The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a... more The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.
Water from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems is an extensive problem causing costs to... more Water from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems is an extensive problem causing costs to society in various ways. Comprehensive methods for supporting decisions on how to efficiently mitigate the problems in a sustainable manner are, however, missing today. This paper presents a novel risk-based model to assess the cost to society from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems by monetising effects related to treatment of wastewater, pumping, combined sewer overflows, and basement flooding. The present value is calculated for a specified time horizon and discount rate, using a cost-benefit analysis approach. To acknowledge the various uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is applied where probability distributions represent the input variables. The model is shown to be applicable by illustrating its use in a case study area in Gothenburg, Sweden. Main results from the case study show that most of the costs are related to investments at the wastewater treatment plant and restoration due to basement flooding events. Sensitivity analyses show that the result is highly dependent on factors such as the volume of infiltration and inflow water, the share of basement flooding, and the discount rate. Using expert elicitation to quantify input data is also illustrated and shown to be a valuable method. The presented model fills an important research knowledge gap and will facilitate a more sustainable and comprehensive handling of water from infiltration and inflow.
The Island of Gotland (3000 km2), east of mainland Sweden, suffers from insufficient water availa... more The Island of Gotland (3000 km2), east of mainland Sweden, suffers from insufficient water availability each summer. Thin soils and lack of coherent reservoirs in the sedimentary bedrock lead to limited reservoir capacity. The feasibility of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is explored by identifying suitable areas and estimating their possible contribution to an increased water availability. MAR is compared to alternative water management measures, e.g., increased groundwater abstraction, in terms of costs and water availability potential. Results from GIS analyses of infiltration areas and groundwater storage, respectively proximity to surface water sources and surface water storage were classified into three categories of MAR suitability. An area of ca 7700 ha (2.5% of Gotland) was found to have good local conditions for MAR and an area of ca 22,700 ha (7.5% of Gotland) was found to have moderate local conditions for MAR. These results reveal the MAR potential on Gotland. The water...
Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is essential for people’s everyday life and f... more Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is essential for people’s everyday life and for most businesses and economic sectors. However, water scarcity and drought are emerging as some of the most important global risks to society with both short-term and long-term effects on people, ecosystem services, biodiversity and the economic activities that depend on a reliable water supply. This is a global problem, and Sweden is not spared. The low precipitation and high summer temperatures that hit Sweden for three consecutive years between 2016 and 2018, caused a vastly reduced access to water and led to major consequences for the Swedish society. In most Swedish regions, however, there is usually more than enough water to meet the growing needs of society and at the same time maintain a good environmental status even during drought. But to ensure a long-term sustainable water supply, all parties, i.e. households, water-dependent businesses and authorities, need to take measure...
Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds o... more Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made.
Reliable and safe drinking water supply requires adequate risk management. Decision support model... more Reliable and safe drinking water supply requires adequate risk management. Decision support models can aid decisionmakers to effectively evaluate risk mitigation measures and allocate societal resources. Here, a Swedish case study illustrates how the installation of ultrafiltration membranes can be evaluated by combining risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to assess several contamination sources and estimate the achieved risk reduction from waterborne pathogens using Campylobacter, Norovirus, and Cryptosporidium as reference pathogens. The societal value of the improved water quality was estimated in the cost-benefit analysis by monetising the gained quality adjusted life years and aesthetic water quality improvements. The calculated net present value (mean of 7 MEUR) indicated that the installation of the ultrafiltration membranes was a sound investment from a societal economic perspective. The ultrafiltration membranes reduced...
Water protection is a widely supported goal in society, but competing interests often complicate ... more Water protection is a widely supported goal in society, but competing interests often complicate the implementation of water protection measures. Moreover, the benefits of protection efforts are typically underestimated as risk assessments focus on the provision of drinking water and neglect the additional services provided by a clean drinking water source. We developed a list of water system services (WSS) that allows assessment of all biotic and abiotic services provided by a drinking water source. The WSS were derived from the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES). The objectives of this paper are to (i) introduce the concept of WSS, (ii) describe a procedure on how to develop a region-specific list of WSS and present a list of WSS specifically tailored to Sweden, (iii) present how to integrate WSS into a risk assessment for drinking water, and (iv) illustrate a practical application on a Swedish case study. The results, presented as an assessment matr...
description of hazards for water supply systems A catalogue of today’s hazards and possible futur... more description of hazards for water supply systems A catalogue of today’s hazards and possible future hazards Version August 2008TECHNEAU,
Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and frameworkTECHNEAU Deci... more Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and frameworkTECHNEAU Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and framework
As water serves as a necessary and often irreplaceable input in a range of goods and services, a ... more As water serves as a necessary and often irreplaceable input in a range of goods and services, a disruption in water supply can cause lost production and sales for businesses. Thus, large benefits may be generated by reducing the risk of water disruptions. To enable selection of economically viable risk mitigation measures, the investment costs should be weighed against the benefits of risk mitigation. Consequently, quantitative estimates of the consequences of disruptions need to be available. However, despite the importance of water to businesses, the literature on their financial losses due to short and long-term water disruptions is still scarce. The aim of this paper is to estimate time-dependent water supply resiliency factors for economic sectors, i.e., a metric focusing on the level of output that businesses can uphold during a disruption, to contribute to better decision support for water supply planning and risk management. An online survey was used to gather data from 140...
Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overc... more Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR-and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR-and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.
Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe... more Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of Water Safety Plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.
Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorou... more Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.
In the 3rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organization (W... more In the 3rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organization (WHO) concludes that an integrated management of risks in source waters, treatment systems and distribution networks is the most effective way to guarantee safe drinking water to consumers. The integrated approach is fundamental to avoid sub-optimisation of risk reduction efforts. This paper presents an application of an integrated and quantitative risk model for comparing risk-reduction alternatives to support decisions for reaching specified water safety targets. A fault tree approach is used for structuring the risk analysis and for estimating the risk, expressed as Costumer Minutes Lost. Input information is a combination of hard data and expert judgements. Uncertainties in input information are considerable and modelled by a Bayesian statistical approach. The Göteborg drinking water system is used to exemplify model application. Quantitative safety targets have been confirmed at the p...
ABSTRACT: It is recognized that the usual output of a fault tree analysis in some studies is not ... more ABSTRACT: It is recognized that the usual output of a fault tree analysis in some studies is not sufficiently informative. For added value in a widely used instrument for doing risk analyses, a Markovian approach is suggested. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the standard fault tree gates, so that information is available not only on the failure probability at the top level, but also on estimates of its rate of failure and mean down time. In applying this to an integrated fault tree analysis of a municipal drinking water system, we further identified the need for gates that are variations of those currently in use. 1
During 2015 the Swedish Maritime Administration continued the second phase of the governmental ta... more During 2015 the Swedish Maritime Administration continued the second phase of the governmental task Environmental risks from sunken wrecks which first report was finalized 2014-10-31 (Dnr: 1399-14-01942-6). The main conclusions from the 2014 report remain; for future handling of potentially polluting shipwrecks it is recommended that the Swedish Agency for Water and Marine Management is given a coordinating responsibility in close cooperation with other competent national authorities, such as Swedish Maritime Administration, Swedish Coastguard, Swedish National Maritime Museums, the Geological Survey of Sweden, SMHI, Swedish EPA, and Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Through coordination of wreck related operations and activities within the concerned competent authorities’ ordinary areas of responsibility, resource efficiency is improved. The estimated extra cost for implementation of a national strategy for handling of the wrecks are estimated to be 10-15 MSEK which should be all...
The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a... more The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.
Water from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems is an extensive problem causing costs to... more Water from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems is an extensive problem causing costs to society in various ways. Comprehensive methods for supporting decisions on how to efficiently mitigate the problems in a sustainable manner are, however, missing today. This paper presents a novel risk-based model to assess the cost to society from infiltration and inflow to wastewater systems by monetising effects related to treatment of wastewater, pumping, combined sewer overflows, and basement flooding. The present value is calculated for a specified time horizon and discount rate, using a cost-benefit analysis approach. To acknowledge the various uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is applied where probability distributions represent the input variables. The model is shown to be applicable by illustrating its use in a case study area in Gothenburg, Sweden. Main results from the case study show that most of the costs are related to investments at the wastewater treatment plant and restoration due to basement flooding events. Sensitivity analyses show that the result is highly dependent on factors such as the volume of infiltration and inflow water, the share of basement flooding, and the discount rate. Using expert elicitation to quantify input data is also illustrated and shown to be a valuable method. The presented model fills an important research knowledge gap and will facilitate a more sustainable and comprehensive handling of water from infiltration and inflow.
The Island of Gotland (3000 km2), east of mainland Sweden, suffers from insufficient water availa... more The Island of Gotland (3000 km2), east of mainland Sweden, suffers from insufficient water availability each summer. Thin soils and lack of coherent reservoirs in the sedimentary bedrock lead to limited reservoir capacity. The feasibility of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is explored by identifying suitable areas and estimating their possible contribution to an increased water availability. MAR is compared to alternative water management measures, e.g., increased groundwater abstraction, in terms of costs and water availability potential. Results from GIS analyses of infiltration areas and groundwater storage, respectively proximity to surface water sources and surface water storage were classified into three categories of MAR suitability. An area of ca 7700 ha (2.5% of Gotland) was found to have good local conditions for MAR and an area of ca 22,700 ha (7.5% of Gotland) was found to have moderate local conditions for MAR. These results reveal the MAR potential on Gotland. The water...
Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is essential for people’s everyday life and f... more Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is essential for people’s everyday life and for most businesses and economic sectors. However, water scarcity and drought are emerging as some of the most important global risks to society with both short-term and long-term effects on people, ecosystem services, biodiversity and the economic activities that depend on a reliable water supply. This is a global problem, and Sweden is not spared. The low precipitation and high summer temperatures that hit Sweden for three consecutive years between 2016 and 2018, caused a vastly reduced access to water and led to major consequences for the Swedish society. In most Swedish regions, however, there is usually more than enough water to meet the growing needs of society and at the same time maintain a good environmental status even during drought. But to ensure a long-term sustainable water supply, all parties, i.e. households, water-dependent businesses and authorities, need to take measure...
Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds o... more Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made.
Reliable and safe drinking water supply requires adequate risk management. Decision support model... more Reliable and safe drinking water supply requires adequate risk management. Decision support models can aid decisionmakers to effectively evaluate risk mitigation measures and allocate societal resources. Here, a Swedish case study illustrates how the installation of ultrafiltration membranes can be evaluated by combining risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to assess several contamination sources and estimate the achieved risk reduction from waterborne pathogens using Campylobacter, Norovirus, and Cryptosporidium as reference pathogens. The societal value of the improved water quality was estimated in the cost-benefit analysis by monetising the gained quality adjusted life years and aesthetic water quality improvements. The calculated net present value (mean of 7 MEUR) indicated that the installation of the ultrafiltration membranes was a sound investment from a societal economic perspective. The ultrafiltration membranes reduced...
Water protection is a widely supported goal in society, but competing interests often complicate ... more Water protection is a widely supported goal in society, but competing interests often complicate the implementation of water protection measures. Moreover, the benefits of protection efforts are typically underestimated as risk assessments focus on the provision of drinking water and neglect the additional services provided by a clean drinking water source. We developed a list of water system services (WSS) that allows assessment of all biotic and abiotic services provided by a drinking water source. The WSS were derived from the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES). The objectives of this paper are to (i) introduce the concept of WSS, (ii) describe a procedure on how to develop a region-specific list of WSS and present a list of WSS specifically tailored to Sweden, (iii) present how to integrate WSS into a risk assessment for drinking water, and (iv) illustrate a practical application on a Swedish case study. The results, presented as an assessment matr...
description of hazards for water supply systems A catalogue of today’s hazards and possible futur... more description of hazards for water supply systems A catalogue of today’s hazards and possible future hazards Version August 2008TECHNEAU,
Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and frameworkTECHNEAU Deci... more Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and frameworkTECHNEAU Decision support for risk management in drinking water supply Overview and framework
As water serves as a necessary and often irreplaceable input in a range of goods and services, a ... more As water serves as a necessary and often irreplaceable input in a range of goods and services, a disruption in water supply can cause lost production and sales for businesses. Thus, large benefits may be generated by reducing the risk of water disruptions. To enable selection of economically viable risk mitigation measures, the investment costs should be weighed against the benefits of risk mitigation. Consequently, quantitative estimates of the consequences of disruptions need to be available. However, despite the importance of water to businesses, the literature on their financial losses due to short and long-term water disruptions is still scarce. The aim of this paper is to estimate time-dependent water supply resiliency factors for economic sectors, i.e., a metric focusing on the level of output that businesses can uphold during a disruption, to contribute to better decision support for water supply planning and risk management. An online survey was used to gather data from 140...
Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overc... more Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR-and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR-and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.
Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe... more Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of Water Safety Plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.
Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorou... more Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.
In the 3rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organization (W... more In the 3rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organization (WHO) concludes that an integrated management of risks in source waters, treatment systems and distribution networks is the most effective way to guarantee safe drinking water to consumers. The integrated approach is fundamental to avoid sub-optimisation of risk reduction efforts. This paper presents an application of an integrated and quantitative risk model for comparing risk-reduction alternatives to support decisions for reaching specified water safety targets. A fault tree approach is used for structuring the risk analysis and for estimating the risk, expressed as Costumer Minutes Lost. Input information is a combination of hard data and expert judgements. Uncertainties in input information are considerable and modelled by a Bayesian statistical approach. The Göteborg drinking water system is used to exemplify model application. Quantitative safety targets have been confirmed at the p...
ABSTRACT: It is recognized that the usual output of a fault tree analysis in some studies is not ... more ABSTRACT: It is recognized that the usual output of a fault tree analysis in some studies is not sufficiently informative. For added value in a widely used instrument for doing risk analyses, a Markovian approach is suggested. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the standard fault tree gates, so that information is available not only on the failure probability at the top level, but also on estimates of its rate of failure and mean down time. In applying this to an integrated fault tree analysis of a municipal drinking water system, we further identified the need for gates that are variations of those currently in use. 1
During 2015 the Swedish Maritime Administration continued the second phase of the governmental ta... more During 2015 the Swedish Maritime Administration continued the second phase of the governmental task Environmental risks from sunken wrecks which first report was finalized 2014-10-31 (Dnr: 1399-14-01942-6). The main conclusions from the 2014 report remain; for future handling of potentially polluting shipwrecks it is recommended that the Swedish Agency for Water and Marine Management is given a coordinating responsibility in close cooperation with other competent national authorities, such as Swedish Maritime Administration, Swedish Coastguard, Swedish National Maritime Museums, the Geological Survey of Sweden, SMHI, Swedish EPA, and Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Through coordination of wreck related operations and activities within the concerned competent authorities’ ordinary areas of responsibility, resource efficiency is improved. The estimated extra cost for implementation of a national strategy for handling of the wrecks are estimated to be 10-15 MSEK which should be all...
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Papers by Andreas Lindhe