Tom Wilkinson

I'm working on complex macrosocioeconomic network models. The hope is that macroeconomic volatility and divergence can be found as emergent properties of a system of agents, who form contracts under competing modes of enforcement.

This is a response to logical flaws in the orthodox DSGE macroeconomic models, that basically arise from simultaneously employing the Lucas critique (Realist reductionism) and Friedman's As-If methodology (Instrumentalism).

It also answers fairly intuitive concerns about the orthogonality of macrosocial and macroeconomic phenomena; because the foundational enforcement mechanisms are universal, unlike centralised, single-price, markets - which account for relatively little economic, let alone human, interaction.

The hopes for application are those typical of a reductionist (micro-founded) model: prediction ceteris-paribus is expected to be at least matched by a holistic model (probably a VARFIMA); however, changes to the critical exponents of that holistic model, under policy change, should (ideally) be predictable through this model.
Supervisors: Prof Huw Dixon and Prof Patrick Minford
Phone: +447929167810
Address: Tom Wilkinson
Cardiff Business School
Cardiff University
Colum Drive CF10 3EU