Papers by Roberto Coscarelli
Environmental Processes, Jul 26, 2020
Climate change could increase the risk of future hydrological extremes over large regional areas ... more Climate change could increase the risk of future hydrological extremes over large regional areas and trigger further pressure on water resource availability. In this study, the overall characteristics of dry and wet spells during a 56-year period (1951-2006) were analysed in the Calabria region (southern Italy), considering both yearly and seasonal scales. In particular, the mean and maximum lengths of dry/wet spells, the number of dry and wet spells with different lengths, and the contribution of dry/wet spells with different lengths to the total number of dry/wet days have been investigated. The results showed similar behaviour of both dry and wet spells in the spatial distribution of the mean lengths, with a difference between the two opposite sides (Ionian and Tyrrhenian) of the region. In fact, mean values ranging between 6 and 8 days, and higher than 8 days have been detected on the Tyrrhenian and on the Ionian side, respectively. The results regarding the maximum values of the lengths show much higher values of dry spells than the wet ones, and different temporal distributions throughout the year. In particular, with respect to dry spells, in autumn the maximum lengths reached values higher than 200 days, while the longest wet spells have been identified in winter, with a maximum value of 44 consecutive days with rain. The outcomes of this study can be useful for both water resources (with respect to the dry sequences) and risk reduction (regarding the wet spells) management.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Climate change effects already represent a serious challenge for people and environment. In parti... more Climate change effects already represent a serious challenge for people and environment. In particular, changes in precipitation, temperature, and weather systems are increasing the occurrence frequency of natural phenomena such as floods and landslides with consequent negative impacts in exposure and vulnerability of population living in risk areas. Hence, it is important to assess the social vulnerability and the community resilience which describe the ability of social systems to prepare for, absorb, and adapt to risks induced by climate change. In two sample areas located along the Tyrrhenian side of Calabria (Amantea and Lago municipalities, Southern Italy), we performed a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) of community resilience. Based on previous literature, we have selected five macro-indicators of social resilience (awareness, knowledge, information, trust, and social background). As sub-indicators for the characterization of these macro-indicators, we used the answer...
<p>The most frequent and widespread landslides all over the world are induced by prolonged ... more <p>The most frequent and widespread landslides all over the world are induced by prolonged or heavy rainfall events. These phenomena often cause casualties and damages. Recent research on climate change has evidencing the link between the rainfall tendencies and the increase of damaging geohydrological events. This study has been carried out in the ambit of the EC Project INDECIS, whose aim is to develop an integrated approach to produce a series of climate indicators aimed at the high priority sectors of the Global Framework for Climate Services of the World Meteorological Organization (agriculture, risk reduction, energy, health, water), with the addition of tourism. The study area is Calabria, a region of Southern Italy frequently affected by mass movements and characterized by a highly variable climate. In this study, landslide occurrences in the period 1990-2018 have been collected for the whole territory of Calabria, and clustered according to the five provinces of the region. Moreover, 13 rainfall-based climatic indexes, among those proposed in the INDECIS project, have been calculated for each of the 79 rain gauges presenting complete and homogeneous databases. For each province and for the whole Calabria, the average and the maximum values of the climatic indices have been compared with the landslide occurrences in each year. The comparisons showed the best agreements with the following climatic indices: a) the total annual precipitation (RTA), the annual count of days when daily precipitation amount &#8805; 10mm (R10mm), the annual count of days when daily precipitation amount &#8805; 20mm (R20mm), the annual total precipitation when daily rainfall is greater than 95<sup>th</sup>-percentile (R95TOT) and, secondarily, the annual count of days with daily rainfall >= 50 mm (D50mm). For the best matches, the curves interpolating the two databases have been also drawn. The obtained results can be useful to predict the impacts that tendencies of rainfall indices patterns can have on slope stabilities of the territory.</p><p>Acknowledgments:</p><p>The Project INDECIS is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462)</p>
Climate of the Past, 2021
The European drought of 1921 is assessed in terms of its impacts on society and in terms of its p... more The European drought of 1921 is assessed in terms of its impacts on society and in terms of its physical characteristics. The development of impacts of the drought are categorized by a systematic survey of newspaper reports from five European newspapers covering the area from England to the Czech Republic and other parts of Europe. This is coupled to a reconstruction of daily temperature and precipitation based on meteorological measurements to quantify the drought severity and extent, and reanalysis data are used to identify its drivers. This analysis shows that the first impacts of the drought started to appear in early spring and lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming. The dominant impact in western Europe is on agriculture and livestock farming while in central Europe the effects of wildfires were reported on most often. The peak in the number of reports is in late summer. Preceding the first impacts was the dry autumn of 1920 and winter 1920-1921. The area hardest hit by the drought in the following spring and summer was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon, but a vast stretch of the continent, from Ireland to the Ukraine, was affected. The reported impacts on water supply and water-borne transport in that region were matched by an analysis of the hydrological situation over the Seine catchment. On average, the 1921 summer was not particularly hot, but the heatwave which was observed at the end of July saw temperatures matching those of the heatwaves in modern summers. Similar to modern droughts, an anticyclone was present roughly over the British Isles, maintaining sunny and dry weather in Europe and steering away cyclones to the north. Its persistence makes it exceptional in comparison to modern droughts. The 1921 drought stands out as the most severe and most widespread drought in Europe since the start of the 20th century. The precipitation deficit in all seasons was large, but in none of the seasons in 1920 and 1921 was the precipitation deficit the largest on record. The severity of the 1921 drought relates to the conservative nature of drought which amplifies Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2202 G. van der Schrier et al.: 1921 drought the lack of precipitation in autumn and winter into the following spring and summer.
Key Challenges in Geography, 2019
This chapter seeks to analyze the new processes of the Anthropocene epoch by examining, in the fi... more This chapter seeks to analyze the new processes of the Anthropocene epoch by examining, in the first part, the relationship with human geography and geoethics. In fact, Anthropocene is also faced with an ethical and cultural perspective. Geoethics focuses on how scientists (natural and social), arts and humanities scholars working in tandem can become more aware of their ethical responsibilities to guide society on matters related to public safety in the face of natural hazards, sustainable use of resources, climate change, and protection of the environment. Furthermore, some case studies in the Mediterranean basin, where the transformations imposed by human action and society on the Earth’s environment are evident, will be analyzed in relation to Disaster Risk Reduction practices: social perception and communication, community resilience, participative approaches, using CIGIS and neogeographic technologies. These case studies constitute some examples of “geographies and cartographies of the Anthropocene”. In this framework, two case studies in the Central Mediterranean will be analyzed with the support of Web 2.0 and geohydrological risk perception using Community Integrated GIS.
Climate Services, 2021
Abstract This article presents an exploratory methodology to co-create climate services for the t... more Abstract This article presents an exploratory methodology to co-create climate services for the tourism sector together with local stakeholders, emphasizing focus groups as an essential step for obtaining relevant data throughout the process. The article describes the user engagement for defining the optimal conditions for tourism in four different types of destinations in terms of tourist specialisation in Spain (Jacetania Council in the Aragon Pyrenees, the city of Calvia on the island of Majorca; the city of Barcelona and the Barcelona Coast) and Italy (Sila National Park) This methodology involves a sequence of steps to extract and validate such information through engagement, with destination stakeholders along the value chain (from accommodation managers to destination planners as well as final users). The process facilitates the design of numerical indices based on the information collected (from qualitative to quantitative data). Our methodology is suitable for application in other contexts and tourism activities where the subjective perception of weather and climate plays a role, as well as in other sectors.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp... more &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;The scientific community agrees that climate change is generating a series of direct/indirect impacts on the environment and on humans that cannot be underestimated anymore. Consequently, it becomes urgent and necessary to know how this phenomenon affects ecosystems, productive activities and human well-being in order to plan measures for mitigation and adaptation. One sector whose performance is closely related to climate trends is tourism. The influence that climate change can have on tourism determines the need for adopting appropriate strategies to guarantee the sustainability of tourist destinations.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;In order to develop models and tools for the near-real-time acquisition of climate data and for spatial interpolation, visualization and communication of climate monitoring to territorial stakeholders, the INDECIS project has involved a partnership of experts in the climate sector, from 12 European countries. The INDECIS Project intends to develop an integrated approach to produce a series of climate indicators aimed at the high priority sectors of the Global Framework for Climate Services of the World Meteorological Organization (agriculture, risk reduction, energy, health, water), with the addition of tourism.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;With regards to the tourism sector, the territory of the Sila National Park (Calabria, southern Italy) has been selected as a study area for the acquisition of sectorial data on tourism (in particular, attendance data and tourist arrivals) and for the realization of a Workshop useful for the identification and enhancement of climate services that should be provided to stakeholders of the tourist destination, based on their needs. The Workshop was organized with three focus groups related to the following tourism activities: snow tourism, water and lake tourism, and earth tourism. Within the focus groups, the identified stakeholders - hotel groups, local associations, tourist agencies, parks, etc. - were able to highlight their needs in relation to the climate services that the INDECIS Project intends to offer.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;From the results it emerges how the stakeholders consider essential, in the case of long-term forecasts regarding both positive and negative weather conditions for their activities, to start a synergy between the institutional, the economic and social networks to undertake a joint action. In the case of a positive forecast, these actions could consist in increasing the tourist offer, building new infrastructures, planning new investments, and in the realization of promotional actions to attract further customers. In the case of negative forecasts, the stakeholders proposed the development of a new tourist destination model, as an alternative to the existing one, with new activities that could adapt to the new climatic conditions.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;In this context, the local community is the key component of the destination and the main stakeholder in tourism planning. Therefore, it is essential to pay attention to communities and work in the context of tourist destinations on a local scale to encourage mitigation and adaptation to climate change.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;…
Engineering Geology, 2018
Slope failures are the result of various predisposing factors (geo-structural and morphological c... more Slope failures are the result of various predisposing factors (geo-structural and morphological conditions, topography, geotechnical characteristics , etc.). In an ordinary phase, a typical slope stability analysis includes the identification of factors that can trigger a slope failure, its mechanisms, the modelling of stability conditions and their assessment during critical situations. To define the predisposing and triggering factors , integrated monitoring represents an essential and powerful tool. In this paper, referring to the case study of a medium-deep landslide that occurred in Calabria (Southern Italy) during the winter of 2009-2010, a method and means of defining an emergency geotechnical model (smart geotechnical model) using a geological model are proposed. The definition of both models considers the resources that may be obtained in an emergency and the short time available to achieve the objectives (protection of public and private safety, restoration of normal conditions, etc.). The proposed method allows the orderly and systematic acquisition, under emergency conditions, of data that are useful for the management of a particular situation and for defining an initial cognitive state of the problem. These elements can be particularly effective in both emergency (to manage risk using progressively quantitative knowledge) and ordinary conditions to plan, design, realize and manage definitive measures for risk adaptation, mitigation and reduction. Moreover, the same knowledge can provide useful references to typify landslides that occur in similar geo-environmental contexts.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017
Risk perception is a cognitive process whose aim is to guide people's behaviour in ordinary activ... more Risk perception is a cognitive process whose aim is to guide people's behaviour in ordinary activities to reduce the impact of extreme events. In fact, the analysis of risk perception can be considered as a part of risk reduction strategies and adaptation measures. In this paper, the perception of the geo-hydrological risk by the population living or working in a stretch of the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria (Southern Italy) is analysed. The study area has recently been affected by debris flow events, with damages to private and public facilities, as well as infrastructures. In particular, the study, based on a questionnaire survey, considers: i) general knowledge and personal experience of geo-hydrological phenomena; ii) awareness of risk exposure; iii) information and preparedness to geo-hydrological risks of the territory; iv) levels of safety. The results reveal that population consider the anthropic actions as a relevant cause of geo-hydrological phenomena. Moreover, the citizens of the study area, although showing a high civic sense, did not positively assess the actions of the local authorities, both in terms of territory management and people's education and/or information.
Nell’analisi delle serie storiche di grandezze climatiche si riscontrano spesso problemi di disom... more Nell’analisi delle serie storiche di grandezze climatiche si riscontrano spesso problemi di disomogeneità e di assenza di dati, che possono determinare errori dello stesso ordine di grandezza, o talora addirittura maggiori, dei segnali a lungo termine che l’analisi si propone di evidenziare. Scopo del presente lavoro è stato la creazione di un database omogeneo e completo, ovvero il più possibile privo di segnali di tipo non-climatico e senza dati mancanti nella serie storica, che sia funzionale ad un’attendibile analisi climatica. Per le elaborazioni sono stati utilizzati i dati di precipitazione della rete di misura del Centro Funzionale Multirischi della Calabria. La metodologia utilizzata per l’omogeneizzazione delle serie storiche, necessaria per rimuovere i segnali non climatici, si basa sull’applicazione del test di Craddock per l’individuazione delle disomogeneità e su metodologie statistiche per la loro rimozione. Il test di Craddock per la valutazione dell’omogeneità è sta...
Water
In the future, as a result of global warming, it is possible that rainfall could become more inte... more In the future, as a result of global warming, it is possible that rainfall could become more intense and frequent. This could lead to more frequent triggering of damaging phenomena such as floods and landslides (named as a whole damaging hydrogeological events, DHE), and, consequently, to the increase of their impacts on territories, especially in regions where uncontrolled urban sprawl represents a factor that can exacerbate the problem. The analysis of a large quantity of information about both triggering rainfall and triggered phenomena can help to comprehend relationships between triggering precipitation and its related impacts. In this paper, to facilitate the investigation of the relationships between large and complex datasets concerning both rainfall and rainfall-related damage, we propose an index-based approach, illustrated by its application to the Calabria region (Southern Italy). In particular, this manuscript presents some results from a preliminary investigation aimed...
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Jan 17, 2012
This paper presents a methodological approach to both identifying and characterising Widespread L... more This paper presents a methodological approach to both identifying and characterising Widespread Landslide Events (WLE), defined as the occurrence of several landslides through wide areas (thousands of square kilometres). This approach is based on a comparative analysis of two historical databases: a rainfall database and a landslide database, both concerning the same period. This methodology was tested on Calabria (Southern Italy) by analysing a period of more than 80 yr. The data allowed the individuation of 25 WLEs generated by the following: (a) a single rainfall event (RE), (b) a few distinct but temporarily close REs, or (c) several consecutive REs occurring over a period of up to two months. An empirical curve, obtained by interpolating the number of landslides occurred during the WLEs and the average values of cumulative rainfall that triggered them enables the individuation of the relationship between rainfall and number of landslides. The proposed methodological approach can be used wherever historical series of both rainfall and landslides are available. The results can be useful for monitoring the development of events and for the planning of emergency management.
Environmental Earth Sciences, Jan 25, 2016
The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly ... more The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly precipitation contribution. Its temporal and spatial analysis is particularly interesting for many fields of applied sciences, such as climatology, hydrology and water resources management. With the aim to describe the climate regime, its spatial feature and relevant potential temporal shift, for a large area of southern Italy (Mediterranean basin), a database of about 559 stations has been explored through the statistical analysis of rainfall time series spanning between 1917 and 2006. After a change point analysis, aimed at the assessment of data quality, a trend analysis has been performed on both monthly precipitation, monthly percentage of annual rainfall amount and PCI-computed series. The broad extension of the area under investigation highlights a better understanding of precipitation distribution patterns over space. Results of PCI trend analysis show a significant shift, for about 40-50 % of total gauging station, over the time towards a more uniform climate regime, especially for the hilly areas. Moreover, the trend analysis on the monthly rainfall series indicates that the shift is produced by a reduction of rainfall amount during the winter season, particular consistent over the Tyrrhenian side of the peninsula, and an increase during the summer season quite widespread over the whole investigated territory.
Water Resources Management, Oct 19, 2014
ABSTRACT A deficit in precipitation has different impacts on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow,... more ABSTRACT A deficit in precipitation has different impacts on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir storage. In this study, drought, expressed using the SPI, has been analysed in a region of southern Italy (Calabria) using a homogenised and gap-filled database for 129 monthly rainfall series in the 1916-2006 period. Both the short-term (3 and 6 months) and the long-term (12 and 24 months) SPI were estimated and, in order to identify the worst events, the percentages of the regional area falling within severe or extreme dry conditions have been evaluated. With the aim to spatially characterize the most severe drought event, the SPI data were estimated at ungauged locations and mapped using a geostatistical approach. Finally, a time series analysis of long-term SPI was performed to detect possible trends. Results showed that several heavy drought episodes have widely affected the Calabria region and, among these events, the worst one occurred between December 2001 and April 2002. The trend analysis showed a reduction in the SPI values that is a tendency towards drier conditions, although the running trend approach, carried out only for the long-term SPI, revealed that this tendency is not persistent throughout the series length, but it depends on the period examined.
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Papers by Roberto Coscarelli