxytocin can increase “moral” behavior, we hypothesize that hugging will reduce the spiteful behavior typically exhibited in the JoD. We find evidence to support this hypothesis. We also examine the role of personality, and find no correlation between scores on either the Big Five Inventory or the Mach-IV Inventory and behavior in the JoD.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 2007
The Andrew Young School of Policy Studies was established at Georgia State University with the ob... more The Andrew Young School of Policy Studies was established at Georgia State University with the objective of promoting excellence in the design, implementation, and evaluation of public policy. In addition to two academic departments (economics and public administration), the Andrew Young School houses seven leading research centers and policy programs, including the International Studies Program. The mission of the International Studies Program is to provide academic and professional training, applied research, and technical assistance in support of sound public policy and sustainable economic growth in developing and transitional economies. The International Studies Program at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies is recognized worldwide for its efforts in support of economic and public policy reforms through technical assistance and training around the world. This reputation has been built serving a diverse client base, including the World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), finance ministries, government organizations, legislative bodies and private sector institutions. The success of the International Studies Program reflects the breadth and depth of the in-house technical expertise that the International Studies Program can draw upon. The Andrew Young School's faculty are leading experts in economics and public policy and have authored books, published in major academic and technical journals, and have extensive experience in designing and implementing technical assistance and training programs. Andrew Young School faculty have been active in policy reform in over 40countries around the world. Our technical assistance strategy is not to merely provide technical prescriptions for policy reform, but to engage in a collaborative effort with the host government and donor agency to identify and analyze the issues at hand, arrive at policy solutions and implement reforms. The International Studies Program specializes in four broad policy areas: Fiscal policy, including tax reforms, public expenditure reviews, tax administration reform Fiscal decentralization, including fiscal decentralization reforms, design of intergovernmental transfer systems, urban government finance Budgeting and fiscal management, including local government budgeting, performancebased budgeting, capital budgeting, multi-year budgeting Economic analysis and revenue forecasting, including micro-simulation, time series forecasting, For more information about our technical assistance activities and training programs, please
Social Science Research Network, 2018
We examine the hypothesis that capitalist economies generate inequality by looking at the distrib... more We examine the hypothesis that capitalist economies generate inequality by looking at the distribution of wealth in a virtual world. Employing the sandbox video game Minecraft as an example of a "pure" market economy, we chose several Minecraft economy servers and collected their respective wealth data. We found these unregulated economies to have greater wealth inequality than any single nation's economy. These results suggest that market economies generate significant "natural" inequality, and that government policies are effective in moderating the inequality-inducing impact of capitalism.
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Papers by Calvin Blackwell