El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribución del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma f... more El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribución del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma fiscal de 2010 en México, empleando para ello modelos de microsimulación del isr y del iva, y los resultados se comparan con el estado que guardaban los hogares bajo el esquema fiscal 2008. Se observa que el esquema tributario aprobado para 2010, considerando tanto la estructura de impuestos directos como los indirectos, tiene una relativa tendencia a la progresividad, la cual supera al esquema vigente en 2008. Sin embargo, resulta evidente que la progresividad se basa fundamentalmente en la estructura de los impuestos directos (isr), ya que los impuestos indirectos (iva e ieps) resultaron particularmente regresivos.
This microsimulation model of the tax-benefit system in Mexico is the companion to the following ... more This microsimulation model of the tax-benefit system in Mexico is the companion to the following paper (which has to be cited when using the model): Carlos Absalon and Carlos M. Urzua (2012), “Distributive effects of the 2010 tax reform in Mexico: a microsimulation analysis”, in Carlos M. Urzua (ed.), Fiscal Inclusive Development: Microsimulation Models for Latin America, Mexico City: ITESM-IDRC-UNDP, pp. 101-120. The program is free software and it is written using Excel. It can be modified under the terms of the GNU General Public License. The program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful to modelers, but without any warranty whatsoever.
After the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily unti... more After the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily until it ended up affecting more than one third of the population in 1996. Since then, the government has increased substantially social benefits, directing most of its efforts toward reducing poverty (the percentage of population living in poverty, although still high, is now lower than in the pre-crisis years). Regarding the tax system, in 2007 the Congress enacted several changes in the case of income taxes and some excise taxes. Thus, on both sides, benefits and taxes, there have been several recent reforms in Mexico that are worth to study in a micro-simulation framework.
El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribucion del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma f... more El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribucion del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma fiscal de 2010 en Mexico, empleando para ello modelos de microsimulacion del isr y del iva, y los resultados se comparan con el estado que guardaban los hogares bajo el esquema fiscal 2008. Se observa que el esquema tributario aprobado para 2010, considerando tanto la estructura de impuestos directos como los indirectos, tiene una relativa tendencia a la progresividad, la cual supera al esquema vigente en 2008. Sin embargo, resulta evidente que la progresividad se basa fundamentalmente en la estructura de los impuestos directos (isr), ya que los impuestos indirectos (iva e ieps) resultaron particularmente regresivos.
This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This m... more This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This methodology, introduced initially in the fifties, has recently being used intensively specially in Europe thanks to the development of faster computers and better microdata surveys. The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of microsimulation models and describes the way in which they can be used to evaluate the impact of public policies on social welfare and the economy. The paper also describes an ongoing project that attempts to promote the generalized use of microsimulation models in Latin America.
This paper starts with a description of the main features of the current Mexican tax system and o... more This paper starts with a description of the main features of the current Mexican tax system and of a (minor) tax reform that took place in 2010, when the government tried to correct for a drastic fall in its revenues because of the economic collapse in 2009. It then describes in a detailed way a microsimulation model, which is made of three modules: for direct taxes, for indirect taxes, and for welfare indexes. Subsequently, it exemplifies the use of the model by examining the welfare and revenue impacts of the 2010 reform.
Resumen es: Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de microsimulacion como instrumentos para e... more Resumen es: Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de microsimulacion como instrumentos para el analisis de politicas publicas. Esta metodologia, planteada inicia...
ABOUT IDRC Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) supports research in develop... more ABOUT IDRC Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) supports research in developing countries to promote growth and development. IDRC also encourages sharing this knowledge with policymakers, other researchers, and communities around the world. The result is innovative, lasting local solutions that aim to bring choice and change to those who need it most. ABOUT UNDP The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the UN's global development network, an organization advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience, and resources to help people build a better life. We are on the ground in 166 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges. As they develop local capacity, they draw on the people of UNDP and our wide range of partners. ABOUT ITESM The Tecnológico de Monterrey, one of the entities of the Tecnológico de Monterrey System (ITESM), is a higher education institution that educates students to become responsible citizens who trigger the development of their communities. We promote in our students humanistic values, an international perspective, and an entrepreneurial culture. We are present throughout Mexico with our 31 campuses and in several other countries through our sites and liaison offices.
This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This m... more This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This methodology, introduced initially in the fifties, has recently being used intensively specially in Europe thanks to the development of faster computers and better microdata surveys. The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of microsimulation models and describes the way in which they can be used
A fter the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily unt... more A fter the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily until it ended up affecting more than one third of the population in 1996. Since then, the government has increased substantially social benefits, directing most of its efforts toward reducing poverty (the percentage of population living in poverty, although still high, is now lower than in the pre-crisis years). Regarding the tax system, in 2007 the Congress enacted several changes in the case of income taxes and some excise taxes. Thus, on both sides, benefits and taxes, there have been several recent reforms in Mexico that are worth to study in a micro-simulation framework. Also, micro-simulation can be of help in the search of better tax regimes. 1.1 Basic figures According to the classical World Bank classification, Mexico is an uppermiddle income country. It has one of the highest incomes per capita in Latin America, and its Gross Domestic Product (gdp) is, in the region, second only to Brazil's (which is about 12% higher in dollar terms). Nevertheless, its income per capita, measured in purchasing power parity terms, is one of the lowest among the average real incomes of the other [135]
Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis ... more Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis de políticas públicas. Esta metodología, planteada inicialmente en la década de los cincuenta, ha tenido especialmente en Europa un uso intensivo en los últimos años gracias al desarrollo informático y a avances en el levantamiento de encuestas confiables. El artículo discute los fundamentos teóricos de los modelos de micro-simulación y describe la manera en que éstos permiten evaluar el impacto de políticas públicas sobre el bienestar social y la economía. El trabajo describe además un proyecto vigente que pretende impulsar el empleo generalizado de modelos de micro-simulación en América Latina.
Abstract Traducción de: Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Tr. de la 3a ed. en inglés. C... more Abstract Traducción de: Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Tr. de la 3a ed. en inglés. Contenido: Introducción; Regresión lineal simple; Regresión lineal múltiple; Comprobación e la adecuación del modelo; Transformaciones y ponderación para ...
I. Introducción El propósito central de este trabajo será examinar la reacción del Banco de Méxic... more I. Introducción El propósito central de este trabajo será examinar la reacción del Banco de México ante los desequilibrios externos que ha en-frentado la economía mexicana durante el periodo de 1988 a 2000, utilizando para ello, una versión modificada del modelo desarrollado ...
Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis ... more Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis de políticas públicas. Esta metodología, planteada inicialmente en la década de los cincuenta, ha tenido especialmente en Europa un uso intensivo en los últimos años gracias al desarrollo informático y a avances en el levantamiento de encuestas confiables. El artículo discute los fundamentos teóricos de los modelos de micro-simulación y describe la manera en que éstos permiten evaluar el impacto de políticas públicas sobre el bienestar social y la economía. El trabajo describe además un proyecto vigente que pretende impulsar el empleo generalizado de modelos de micro-simulación en América Latina.
Traducción de: The Nature of Economic Growth: An Alternative Framework for Understanding the Perf... more Traducción de: The Nature of Economic Growth: An Alternative Framework for Understanding the Performance of Nations. La contribución de Anthony P. Thirlwall a la ciencia económica radica, en esencia, en una teoría que explica los principios y leyes fundamentales que ...
El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribución del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma f... more El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribución del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma fiscal de 2010 en México, empleando para ello modelos de microsimulación del isr y del iva, y los resultados se comparan con el estado que guardaban los hogares bajo el esquema fiscal 2008. Se observa que el esquema tributario aprobado para 2010, considerando tanto la estructura de impuestos directos como los indirectos, tiene una relativa tendencia a la progresividad, la cual supera al esquema vigente en 2008. Sin embargo, resulta evidente que la progresividad se basa fundamentalmente en la estructura de los impuestos directos (isr), ya que los impuestos indirectos (iva e ieps) resultaron particularmente regresivos.
This microsimulation model of the tax-benefit system in Mexico is the companion to the following ... more This microsimulation model of the tax-benefit system in Mexico is the companion to the following paper (which has to be cited when using the model): Carlos Absalon and Carlos M. Urzua (2012), “Distributive effects of the 2010 tax reform in Mexico: a microsimulation analysis”, in Carlos M. Urzua (ed.), Fiscal Inclusive Development: Microsimulation Models for Latin America, Mexico City: ITESM-IDRC-UNDP, pp. 101-120. The program is free software and it is written using Excel. It can be modified under the terms of the GNU General Public License. The program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful to modelers, but without any warranty whatsoever.
After the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily unti... more After the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily until it ended up affecting more than one third of the population in 1996. Since then, the government has increased substantially social benefits, directing most of its efforts toward reducing poverty (the percentage of population living in poverty, although still high, is now lower than in the pre-crisis years). Regarding the tax system, in 2007 the Congress enacted several changes in the case of income taxes and some excise taxes. Thus, on both sides, benefits and taxes, there have been several recent reforms in Mexico that are worth to study in a micro-simulation framework.
El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribucion del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma f... more El trabajo analiza los impactos en la distribucion del ingreso y la progresividad de la reforma fiscal de 2010 en Mexico, empleando para ello modelos de microsimulacion del isr y del iva, y los resultados se comparan con el estado que guardaban los hogares bajo el esquema fiscal 2008. Se observa que el esquema tributario aprobado para 2010, considerando tanto la estructura de impuestos directos como los indirectos, tiene una relativa tendencia a la progresividad, la cual supera al esquema vigente en 2008. Sin embargo, resulta evidente que la progresividad se basa fundamentalmente en la estructura de los impuestos directos (isr), ya que los impuestos indirectos (iva e ieps) resultaron particularmente regresivos.
This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This m... more This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This methodology, introduced initially in the fifties, has recently being used intensively specially in Europe thanks to the development of faster computers and better microdata surveys. The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of microsimulation models and describes the way in which they can be used to evaluate the impact of public policies on social welfare and the economy. The paper also describes an ongoing project that attempts to promote the generalized use of microsimulation models in Latin America.
This paper starts with a description of the main features of the current Mexican tax system and o... more This paper starts with a description of the main features of the current Mexican tax system and of a (minor) tax reform that took place in 2010, when the government tried to correct for a drastic fall in its revenues because of the economic collapse in 2009. It then describes in a detailed way a microsimulation model, which is made of three modules: for direct taxes, for indirect taxes, and for welfare indexes. Subsequently, it exemplifies the use of the model by examining the welfare and revenue impacts of the 2010 reform.
Resumen es: Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de microsimulacion como instrumentos para e... more Resumen es: Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de microsimulacion como instrumentos para el analisis de politicas publicas. Esta metodologia, planteada inicia...
ABOUT IDRC Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) supports research in develop... more ABOUT IDRC Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) supports research in developing countries to promote growth and development. IDRC also encourages sharing this knowledge with policymakers, other researchers, and communities around the world. The result is innovative, lasting local solutions that aim to bring choice and change to those who need it most. ABOUT UNDP The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the UN's global development network, an organization advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience, and resources to help people build a better life. We are on the ground in 166 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges. As they develop local capacity, they draw on the people of UNDP and our wide range of partners. ABOUT ITESM The Tecnológico de Monterrey, one of the entities of the Tecnológico de Monterrey System (ITESM), is a higher education institution that educates students to become responsible citizens who trigger the development of their communities. We promote in our students humanistic values, an international perspective, and an entrepreneurial culture. We are present throughout Mexico with our 31 campuses and in several other countries through our sites and liaison offices.
This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This m... more This paper reviews the use of microsimulation models as a tool for public policy analysis. This methodology, introduced initially in the fifties, has recently being used intensively specially in Europe thanks to the development of faster computers and better microdata surveys. The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of microsimulation models and describes the way in which they can be used
A fter the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily unt... more A fter the economic crisis that erupted in 1994, extreme poverty in Mexico increased steadily until it ended up affecting more than one third of the population in 1996. Since then, the government has increased substantially social benefits, directing most of its efforts toward reducing poverty (the percentage of population living in poverty, although still high, is now lower than in the pre-crisis years). Regarding the tax system, in 2007 the Congress enacted several changes in the case of income taxes and some excise taxes. Thus, on both sides, benefits and taxes, there have been several recent reforms in Mexico that are worth to study in a micro-simulation framework. Also, micro-simulation can be of help in the search of better tax regimes. 1.1 Basic figures According to the classical World Bank classification, Mexico is an uppermiddle income country. It has one of the highest incomes per capita in Latin America, and its Gross Domestic Product (gdp) is, in the region, second only to Brazil's (which is about 12% higher in dollar terms). Nevertheless, its income per capita, measured in purchasing power parity terms, is one of the lowest among the average real incomes of the other [135]
Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis ... more Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis de políticas públicas. Esta metodología, planteada inicialmente en la década de los cincuenta, ha tenido especialmente en Europa un uso intensivo en los últimos años gracias al desarrollo informático y a avances en el levantamiento de encuestas confiables. El artículo discute los fundamentos teóricos de los modelos de micro-simulación y describe la manera en que éstos permiten evaluar el impacto de políticas públicas sobre el bienestar social y la economía. El trabajo describe además un proyecto vigente que pretende impulsar el empleo generalizado de modelos de micro-simulación en América Latina.
Abstract Traducción de: Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Tr. de la 3a ed. en inglés. C... more Abstract Traducción de: Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. Tr. de la 3a ed. en inglés. Contenido: Introducción; Regresión lineal simple; Regresión lineal múltiple; Comprobación e la adecuación del modelo; Transformaciones y ponderación para ...
I. Introducción El propósito central de este trabajo será examinar la reacción del Banco de Méxic... more I. Introducción El propósito central de este trabajo será examinar la reacción del Banco de México ante los desequilibrios externos que ha en-frentado la economía mexicana durante el periodo de 1988 a 2000, utilizando para ello, una versión modificada del modelo desarrollado ...
Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis ... more Este trabajo revisa el uso de los modelos de micro-simulación como instrumentos para el análisis de políticas públicas. Esta metodología, planteada inicialmente en la década de los cincuenta, ha tenido especialmente en Europa un uso intensivo en los últimos años gracias al desarrollo informático y a avances en el levantamiento de encuestas confiables. El artículo discute los fundamentos teóricos de los modelos de micro-simulación y describe la manera en que éstos permiten evaluar el impacto de políticas públicas sobre el bienestar social y la economía. El trabajo describe además un proyecto vigente que pretende impulsar el empleo generalizado de modelos de micro-simulación en América Latina.
Traducción de: The Nature of Economic Growth: An Alternative Framework for Understanding the Perf... more Traducción de: The Nature of Economic Growth: An Alternative Framework for Understanding the Performance of Nations. La contribución de Anthony P. Thirlwall a la ciencia económica radica, en esencia, en una teoría que explica los principios y leyes fundamentales que ...
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