Papers by Shalva Dzebisashvili
UGSPN Paper , 2024
As Georgia increasingly struggles to comply with its European commitments and, simultaneously, Ru... more As Georgia increasingly struggles to comply with its European commitments and, simultaneously, Russia intensifies its information campaign (disinformation and propaganda) within Georgia, the question of whether Georgia’s political system and institutions are resilient enough to counter this threat becomes more relevant than ever before. Therefore, this research project applies a new assessment model (R/VAT) of national resilience to analyze the resilience capacity (vulnerability) of
the political system (domain) and its major actors against the threat of proliferation of malign Russian narratives, thereby generating the annual political resilience index (PRI), which can also be applied in other national contexts.
Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG eBooks, 2024
UGSPN Papers , 2024
Since the Bucharest summit declaration that promised the NATO-membership to Ukraine and Georgia, ... more Since the Bucharest summit declaration that promised the NATO-membership to Ukraine and Georgia, the option of the membership action plan (MAP)-formally the only mechanism for joining the alliance-became increasingly controversial, politicized and questionable, putting the credibility of the Alliance and its promises under the big question mark. The article doubles down on the debatable value of the MAP from the perspective of military deterrence and argues that the current version of the membership action plan does nothing whatsoever to increase the deterrent of a membership candidate, and in contrary, may lead to a much higher probability of military threat, i.e. aggression. Hence, the MAP appears to acquire a purely formal nature, with no practical applicability and military value to secure the membership process itself. Realizing this but not admitting it openly, the alliance is therefore trapped in its hesitance to decide on membership, thus effectively "donating" the veto right to a revisionist country that actively opposes the enlargement policy. The rapid inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO without formally activating the MAP-procedure, is reviewed as the vivid demonstration and testimony of the accuracy of arguments provided in the article.
GIP Policy Paper #43, 2024
The problem for the EU as an independent geopolitical player has long been discussed in academic ... more The problem for the EU as an independent geopolitical player has long been discussed in academic and policy related literature. The enlargement process itself inherently deepened the quest for a more visible European footprint globally, and especially in its immediate neighborhood. At the same time the South Caucasus, a region long regarded as a buffer-zone
between Russia, Europe and other “big players”, has been increasingly articulating its interest for a more European footprint. By opening negotiations on membership with Ukraine and granting Georgia candidacy status, as well as hailing Armenia’s interest in a European perspective, Brussels, in fact, has made a clear geopolitical claim and questioned the existing format of cooperation such as the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Hence, this article examines the dilemmas facing the forming of a more clear-cut and articulated EU-strategy in the South Caucasus region, and suggests several policy changes that would bring far more clarity to the
strategic objectives of the EU and better security in achieving these objectives, i.e. securing its .footprint in the region
Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG eBooks, 2021
Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2015
This article represents a part of a larger study that examines the relevance of the Western (NATO... more This article represents a part of a larger study that examines the relevance of the Western (NATO) standards to the process of Armenian defense transformation. In particular, it pays close attention to the democratic values of the Alliance and the degree of their practical application by the partner country within the respective cooperation agenda. The interplay of strategic mutual interests as the motivating force for NATO's conditionality and Armenia's compliance is reviewed closely, as are the relevance of the language of communication and the varying interpretations of cooperation mechanisms. The article is an attempt to evaluate the status of democratic progress and, in particular, to assess the degree of democratic control over the armed forces in Armenia. The search for motives and reasons for democratic deficit or failure remains outside of the scope of this analysis. * Shalva Dzebisashvili received an EU Commission doctoral fellowship (GEM) in September 2012 and currently is a PhD researcher at the Institute for European Studies (IEE-ULB) and the University of Bielefeld (Germany). He is member of the Civil Council on Defense and Security (CCDS), a nongovernmental organization founded in Georgia. Shalva Dzebisashvili is a former MOD Official. He graduated from the Catholic University of Eichstaett (Germany) in the field of International Relations and Law in 2003 and entered the government service as a senior specialist of defense policy in the planning department. In 2008-2009 he successfully completed a Master of Arts in Strategic Security Studies at NDU (Washington, D.C.) and subsequently took over the position of Senior Civilian Representative of Geo-MOD (Defense Advisor) to the Georgian Mission to NATO.
Respectus philologicus, Oct 19, 2020
Since the 2008 Russia-Georgia War NATO-Georgia relations have been in limbo. While NATO has never... more Since the 2008 Russia-Georgia War NATO-Georgia relations have been in limbo. While NATO has never formally closed its doors on Georgia, the alliance has become more skeptical of enlargement and warier of Russian interests. While Georgia’s practical NATO integration has continued to deepen, it still remains below the threshold of membership. This policy paper maps the main interests, mismatches, perceptions and misperceptions in the relations between NATO and Georgia. It is argued that while Georgia’s territorial disputes are often seen as the proximate impediments to NATO membership, the real reasons are Western European skepticism towards Georgia and an accommodating approach towards Russia. The paper also explores the potential alternatives to NATO membership for Georgia. While Georgia and enlargement-sceptic members of NATO will not be able to solve their differences anytime soon, alternatives to NATO membership seem even more distant or less desirable. Evidence from the post-Soviet area demonstrates that non-alignment and neutrality are suboptimal options whereas a bilateral military partnership with the U.S. would be the most desirable, but less attainable option in the short term.
Central Asia After Three Decades of Independence, 2021
Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2020
This article reexamines the infamous concept of the “Energy Empire,” formulated by Anatoli Tchuba... more This article reexamines the infamous concept of the “Energy Empire,” formulated by Anatoli Tchubais, and makes an attempt to reveal the instruments and ways of Russian economic influence in Georgia that lead to the formation of the so-called Russian economic footprint in the country, which in turn is effectively instrumentalized by Kremlin as a powerful tool for malign political influence and pressure. The problem is very much related to the ability of young and fragile democracies to develop resilient political systems and institutions, to withhold the pressure, and uphold the irreversible process of democratic transformation. The analysis of the major sectors of the national economy in Georgia reveals the critical dependence of major sectors on Russian operated companies as well as the growing aggregated weight of Russia’s influence in the entire national economy. The preliminary results drawn from the sectoral analysis are augmented by a regression model applied to verify the int...
Respectus Philologicus, 2020
Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2015
This article represents a part of a larger study that examines the relevance of the Western (NATO... more This article represents a part of a larger study that examines the relevance of the Western (NATO) standards to the process of Armenian defense transformation. In particular, it pays close attention to the democratic values of the Alliance and the degree of their practical application by the partner country within the respective cooperation agenda. The interplay of strategic mutual interests as the motivating force for NATO's conditionality and Armenia's compliance is reviewed closely, as are the relevance of the language of communication and the varying interpretations of cooperation mechanisms. The article is an attempt to evaluate the status of democratic progress and, in particular, to assess the degree of democratic control over the armed forces in Armenia. The search for motives and reasons for democratic deficit or failure remains outside of the scope of this analysis. * Shalva Dzebisashvili received an EU Commission doctoral fellowship (GEM) in September 2012 and currently is a PhD researcher at the Institute for European Studies (IEE-ULB) and the University of Bielefeld (Germany). He is member of the Civil Council on Defense and Security (CCDS), a nongovernmental organization founded in Georgia. Shalva Dzebisashvili is a former MOD Official. He graduated from the Catholic University of Eichstaett (Germany) in the field of International Relations and Law in 2003 and entered the government service as a senior specialist of defense policy in the planning department. In 2008-2009 he successfully completed a Master of Arts in Strategic Security Studies at NDU (Washington, D.C.) and subsequently took over the position of Senior Civilian Representative of Geo-MOD (Defense Advisor) to the Georgian Mission to NATO.
Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2014
The thesis deals with the problematics of institutional influence of an international organizatio... more The thesis deals with the problematics of institutional influence of an international organization (NATO), which is placed in the context of transformational processes of defence institutions of Armenia and Georgia reviewed as case-countries. The notion of defence institutions refers largely to ministries of defence and the national armed forces as key units of analysis that are exposed to multiple mechanisms and mods of external institutional influence, that of the Alliance. The objective of the study is to shed light on the dynamics of institutional cooperation between NATO and the case – countries and to highlight the underlying causes responsible for varying results of national compliance in a defined set of functional areas of defence common for Armenia and Georgia. The key question is whether NATO was able to utilize its policy of conditionality to enforce policy change of respective defence institutions. And the generated hypotheses largely suggest that the degree of domestic...
GIP Policy Paper #40, 2024
The policy paper analyzes the relevance of energy security in the Georgian energy sector and its ... more The policy paper analyzes the relevance of energy security in the Georgian energy sector and its proper reflection in energy planning and the security of the country in general. The first section of the paper discusses the conceptual development of energy security, definitional changes, and its relevance in the current political context of the country. Energy policy is examined from the perspective of long-term planning and national security strategy. Consequently, this policy paper reviews all important national and agency-level documents, as well as energy security challenges in times of crises and war. Several international cases are analyzed that provide important examples of proper energy policy and energy security planning and implementation. The paper concludes with specific recommendations to ensure strategic planning and implementation in the energy sector.
Polarization, Shifting Borders and Liquid Governance: Studies on Transformation and Development in the OSCE Region, 2024
The article deals with the problematique of informal governance and diffusion of “bad governance”... more The article deals with the problematique of informal governance and diffusion of “bad governance” practices in the context of regime transition and change of political elites. As the general assumption is that the democratization process aims at solidifying democratic gains and stabilizing institutional performance in terms of transparency and accountability (good governance), the reality, however, often renders the opposite results, in which the new ruling political elite is content with the existing lack of democratic practices, continues to take advantage of informal rule and reform-masking, and, in fact, does little to prevent the full monopolization of power (state capture). On the example of power transition in Georgia, where in 2012 the National Movement party led by the President Saakashvili was defeated in parliamentary elections and had to hand over the power to the opposition conglomerate named Georgian Dream, we take closer look at the failed attempt to establish a tradition of democratic transition that instead of cementing the mechanisms of good governance resulted in societal polarization, politization of institutions and strong instances of state capture.
GIP Policy Paper, 2020
Since the 2008 Russia-Georgia War NATO-Georgia relations have been in limbo. While NATO has never... more Since the 2008 Russia-Georgia War NATO-Georgia relations have been in limbo. While NATO has never formally closed its doors on Georgia, the alliance has become more skeptical of enlargement and warier of Russian interests. While Georgia’s practical NATO integration has continued to deepen, it still remains below the threshold of membership. This policy paper maps the main interests, mismatches, perceptions and misperceptions in the relations between NATO and Georgia. It is argued that while Georgia’s territorial disputes are often seen as the proximate impediments to NATO membership, the real reasons are Western European skepticism towards Georgia and an accommodating approach towards Russia. The paper also explores the potential alternatives to NATO membership for Georgia. While Georgia and enlargement-sceptic members of NATO will not be able to solve their differences anytime soon, alternatives to NATO membership seem even more distant or less desirable. Evidence from the post-Soviet area demonstrates that non-alignment and neutrality are suboptimal options whereas a bilateral military partnership with the U.S. would be the most
desirable, but less attainable option in the short term.
Georgia's Implementation of 20 Eastern Partnership Deliverables for 2020 ASSESSMENT BY CIVIL SOCIETY REPORT, 2020
Fourteen Georgian civil society organizations contributed to writing the first independent
report... more Fourteen Georgian civil society organizations contributed to writing the first independent
report of progress on the 20 Deliverables for 2020 for Georgia, combining Georgian civil
society and think-tank expertise. It covers all five EaP priority areas: cross-cutting deliverables, stronger economy, stronger governance, stronger connectivity and stronger
society. The overview on each deliverable outlines the progress, results achieved and challenges encountered in implementing 20 Deliverables for 2020.
The report also provides recommendations for maximizing benefits from this framework,
and advocate for necessary reforms with stakeholders in Georgia and the EU. This publication is intended to create a foundation for discussion and serve as a resource for government officials, civil society representatives, diplomatic community, field experts, citizens
and other stakeholders who are engaged in Georgia’s democratic development.
Uploads
Papers by Shalva Dzebisashvili
the political system (domain) and its major actors against the threat of proliferation of malign Russian narratives, thereby generating the annual political resilience index (PRI), which can also be applied in other national contexts.
between Russia, Europe and other “big players”, has been increasingly articulating its interest for a more European footprint. By opening negotiations on membership with Ukraine and granting Georgia candidacy status, as well as hailing Armenia’s interest in a European perspective, Brussels, in fact, has made a clear geopolitical claim and questioned the existing format of cooperation such as the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Hence, this article examines the dilemmas facing the forming of a more clear-cut and articulated EU-strategy in the South Caucasus region, and suggests several policy changes that would bring far more clarity to the
strategic objectives of the EU and better security in achieving these objectives, i.e. securing its .footprint in the region
desirable, but less attainable option in the short term.
report of progress on the 20 Deliverables for 2020 for Georgia, combining Georgian civil
society and think-tank expertise. It covers all five EaP priority areas: cross-cutting deliverables, stronger economy, stronger governance, stronger connectivity and stronger
society. The overview on each deliverable outlines the progress, results achieved and challenges encountered in implementing 20 Deliverables for 2020.
The report also provides recommendations for maximizing benefits from this framework,
and advocate for necessary reforms with stakeholders in Georgia and the EU. This publication is intended to create a foundation for discussion and serve as a resource for government officials, civil society representatives, diplomatic community, field experts, citizens
and other stakeholders who are engaged in Georgia’s democratic development.
the political system (domain) and its major actors against the threat of proliferation of malign Russian narratives, thereby generating the annual political resilience index (PRI), which can also be applied in other national contexts.
between Russia, Europe and other “big players”, has been increasingly articulating its interest for a more European footprint. By opening negotiations on membership with Ukraine and granting Georgia candidacy status, as well as hailing Armenia’s interest in a European perspective, Brussels, in fact, has made a clear geopolitical claim and questioned the existing format of cooperation such as the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Hence, this article examines the dilemmas facing the forming of a more clear-cut and articulated EU-strategy in the South Caucasus region, and suggests several policy changes that would bring far more clarity to the
strategic objectives of the EU and better security in achieving these objectives, i.e. securing its .footprint in the region
desirable, but less attainable option in the short term.
report of progress on the 20 Deliverables for 2020 for Georgia, combining Georgian civil
society and think-tank expertise. It covers all five EaP priority areas: cross-cutting deliverables, stronger economy, stronger governance, stronger connectivity and stronger
society. The overview on each deliverable outlines the progress, results achieved and challenges encountered in implementing 20 Deliverables for 2020.
The report also provides recommendations for maximizing benefits from this framework,
and advocate for necessary reforms with stakeholders in Georgia and the EU. This publication is intended to create a foundation for discussion and serve as a resource for government officials, civil society representatives, diplomatic community, field experts, citizens
and other stakeholders who are engaged in Georgia’s democratic development.
security and defense area was carried out, based on which the security challenges and institutional failures facing the country have been considered and two competing models of rational defense formulated and recommended. The first (1) model is fully tailored to the needs of the security and defense system without any presumption of the resources (especially financial) limitation; and the second (2) model is a relatively realistic one based on the financial capabilities and constraints of the country. Structurally, the document is divided into three sections. The first section is entirely dedicated to the review of the desired models of the Defense Forces. The review begins with the formulation of the threats and challenges facing the country, and global processes relevant to the context of regional security. The next phase lays out the vision of the future of warfare and on its basis, the requirements for operational and combat capabilities are formulated. Following this, the document eventually reviews in detail the desired structure of the Defense Forces (including an alternative variant), its capabilities and equipment, staffing, logistics and infrastructure, including budgetary calculations for the period set for the transformation of forces. The second section of the document reviews the institutional arrangement of defense and security - functional efficiency of the Parliament, Minister of Defense, General Staff, NSC, Defense Council and President, which is essential for security and defense policy, its planning and democratic oversight. The third section reviews interagency cooperation in the area of security and defense, which is critical for effective response to military and other types of crises. This primarily implies coordinated action of the Georgian Defense Forces with other agencies to ensure the protection of critical infrastructure, response to natural disasters, protection of border and maximum security along the occupation line (ABL). Based on the purpose of the document, recommendations are formulated in all three sections and cover a wide range of measures (agency and structure, legal, finances and resources, doctrine, etc.). In case of their fulfillment, it is possible to achieve the stated objectives: 1. Substantial institutional enhancement of the security and defense sphere/system of Georgia; 2. Rapid development of the Defense Forces and enhancement of combat capabilities, adequate for the combat objectives; 3. Significant increase of efficiency in interagency coordination and joint response to various types of crises.