Center for Spatial Data Science

Objective:To examine food and beverage purchasing patterns across formal and informal outlets among Mexican households’ and explore differences by urbanicity and income.Design:Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of households. We calculated the proportion of total food and beverage expenditure in each household by food outlet type overall and by urbanicity and income. We defined informal outlets as those which are not registered or regulated by tax and fiscal laws. Since some of the outlets within community food environments do not fall in clear categories, we defined a continuum from formal to informal outlets, adding mixed outlets as a category.Setting:Mexico.Participants:Mexican households (n 74 203) from the 2018 National Income and Expenditure Survey.Results:Of the total food and beverage purchases, outlets within the formal food sector (i.e. supermarkets and convenience stores) accounted for 15 % of the purchases, 13 % of purchases occurred in outlets w...

Background: The retail food environment in Mexico is characterized by the coexistence of both, formal and informal food outlets. Yet, the contribution of these outlets to food purchases over time has not been documented. Understanding the longitudinal trends where Mexican households purchase their foods is critical for the development of future food retail policies. Methods: We used data from Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey from 1994 to 2020. We categorized food outlets as formal (supermarkets, chain convenience stores, restaurants), informal (street markets, street vendors, acquaintances), and mixed (fiscally regulated or not. i.e., small neighborhood stores, specialty stores, public markets). We calculated the proportion of food and beverage purchases by food outlet for each survey for the overall sample and stratified by education level and urbanicity. Results: In 1994, the highest proportion of food purchases was from mixed outlets, represented by specialty and small neighborhood stores (53.7%), and public markets (15.9%), followed by informal outlets (street vendors and street markets) with 12.3%, and formal outlets from which supermarkets accounted for 9.6%. Over time, specialty and small neighborhood stores increased 4.7 percentage points (p.p.), while public markets decreased 7.5 p.p. Street vendors and street markets decreased 1.6 p.p., and increased 0.5 p.p. for supermarkets. Convenience stores contributed 0.5% at baseline and increased to 1.3% by 2020. Purchases at specialty stores mostly increased in higher socioeconomic levels (13.2 p.p.) and metropolitan cities (8.7 p.p.) while public markets decreased the most in rural households and lower socioeconomic levels (6.0 p.p. & 5.3 p.p.). Supermarkets and chain convenience stores increased the most in rural localities and small cities. Conclusion: In conclusion, we observed an increase in food purchases from the formal sector, nonetheless, the mixed sector remains the predominant food source in Mexico, especially small-neighborhood stores. This is concerning, since these outlets are mostly supplied by food industries. Further, the decrease in purchases from public markets could imply a reduction in the consumption of fresh produce. In order to develop retail food environment policies in Mexico, the

Este trabajo plantea una situación hipotética en la que el gobierno nacional argentino busque implementar una reforma educativa centrada en la introducción de vouchers. Se analizan, a partir de evidencia empírica acerca de los comportamientos previsibles de los distintos actores involucrados en el proceso de toma e implementación de decisiones, los cursos de acción que el gobierno puede tomar en relación al alcance geográfico de la reforma, al tipo de aprobación buscado, a la estrategia de implementación ex-post y a la presentación del tema frente a la opinión pública. De acuerdo a los resultados esperados para cada curso de acción, se recomienda la toma de decisiones relacionadas a la adopción de una estrategia “gradualista”.

Though free, pluralistic societies develop continuously without a shared hierarchy of particular ends, this does not take into account what such a system exists for in the first place. Its goals, this paper argues, must be analyzed in order to answer the question of whether 'tolerance' becomes a crime when applied to evil. Such an analysis, in turn, can be made more complex by applying the question to individuals or governments. It can be concluded that, while no individual could ever be charged with a crime of the sort, governments certainly can be, according to their own rules, if their citizens' freedoms become impaired by policy-making based on 'tolerance'.

Este estudio diseña el primer modelo predictivo del voto en Argentina no basado en encuestas de intención de voto y aplicable antes de una elec-ción presidencial. A partir de Lichtman y Keilis Borok (1981) se plantean siete indicadores sobre la situación económica, social y política del país para observar la correlación que tiene su variación con la existencia o no de una nueva victoria en las elecciones presidenciales de su ganador pre-vio. La existencia de una relación estadística fuerte y significativa entre las variables, así como el establecimiento de un umbral pasado en el cual la variable dependiente adquiere un valor positivo y que está sustentado por mecanismos causales en línea con los acontecimientos de la historia re-ciente, provee importante evidencia empírica a favor del modelo. Hasta hoy, nunca perdió el último ganador de la elección si sus competidores no obtuvieron al menos cuatro «llaves», definidas a partir del empeoramiento de la situación del país.

En base al primer modelo predictivo del voto en Argentina no basado en encuestas de intención de voto y aplicable antes de un comicio presidencial, se concluye que el gobierno de la coalición Cambiemos perderá las elecciones en 2019. El patrón existente desde 1989, según el cual ningún ganador de la elección previa pudo volver a ganar si al menos cuatro de los siete indicadores sobre la situación económica, social y política del país no le fueron favorables, permite arribar a dicha conclusión, dado que precisamente ese número de indicadores ya son negativos y por lo tanto le costarían al presidente Macri su reelección. El modelo había sido planteado a partir de Lichtman y Keilis Borok (1981): la existencia de una relación estadística fuerte y significativa entre las variables independientes y dependiente provee importante evidencia empírica a favor suyo.