MCU Timeline for the Origin of The Winter Soldier
I've seen a lot of posts going around about the Winter Soldier, and there is so much conflicting information about when he was created, who created him, who he worked for, etc. that I decided to build a timeline of events to work out answers to these questions. Everything has been fact checked as much as humanly possible with sources from Captain America: The First Avenger (CATFA) and Captain America: The Winter Soldier (CATWS), along with some RL sources regarding the timeline for WWII. Hopefully some of you will find this useful.
Needless to say, this post contains massive spoilers for CATWS.
First, I'm going to talk about my theories about the creation of the Winter Soldier in the MCU, and debunk some of the stuff I've seen going around, like the persistent theory that Arnim Zola created the Winter Soldier. The actual timeline is at the end of this post.
Please keep in mind that a lot of this is conjecture, but I've backed that up with facts as much as possible. The timeline itself only contains information that can be backed up by canon.
After the Fall: Bucky Becomes the Winter Soldier and Zola joins S.H.I.E.L.D.
In the last third of CATFA, Bucky falls from the train and is presumed dead. Zola is taken into SSR custody and questioned by Colonel Phillips. He reveals Schmidt's plan of total destruction, which is to go into effect in two days. Steve et. al. confront Schmidt and stop his dastardly schemes, and then Steve crashes Schmidt's plane into the ice. I could talk for thousands of words about Steve's mindset after losing his best friend and only family, and how heartbreaking it is that he barely lasts a week after Bucky's death before going to his own, but that's another post entirely. This one is about the Winter Soldier.
In the comics, the Russians find Bucky's body. His dead body. They manage to revive his corpse (by attempting to revive him as though he had just died, cause that would totally work), albeit with no memory of who he used to be. Then, they use their technology to make him into the perfect operative, giving him fluency in languages, weapons training, any other skill sets or information that he will need to complete his next mission.
The MCU is telling a different story, though. Based on the Soldier's flashbacks (which I will dissect below), you could make the argument that whatever Zola did to him after the 107th was captured at Azzano kept him alive after his fall, albeit probably barely alive (or mostly dead, if you prefer). He was found by someone, experimented on, and turned into their perfect operative. You can make a strong case for him being found by the Russians (we'll get to that).
He strongly associates Zola with his transformation into the Winter Soldier (or at least with the experimentation done on him by his new masters), so at the very least, we can say he was definitely experimented on after Azzano. Whether it was something that resulted in him surviving the fall, or just the same type of torture he endured at the hands of the people who made him into the Soldier, we don't know for sure.
I don't believe that the "Sergeant Barnes...the procedure has already started" voiceover in the flashback was from the period immediately after he was found by whoever-it-was that found him. Zola was simply not available to do any experiments on anyone for at least six months after Bucky's death.
[As a side note, despite the date of death in the Smithsonian exhibit, I have to fanwank it as being in 1945, since Steve dies in '45, and there is no way that the events between Bucky's fall and Steve's plane crash are longer than a week's worth of time. Either it's 1945, or that was the worst Christmas/New Years ever].
To quote the wikipedia article on Operation Paperclip:
The Winter Soldier's Flashback and Creation
First, a breakdown of the scenes in the flashback:
The interesting thing about Zola in this flashback is that whenever we see him, he looks nice and genial, and is wearing what he was wearing during several scenes in the middle of CATFA (labcoat, glasses, bowtie). We hear the voiceover, but his mouth never moves, other than when he says, "Sergeant Barnes". This is deliberate, and I believe the filmmakers are saying that we should relate Zola-during-CATFA with the torture the Winter Soldier is experiencing at the hands of his new masters, but not that Zola was the one pulling the strings of the Winter Soldier's creation.
I think the Soldier's subconscious mind recognized the voice that told him (when he was brought out of cryo by HYDRA for the first time) that he would be the new fist of HYDRA. After seeing Steve and having things jogged, his brain made the connection between that moment and the person who had tortured him back in 1943 when he was Bucky Barnes. All of the constant writing and rewriting, and all of the cryo, clearly messed with his mind, and things are all jumbled up in there and out of order, but the relationship is clearly there.
I have a hard time believing that Bucky's body was either a) found six months or more after he fell, which would be the earliest I can imagine Zola would be available to oversee experiments, or b) found immediately and then just shoved in cold storage for a while until Zola could work his magic. We see Bucky's body being dragged through the snow, blood trailing from the stump of his arm. That implies a relatively fresh wound, which eliminates option A, but B doesn't seem much more likely. Why stick a body in cold storage and leave it there in case you might have a use for it later? Logic dictates that whatever was done to Bucky was done right after he was retrieved.
So, he's found and revived, the remaining portion of his arm is cut off, and they do what? Let him heal for a while? Press him into service for the cause immediately? Does he know who he is at all? Is he just a blank slate that doesn't remember being a person, like he is in the comics? Does he know he's Bucky Barnes? Is he aware of where he is, aware that he fell because Steve couldn't save him in time? Is he waiting for Steve to come rescue him like he did the last time he was captured by HYDRA? Or is he an empty vessel, ready to be filled up with whatever his masters choose to give him?
Basically, I need Cap 3 right now, so we can maybe possibly get those answers, but since I don't have a time machine, I'm going to take a leap and say that if he remembers anything at that point, it's patchy due to trauma, and because whatever Zola used on him wasn't as good as the formula Erskine perfected on Steve. I don't think he remembers anything, though.
The Russians vs. HYDRA
So, this takes care of what happened to Bucky and Zola during and post-CATFA, but how do they meet up again? How do we get to the Winter Soldier becoming "the new fist of HYDRA"? This portion of the timeline is super in flux, and contains a lot of conjecture that will probably get jossed in one way or another, but with the evidence we have from CATWS, and from comics canon, I believe that the Russians used the Winter Soldier as their operative during the Cold War (same as in the comics), and that HYDRA took possession of him during the confusion over the fall of the Soviet Union.
The person that finds him is wearing a big fur hat, a great stereotypical visual shorthand for "Russian". I believe that the Russians found him, gave him a metal arm with a their symbol branded on it (so that everyone knew whose property the Winter Soldier was), experimented on him, and turned him into an assassin. Whether you believe that whatever Zola did to him after the 107th was captured at Azzano allowed him to survive the fall, or whether you go by comics canon that says he was dead, but basically being flash-frozen after the explosion allowed the Russians to bring him back to life (with no memories of being Bucky) is irrelevant to the actual timeline of events.
I don't believe that the Russians who found Bucky were part of HYDRA. HYDRA membership seems to mainly be concentrated to Germans at the time of Bucky's fall (yeah, Zola is Swiss, but work with me here), and the Germans and Russians were not allies in 1945.
HYDRA (and Zola) probably didn't come into the picture until they were able to rise to power inside S.H.I.E.L.D., and Zola wasn't in a position to take control of the Winter Soldier without S.H.I.E.L.D. becoming suspicious of his activities.
Also, why would HYDRA even want the Winter Soldier right after his creation if he hadn't been tested and proven to be a successful operative? Captain America was dead at the time, so using their control over his best friend's mind and body as a weapon against him wasn't an option. Bucky on his own is not a powerful bargaining chip, but a tried and tested operative, one with a legacy as infamous as the Winter Soldier's is.
The Winter Soldier is thought to have been responsible for two dozen assassinations over "the last 50 years" according to Natasha. That suggests it took a while for his legacy to build, but that once HYDRA had secure footing and began to influence events to best serve their cause, the Soldier was probably known in intelligence circles.
Zola received a terminal diagnosis, and his mind was transferred to computer in 1972. I'm going to take a leap and say that HYDRA brought in the Winter Soldier after Zola was uploaded. Zola's algorithm appears to have been created after Zola's physical body died, and with that algorithm, HYDRA knew what pieces they'd have to remove or put in play in order to shape the future to suit their needs. It would make sense that once the algorithm was developed, it led HYDRA to the conclusion that they would benefit greatly from having control of the Winter Soldier.
It's doubtful that the Russians would want to give him up that easily, so it's hard to say when HYDRA would have taken possession of him, but I'm thinking it was during the confusion and upheaval of the fall of the Soviet Union. This occurred in December of 1991.
Howard and Maria Stark were killed on December 17, 1991, nine days before the fall of the Soviet Union. This is confirmed to have been an attack perpetrated by the Winter Soldier. HYDRA is the organization most likely to benefit from and desire the Starks' deaths, so it is likely that HYDRA ordered this attack.
So, HYDRA was in control of the Winter Soldier in December of 1991, but we don't have any conclusive evidence of when exactly they took over his ownership. I really hope Cap 3 answers these questions, but in the meantime, it's open to interpretation.
Timeline of Events
Here is the actual timeline of events that can be corroborated by either CATFS or CATWS. Things that are supposition on my part are marked with **.
Early 1945 (or late December 1944, if you're a masochist):
Two days later:
May 8, 1945: VE Day
Early 1945: Arnim Zola spends the next several months after Schmidt's defeat (length of time depends on when you think the final confrontation in CATFA is set) as a prisoner of war.
Unknown 1945: S.H.I.E.L.D. is formed by Peggy Carter, Howard Stark, and Colonel Phillips.
**August 1945: Under Operation Paperclip, Zola is recruited to S.H.I.E.L.D., where he begins to plant the seeds of HYDRA within their ranks. August date based on official RL execution of Operation Paperclip.
**Unknown 1945 [potentially as early as the period when Steve is still alive, potentially as late as mid-1945]:
The Winter Soldier's legend continues to grow throughout the remainder of the 20th century.
**????: HYDRA takes possession of the Winter Soldier. Possibly this happens during the confused period of the fall of the Soviet Union (see this timeline for some of the historical facts.)
December 17, 1991: Howard and Maria Stark are killed in a car accident. This is confirmed to have been an attack perpetrated by the Winter Soldier. HYDRA is the organization most likely to benefit from and desire the Starks' deaths, so it is likely that HYDRA ordered this attack.
December 26, 1991: The Soviet Union is formally dissolved. [source]
????-2014: The Winter Soldier acts as an operative for HYDRA.
Unknown 2009: Natasha faces off with the Winter Soldier outside of Odessa. He shoots his target (a nuclear engineer) through Natasha, but lets her live. [Cap 2 says “five years ago”, so presumably 2009 based on the film taking place in 2014.]
In summary:
I would welcome any contributions anyone might have to add to this timeline, especially to the period of time when the Winter Soldier was operating pre-December 1991. If anyone has any sources for anything, please do let me know!
This post is also on tumblr.
Needless to say, this post contains massive spoilers for CATWS.
First, I'm going to talk about my theories about the creation of the Winter Soldier in the MCU, and debunk some of the stuff I've seen going around, like the persistent theory that Arnim Zola created the Winter Soldier. The actual timeline is at the end of this post.
Please keep in mind that a lot of this is conjecture, but I've backed that up with facts as much as possible. The timeline itself only contains information that can be backed up by canon.
After the Fall: Bucky Becomes the Winter Soldier and Zola joins S.H.I.E.L.D.
In the last third of CATFA, Bucky falls from the train and is presumed dead. Zola is taken into SSR custody and questioned by Colonel Phillips. He reveals Schmidt's plan of total destruction, which is to go into effect in two days. Steve et. al. confront Schmidt and stop his dastardly schemes, and then Steve crashes Schmidt's plane into the ice. I could talk for thousands of words about Steve's mindset after losing his best friend and only family, and how heartbreaking it is that he barely lasts a week after Bucky's death before going to his own, but that's another post entirely. This one is about the Winter Soldier.
In the comics, the Russians find Bucky's body. His dead body. They manage to revive his corpse (by attempting to revive him as though he had just died, cause that would totally work), albeit with no memory of who he used to be. Then, they use their technology to make him into the perfect operative, giving him fluency in languages, weapons training, any other skill sets or information that he will need to complete his next mission.
The MCU is telling a different story, though. Based on the Soldier's flashbacks (which I will dissect below), you could make the argument that whatever Zola did to him after the 107th was captured at Azzano kept him alive after his fall, albeit probably barely alive (or mostly dead, if you prefer). He was found by someone, experimented on, and turned into their perfect operative. You can make a strong case for him being found by the Russians (we'll get to that).
He strongly associates Zola with his transformation into the Winter Soldier (or at least with the experimentation done on him by his new masters), so at the very least, we can say he was definitely experimented on after Azzano. Whether it was something that resulted in him surviving the fall, or just the same type of torture he endured at the hands of the people who made him into the Soldier, we don't know for sure.
I don't believe that the "Sergeant Barnes...the procedure has already started" voiceover in the flashback was from the period immediately after he was found by whoever-it-was that found him. Zola was simply not available to do any experiments on anyone for at least six months after Bucky's death.
[As a side note, despite the date of death in the Smithsonian exhibit, I have to fanwank it as being in 1945, since Steve dies in '45, and there is no way that the events between Bucky's fall and Steve's plane crash are longer than a week's worth of time. Either it's 1945, or that was the worst Christmas/New Years ever].
To quote the wikipedia article on Operation Paperclip:
Operation Paperclip was the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) program used to recruit the scientists of Nazi Germany for employment by the United States in the aftermath of World War II. It was conducted by the Joint Intelligence Objectives Agency (JIOA), and in the context of the burgeoning Cold War. One purpose of Operation Paperclip was to deny German scientific expertise and knowledge to the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom, as well as inhibiting post-war Germany from redeveloping its military research capabilities.Presumably, the Operation Paperclip in the MCU had a similar timeline. Until we hear otherwise, I'm going to take the leap and say it's the same timeline. So, Zola was captured by the SSR at some point in early 1945, and recruited to the newly-formed S.H.I.E.L.D. sometime between May and September of 1945, being kept as a POW until then. We don't know anything about what his activities were during his time with S.H.I.E.L.D., other than that he began planting the seeds of HYDRA right away. It is unlikely that they allowed him to go off on his own to do anything, let alone meet with shady people in other countries who were in possession of technology that would lead to the Winter Soldier's creation.
Although the JIOA's recruitment of German scientists began after the Allied victory in Europe on May 8, 1945, U.S. President Harry Truman did not formally order the execution of Operation Paperclip until August 1945.
The Winter Soldier's Flashback and Creation
First, a breakdown of the scenes in the flashback:
- We see Zola's face, hear him saying "Sergeant Barnes".
- Cut to shots of the train going through a tunnel, Steve yelling "Bucky no!" and Bucky falling.
- Zola VO: "the procedure has already started" over a guy in giant Russian fur hat finding the body, dragging it through the snow, blood trailing from the stump of Bucky's arm.
- Cut to a medical facility, where his stump is removed and replaced with the metal arm.
- Zola VO: "You are to be the new fist of HYDRA". As he says this, the soldier flexes and tests both hands, grabs a scientist around the throat with the metal one, and chokes him out.
- Zola's face again. His mouth doesn't move, but we hear his voice say, "put him on ice."
- Bucky is frozen in the cryo chamber. His hair is long, as it is during the events of CATWS.
The interesting thing about Zola in this flashback is that whenever we see him, he looks nice and genial, and is wearing what he was wearing during several scenes in the middle of CATFA (labcoat, glasses, bowtie). We hear the voiceover, but his mouth never moves, other than when he says, "Sergeant Barnes". This is deliberate, and I believe the filmmakers are saying that we should relate Zola-during-CATFA with the torture the Winter Soldier is experiencing at the hands of his new masters, but not that Zola was the one pulling the strings of the Winter Soldier's creation.
I think the Soldier's subconscious mind recognized the voice that told him (when he was brought out of cryo by HYDRA for the first time) that he would be the new fist of HYDRA. After seeing Steve and having things jogged, his brain made the connection between that moment and the person who had tortured him back in 1943 when he was Bucky Barnes. All of the constant writing and rewriting, and all of the cryo, clearly messed with his mind, and things are all jumbled up in there and out of order, but the relationship is clearly there.
I have a hard time believing that Bucky's body was either a) found six months or more after he fell, which would be the earliest I can imagine Zola would be available to oversee experiments, or b) found immediately and then just shoved in cold storage for a while until Zola could work his magic. We see Bucky's body being dragged through the snow, blood trailing from the stump of his arm. That implies a relatively fresh wound, which eliminates option A, but B doesn't seem much more likely. Why stick a body in cold storage and leave it there in case you might have a use for it later? Logic dictates that whatever was done to Bucky was done right after he was retrieved.
So, he's found and revived, the remaining portion of his arm is cut off, and they do what? Let him heal for a while? Press him into service for the cause immediately? Does he know who he is at all? Is he just a blank slate that doesn't remember being a person, like he is in the comics? Does he know he's Bucky Barnes? Is he aware of where he is, aware that he fell because Steve couldn't save him in time? Is he waiting for Steve to come rescue him like he did the last time he was captured by HYDRA? Or is he an empty vessel, ready to be filled up with whatever his masters choose to give him?
Basically, I need Cap 3 right now, so we can maybe possibly get those answers, but since I don't have a time machine, I'm going to take a leap and say that if he remembers anything at that point, it's patchy due to trauma, and because whatever Zola used on him wasn't as good as the formula Erskine perfected on Steve. I don't think he remembers anything, though.
The Russians vs. HYDRA
So, this takes care of what happened to Bucky and Zola during and post-CATFA, but how do they meet up again? How do we get to the Winter Soldier becoming "the new fist of HYDRA"? This portion of the timeline is super in flux, and contains a lot of conjecture that will probably get jossed in one way or another, but with the evidence we have from CATWS, and from comics canon, I believe that the Russians used the Winter Soldier as their operative during the Cold War (same as in the comics), and that HYDRA took possession of him during the confusion over the fall of the Soviet Union.
The person that finds him is wearing a big fur hat, a great stereotypical visual shorthand for "Russian". I believe that the Russians found him, gave him a metal arm with a their symbol branded on it (so that everyone knew whose property the Winter Soldier was), experimented on him, and turned him into an assassin. Whether you believe that whatever Zola did to him after the 107th was captured at Azzano allowed him to survive the fall, or whether you go by comics canon that says he was dead, but basically being flash-frozen after the explosion allowed the Russians to bring him back to life (with no memories of being Bucky) is irrelevant to the actual timeline of events.
I don't believe that the Russians who found Bucky were part of HYDRA. HYDRA membership seems to mainly be concentrated to Germans at the time of Bucky's fall (yeah, Zola is Swiss, but work with me here), and the Germans and Russians were not allies in 1945.
HYDRA (and Zola) probably didn't come into the picture until they were able to rise to power inside S.H.I.E.L.D., and Zola wasn't in a position to take control of the Winter Soldier without S.H.I.E.L.D. becoming suspicious of his activities.
Also, why would HYDRA even want the Winter Soldier right after his creation if he hadn't been tested and proven to be a successful operative? Captain America was dead at the time, so using their control over his best friend's mind and body as a weapon against him wasn't an option. Bucky on his own is not a powerful bargaining chip, but a tried and tested operative, one with a legacy as infamous as the Winter Soldier's is.
The Winter Soldier is thought to have been responsible for two dozen assassinations over "the last 50 years" according to Natasha. That suggests it took a while for his legacy to build, but that once HYDRA had secure footing and began to influence events to best serve their cause, the Soldier was probably known in intelligence circles.
Zola received a terminal diagnosis, and his mind was transferred to computer in 1972. I'm going to take a leap and say that HYDRA brought in the Winter Soldier after Zola was uploaded. Zola's algorithm appears to have been created after Zola's physical body died, and with that algorithm, HYDRA knew what pieces they'd have to remove or put in play in order to shape the future to suit their needs. It would make sense that once the algorithm was developed, it led HYDRA to the conclusion that they would benefit greatly from having control of the Winter Soldier.
It's doubtful that the Russians would want to give him up that easily, so it's hard to say when HYDRA would have taken possession of him, but I'm thinking it was during the confusion and upheaval of the fall of the Soviet Union. This occurred in December of 1991.
Howard and Maria Stark were killed on December 17, 1991, nine days before the fall of the Soviet Union. This is confirmed to have been an attack perpetrated by the Winter Soldier. HYDRA is the organization most likely to benefit from and desire the Starks' deaths, so it is likely that HYDRA ordered this attack.
So, HYDRA was in control of the Winter Soldier in December of 1991, but we don't have any conclusive evidence of when exactly they took over his ownership. I really hope Cap 3 answers these questions, but in the meantime, it's open to interpretation.
Timeline of Events
Here is the actual timeline of events that can be corroborated by either CATFS or CATWS. Things that are supposition on my part are marked with **.
Early 1945 (or late December 1944, if you're a masochist):
- The Howling Commandos launch their attack on Arnim Zola's train as it speeds through the Alps. They capture Zola, but Sergeant James Barnes is thrown from the train into the ravine below. Bucky is presumed dead.
- Devastated by the loss of his best friend, Steve Rogers tries to get drunk in a bombed out bar, tells Peggy Carter that he's going to stop Schmidt, and won't rest until all of HYDRA is captured or dead.
- Colonel Phillips questions Zola about the Red Skull's plans.
- Members of the SSR, Captain America, and the remaining Howling Commandos have a meeting to discuss the intel Phillips gathered from Zola, and the plan to stop Schmidt. Colonel Phillips specifically mentions that the plan is scheduled to go down in two days.
Two days later:
- Captain America, the Howling Commandos, and the SSR storm the HYDRA base to stop Schmidt. Steve pursues Schmidt onto his plane as it is taking off, and he discovers it is carrying missiles bound for several major US cities. He confronts Schmidt and they fight. During this fight, Steve damages the container holding the Tesseract, and when Schmidt picks it up, its power destroys him. Steve is left alone on the plane.
- The plane is on an unalterable course to destroy New York, so Steve radios SSR command and tells Peggy that he has to put the plane in the water. He does, and spends the next 60+ years in the ice.
- According to dates shown in both CATFA and CATWS, this occurs in 1945.
May 8, 1945: VE Day
Early 1945: Arnim Zola spends the next several months after Schmidt's defeat (length of time depends on when you think the final confrontation in CATFA is set) as a prisoner of war.
Unknown 1945: S.H.I.E.L.D. is formed by Peggy Carter, Howard Stark, and Colonel Phillips.
**August 1945: Under Operation Paperclip, Zola is recruited to S.H.I.E.L.D., where he begins to plant the seeds of HYDRA within their ranks. August date based on official RL execution of Operation Paperclip.
**Unknown 1945 [potentially as early as the period when Steve is still alive, potentially as late as mid-1945]:
- Someone finds Bucky Barnes's body in the snow, missing part of his arm.
- His body is dragged through the snow to a facility somewhere, where the rest of his stump is cut off and replaced with a metal arm.
- Barnes is brainwashed into becoming the Winter Soldier, Russia's perfect assassin and spy.
The Winter Soldier's legend continues to grow throughout the remainder of the 20th century.
**????: HYDRA takes possession of the Winter Soldier. Possibly this happens during the confused period of the fall of the Soviet Union (see this timeline for some of the historical facts.)
December 17, 1991: Howard and Maria Stark are killed in a car accident. This is confirmed to have been an attack perpetrated by the Winter Soldier. HYDRA is the organization most likely to benefit from and desire the Starks' deaths, so it is likely that HYDRA ordered this attack.
December 26, 1991: The Soviet Union is formally dissolved. [source]
????-2014: The Winter Soldier acts as an operative for HYDRA.
Unknown 2009: Natasha faces off with the Winter Soldier outside of Odessa. He shoots his target (a nuclear engineer) through Natasha, but lets her live. [Cap 2 says “five years ago”, so presumably 2009 based on the film taking place in 2014.]
In summary:
- Arnim Zola didn't create the Winter Soldier. He just didn't.
- Regarding Bucky's survival or lack thereof after the fall: whether you believe that Zola's experiments on him caused him to survive the fall, or that (like in the comics) he didn't survive and was reanimated by the Russians, the timeline of events doesn't change. The only thing that really changes is what was done to his body. Admittedly, I go back and forth on this, but you can make a case for either with the available evidence.
- HYDRA wasn't the Winter Soldier's only master. He worked for the Russians (see also the red star on his shoulder, him speaking Russian during the attack on the bridge, the dude in the big furry Russian hat finding him after he falls) and was transferred to HYDRA at some point in the late 20th Century.
- There is no way in hell that the Winter Soldier was active at any point before Steve crashes the plane. Bucky's body might still have been undiscovered at that point.
I would welcome any contributions anyone might have to add to this timeline, especially to the period of time when the Winter Soldier was operating pre-December 1991. If anyone has any sources for anything, please do let me know!
This post is also on tumblr.