South Asia and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia are potential powder kegs of unrest in 2020, a... more South Asia and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia are potential powder kegs of unrest in 2020, amid a perfect storm of food shortages, higher prices, sweeping job losses and plummeting remittances.
The dramatic surge in protests in 2019 has swept up a quarter of countries in its tide and sent u... more The dramatic surge in protests in 2019 has swept up a quarter of countries in its tide and sent unprepared governments across all continents reeling. According to our latest data and forecasts, the turmoil is set to continue unabated in 2020.
Despite President Trump’s claims that North Korea will become an “economic powerhouse,” Kim Jong-... more Despite President Trump’s claims that North Korea will become an “economic powerhouse,” Kim Jong-un’s authoritarian regime has been classified as the world’s most perilous investment destination for business.
We used our portfolio of global risk indices to stress test the US president’s assertions by measuring the investability of 198 countries across the key areas of corporate governance; the regulatory framework; property rights protections; and respect of human rights.
For investors in Asia Pacific’s oil and gas industry, there is a mix of good and bad news if we l... more For investors in Asia Pacific’s oil and gas industry, there is a mix of good and bad news if we look ahead over the next couple of years.
On the upside, the region will remain one the most politically stable in the world, with Indonesia, Australia, China and India – four of the region’s biggest capex hotspots – continuing to offer stable political environments in which to operate.
However, according to our Government Stability Index Projection, downside risks will rise in some key investment destinations. We expect the worst news to come out of Myanmar and Thailand, where upcoming elections will increase the potential for political upheaval and likely stall much needed industry reforms. But, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) could also be in for a bumpy political ride with potential implications for investors.
Here’s our roundup of what to watch for across these four markets.
If it takes place, the announced Trump-Kim summit promises to be one of the biggest diplomatic ev... more If it takes place, the announced Trump-Kim summit promises to be one of the biggest diplomatic events in living memory. The willingness of both sides to engage in dialogue is a positive development, a sentiment reflected in today’s cautious optimism, net of Trump tariff fears, among regional markets. We nevertheless maintain our view that the North will not agree to denuclearise – even if it may take steps to reduce tensions in return for concessions.
A long-term solution to the growing amounts of waste generated by the world’s nuclear power plant... more A long-term solution to the growing amounts of waste generated by the world’s nuclear power plants has proved elusive. As a result, nuclear waste is piling up in potentially dangerous, temporary waste sites. A solution may be on the horizon, however. South Australia’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission is exploring the feasibility of an international used fuel (high-level waste) disposal facility. While this is not the first such facility to have been proposed – others are being planned in Finland and Sweden – it would be the first in the Asia-Pacific and could play a vital role in regional nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation efforts.
South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in has pledged a clean break with the Park Geun-hye era, pro... more South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in has pledged a clean break with the Park Geun-hye era, promising sweeping changes. Moon has vowed to take a different approach not only on the numerous domestic issues thatfeatured prominently during the election campaign, but also in dealing with North Korea.
He has pledged to resume dialogue and revive economic cooperation with the North, and to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. While highly ambitious, Moon’s goal is ultimately unrealistic. The likelihood of Kim Jong-un agreeing to give up his nuclear arsenal – the only guarantee of regime survival – is virtually non-existent, regardless of the economic or other incentives on offer. The best Moon can hope is that the fresh approach can help him to manage tensions better than his predecessor.
Japan has played a key role in multilateral counter-piracy efforts in Southeast Asia since the en... more Japan has played a key role in multilateral counter-piracy efforts in Southeast Asia since the end of the Cold War. The administration of Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo seized the initiative with a series of ambitious proposals for regional cooperation, which resulted in the establishment of ReCAAP, the world’s first international organization with the sole mandate of countering maritime piracy. Another milestone came in 2009, when the government of Aso Taro dispatched the Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) to the Gulf of Aden. However, Japan’s involvement in multilateral counter-piracy efforts became less ambitious under the Abe administration, as the problem of piracy became one of many competing security priorities, subsumed within Japan’s wider geopolitical considerations.
Although overall piracy rates declined in 2016, transnational criminal networks and extremist groups such as Abu Sayyaf have continued to carry out growing numbers of well-organized attacks. This includes a spate of crew abductions in the Sulu and Celebes seas, which has continued into 2017. Since late 2016, Abu Sayyaf has also been actively targeting large commercial vessels underway – previously considered at lower risk due to their size and speed. As a result, multilateral cooperation is more important than ever. Tackling these more complex forms of piracy will require structured and sustained law enforcement cooperation between regional countries. Unless such cooperation is institutionalized among countries across Southeast Asia, it will diminish as government priorities (and resources) shift elsewhere.
Japan is well placed to regain the regional initiative, either by expanding ReCAAP’s mandate to include all forms of maritime crime, or by establishing a new organization. This paper argues that Tokyo will need to navigate deeply entrenched sovereignty concerns across the region while keeping its counter-piracy efforts separate from the wider competition with China.
Issues & Insights Vol. 16-No. 18, pp. 35-54, Nov 2016
To effectively implement the US-Japan Defense Guidelines, this paper recommends the introduction ... more To effectively implement the US-Japan Defense Guidelines, this paper recommends the introduction of formal partnership programs with third countries, organized and managed by a new Partnership Coordination Mechanism (PCM). The PCM would maintain a standing menu of options for cooperation, which individual partner states could draw upon, depending on their needs and capabilities.
To address any concerns over the PCM, this paper also recommends the establishment of a new Public Diplomacy Coordination Mechanism (PDCM), which would closely coordinate with the new partnership programs and draw upon the resources of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the US State Department.
This article explores the Japan Coast Guard's significant – yet often overlooked – role in Japane... more This article explores the Japan Coast Guard's significant – yet often overlooked – role in Japanese foreign policy. It argues that the Japanese Coast Guard is moving to the forefront of Tokyo’s growing security cooperation with Southeast Asia.
This article analyses the significance of the surge in maritime piracy and armed robbery in South... more This article analyses the significance of the surge in maritime piracy and armed robbery in Southeast Asia in 2014. It assesses the consequences of the increasing use of firearms during incidents, the rise in the number of well-organized attacks against larger vessels, and identifies the main piracy hotspots, such as the Indonesian island of Pulau Karimun Besar.
The article concludes with four recommendations for regional policy-makers. Despite the surge in attacks seen in 2014, Southeast Asian countries may still stem the rising tide by expanding multinational patrols, prioritising counter-piracy in mutilateral forums, and strengthening existing mechanisms.
On 23 October 2014, the European Council agreed on an EU-wide 40% binding reduction in greenhouse... more On 23 October 2014, the European Council agreed on an EU-wide 40% binding reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The agreement represents a compromise between member states favouring stricter and binding emissions reductions – such as Germany – and those opposing more stringent regulations, such as Poland. The compromise was immediately criticised by environmental organisations and several major companies for lacking ambition, which could stifle the growth of the clean energy sector and endanger job creation. However, the Council’s decision makes the EU the only major international actor with a long-term climate change pact. This will ensure that the EU remains the global centre for clean energy innovation for the foreseeable future, limiting any divestment from clean energy companies.
Canadian oil exports to Europe are expected to rise following the European Commission’s (EC) 7 Oc... more Canadian oil exports to Europe are expected to rise following the European Commission’s (EC) 7 October proposal, which abandons plans to label crude from oil sands (also known as bitumen) as highly polluting. This decision signals a major shift in attitude in the Commission after years of fierce opposition from major producer Canada – and paves the way for increased imports over the coming years.
The Russo-Japanese bilateral relationship, severely strained by the crisis in Ukraine, may soon c... more The Russo-Japanese bilateral relationship, severely strained by the crisis in Ukraine, may soon continue as usual and both countries may be eager to mend fences. However, the renewed tensions are almost certain to carry with them at least one long-term consequence: This time around, they could unravel the fragile progress made toward the resolution of the Kuril Islands dispute.
This report is the final product of the first effort of the Pacific Forum CSIS Japan-Korea Workin... more This report is the final product of the first effort of the Pacific Forum CSIS Japan-Korea Working Group, with a focus on the theme “Japan-Korea: Working Together in East Asia and Beyond.” The group has focused initially on building trust and politically feasible areas of collaboration. This report includes five policy briefs with concrete recommendations on areas of cooperation between Japan and Korea.
While these recommendations are specific to the Japan-Korea relationship, they are also tied to the US rebalance and its desire for stronger trilateral cooperation with Japan and Korea. One of the areas explored argues for enhancing Japan-Korea inter-parliamentary exchanges as another avenue for political cooperation. The report also has briefs focused on improving security cooperation between Japan and Korea with a focus on deterrence against North Korea as well as contingency planning for eventual unification of the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the report details other critical areas for cooperation including energy security and counter-piracy.
Philippine Political Science Journal (vol. 35, issue 1), pp. 78-97, May 2014
Various factors influence the (trans)formation of security, foreign, and defense policies of coun... more Various factors influence the (trans)formation of security, foreign, and defense policies of countries. One of them is normative power, a concept that has gained significance in academic debates in the last decade. However, normative power as an emerging though theoretically disputed concept remains a relatively under-researched area in academia. With the exception of research by mostly European scholars, this particularly holds true for case studies of Asian countries.
This article contributes to the body of knowledge on normative power by analyzing the case study of Japan, from the standpoint of a country that has increased and then applied its normative power as an important means through which traditional (interest-based) foreign, security and defense goals can be pursued. In the analysis of Japan’s aspirations to become recognized as a global normative power advocate, we analyze the impact of the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War on the country’s perception of its strategic environment, and subsequent efforts to redefine its role in promoting a new norms-based framework. We also identify three areas in which Japan has been able to strengthen its hard security while simultaneously reinforcing its normative power: its security alliance with the United States, its multi- and bilateral (military) cooperation with other states, and its ability to bolster both its hard and its normative power in an emerging multipolar international system.
This article suggests that Japan and South Korea should enhance cooperation on securing sea lines... more This article suggests that Japan and South Korea should enhance cooperation on securing sea lines of communication and combating maritime piracy. This represents a niche opportunty for greater strategic cooperation, which would avoid the sensitive historical and territorial issues, currently burdening the bilateral relationship. Both states should consider new bilateral initiatives or pursue closer cooperation through multilateral fora.
Bilateral initiatives could include more frequent bilateral naval and coast guard exercises; information sharing and structured dialogue; an exchange programme for coast guard officers; and a Coastal Communities Initiative, which would help develop poor coastal communities in parts of Southeast Asia, where many of the pirate attacks originate.
Multilateral initiatives could include enhanced cooperation within existing mechanisms (such as the Singapore-based ReCAAP, ASEAN, or the ASEAN Regional Forum), or the establishment of new regional fora, such as the proposed Asia-Pacific Coast Guard Forum.
Romanian Journal of Political Science, Vol 13 - No 2 - 2013 // General issue, Jan 2014
The concept of normative power has gained prominence, and consequently, invigorated research ende... more The concept of normative power has gained prominence, and consequently, invigorated research endeavours in recent years. With the exception of the “normative power Europe”, the concept still remains a relatively under-researched topic in international relations. This is particularly valid for case studies of East Asian countries, and this article attempts to fill this void to some extent by analysing the case of Japan. In looking at Japan’s quest for normative power, we analyse three areas, in which successive Japanese governments invested significant financial, material and human resources, aiming at recognition of Japan as “an international force of good”. The three areas are: peace-building (including peace-brokering), human security and regional initiatives (the case of ReCAAP). Even though the normative behaviour of an actor does not imply using the instruments of hard power, this paper argues that Japan, aiming at reinforcing its normative power, has relied on significant economic means, used in the security-related fields. This was conducted multilaterally in accordance with other actors in the international community, but mostly in areas where the ‘normative activities’ of Japan do not contradict the strategic interests of influential international actors.
This study explores business opportunities in the Indian coal based power value chain for Europea... more This study explores business opportunities in the Indian coal based power value chain for European small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that specialise in clean coal technology (CCT), while also providing a general overview of the Indian coal based power value chain and its three 'pillars': coal mining, coal logistics and coal power plants.
South Asia and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia are potential powder kegs of unrest in 2020, a... more South Asia and, to a lesser extent, Southeast Asia are potential powder kegs of unrest in 2020, amid a perfect storm of food shortages, higher prices, sweeping job losses and plummeting remittances.
The dramatic surge in protests in 2019 has swept up a quarter of countries in its tide and sent u... more The dramatic surge in protests in 2019 has swept up a quarter of countries in its tide and sent unprepared governments across all continents reeling. According to our latest data and forecasts, the turmoil is set to continue unabated in 2020.
Despite President Trump’s claims that North Korea will become an “economic powerhouse,” Kim Jong-... more Despite President Trump’s claims that North Korea will become an “economic powerhouse,” Kim Jong-un’s authoritarian regime has been classified as the world’s most perilous investment destination for business.
We used our portfolio of global risk indices to stress test the US president’s assertions by measuring the investability of 198 countries across the key areas of corporate governance; the regulatory framework; property rights protections; and respect of human rights.
For investors in Asia Pacific’s oil and gas industry, there is a mix of good and bad news if we l... more For investors in Asia Pacific’s oil and gas industry, there is a mix of good and bad news if we look ahead over the next couple of years.
On the upside, the region will remain one the most politically stable in the world, with Indonesia, Australia, China and India – four of the region’s biggest capex hotspots – continuing to offer stable political environments in which to operate.
However, according to our Government Stability Index Projection, downside risks will rise in some key investment destinations. We expect the worst news to come out of Myanmar and Thailand, where upcoming elections will increase the potential for political upheaval and likely stall much needed industry reforms. But, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) could also be in for a bumpy political ride with potential implications for investors.
Here’s our roundup of what to watch for across these four markets.
If it takes place, the announced Trump-Kim summit promises to be one of the biggest diplomatic ev... more If it takes place, the announced Trump-Kim summit promises to be one of the biggest diplomatic events in living memory. The willingness of both sides to engage in dialogue is a positive development, a sentiment reflected in today’s cautious optimism, net of Trump tariff fears, among regional markets. We nevertheless maintain our view that the North will not agree to denuclearise – even if it may take steps to reduce tensions in return for concessions.
A long-term solution to the growing amounts of waste generated by the world’s nuclear power plant... more A long-term solution to the growing amounts of waste generated by the world’s nuclear power plants has proved elusive. As a result, nuclear waste is piling up in potentially dangerous, temporary waste sites. A solution may be on the horizon, however. South Australia’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission is exploring the feasibility of an international used fuel (high-level waste) disposal facility. While this is not the first such facility to have been proposed – others are being planned in Finland and Sweden – it would be the first in the Asia-Pacific and could play a vital role in regional nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation efforts.
South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in has pledged a clean break with the Park Geun-hye era, pro... more South Korea’s new president Moon Jae-in has pledged a clean break with the Park Geun-hye era, promising sweeping changes. Moon has vowed to take a different approach not only on the numerous domestic issues thatfeatured prominently during the election campaign, but also in dealing with North Korea.
He has pledged to resume dialogue and revive economic cooperation with the North, and to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. While highly ambitious, Moon’s goal is ultimately unrealistic. The likelihood of Kim Jong-un agreeing to give up his nuclear arsenal – the only guarantee of regime survival – is virtually non-existent, regardless of the economic or other incentives on offer. The best Moon can hope is that the fresh approach can help him to manage tensions better than his predecessor.
Japan has played a key role in multilateral counter-piracy efforts in Southeast Asia since the en... more Japan has played a key role in multilateral counter-piracy efforts in Southeast Asia since the end of the Cold War. The administration of Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo seized the initiative with a series of ambitious proposals for regional cooperation, which resulted in the establishment of ReCAAP, the world’s first international organization with the sole mandate of countering maritime piracy. Another milestone came in 2009, when the government of Aso Taro dispatched the Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) to the Gulf of Aden. However, Japan’s involvement in multilateral counter-piracy efforts became less ambitious under the Abe administration, as the problem of piracy became one of many competing security priorities, subsumed within Japan’s wider geopolitical considerations.
Although overall piracy rates declined in 2016, transnational criminal networks and extremist groups such as Abu Sayyaf have continued to carry out growing numbers of well-organized attacks. This includes a spate of crew abductions in the Sulu and Celebes seas, which has continued into 2017. Since late 2016, Abu Sayyaf has also been actively targeting large commercial vessels underway – previously considered at lower risk due to their size and speed. As a result, multilateral cooperation is more important than ever. Tackling these more complex forms of piracy will require structured and sustained law enforcement cooperation between regional countries. Unless such cooperation is institutionalized among countries across Southeast Asia, it will diminish as government priorities (and resources) shift elsewhere.
Japan is well placed to regain the regional initiative, either by expanding ReCAAP’s mandate to include all forms of maritime crime, or by establishing a new organization. This paper argues that Tokyo will need to navigate deeply entrenched sovereignty concerns across the region while keeping its counter-piracy efforts separate from the wider competition with China.
Issues & Insights Vol. 16-No. 18, pp. 35-54, Nov 2016
To effectively implement the US-Japan Defense Guidelines, this paper recommends the introduction ... more To effectively implement the US-Japan Defense Guidelines, this paper recommends the introduction of formal partnership programs with third countries, organized and managed by a new Partnership Coordination Mechanism (PCM). The PCM would maintain a standing menu of options for cooperation, which individual partner states could draw upon, depending on their needs and capabilities.
To address any concerns over the PCM, this paper also recommends the establishment of a new Public Diplomacy Coordination Mechanism (PDCM), which would closely coordinate with the new partnership programs and draw upon the resources of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the US State Department.
This article explores the Japan Coast Guard's significant – yet often overlooked – role in Japane... more This article explores the Japan Coast Guard's significant – yet often overlooked – role in Japanese foreign policy. It argues that the Japanese Coast Guard is moving to the forefront of Tokyo’s growing security cooperation with Southeast Asia.
This article analyses the significance of the surge in maritime piracy and armed robbery in South... more This article analyses the significance of the surge in maritime piracy and armed robbery in Southeast Asia in 2014. It assesses the consequences of the increasing use of firearms during incidents, the rise in the number of well-organized attacks against larger vessels, and identifies the main piracy hotspots, such as the Indonesian island of Pulau Karimun Besar.
The article concludes with four recommendations for regional policy-makers. Despite the surge in attacks seen in 2014, Southeast Asian countries may still stem the rising tide by expanding multinational patrols, prioritising counter-piracy in mutilateral forums, and strengthening existing mechanisms.
On 23 October 2014, the European Council agreed on an EU-wide 40% binding reduction in greenhouse... more On 23 October 2014, the European Council agreed on an EU-wide 40% binding reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The agreement represents a compromise between member states favouring stricter and binding emissions reductions – such as Germany – and those opposing more stringent regulations, such as Poland. The compromise was immediately criticised by environmental organisations and several major companies for lacking ambition, which could stifle the growth of the clean energy sector and endanger job creation. However, the Council’s decision makes the EU the only major international actor with a long-term climate change pact. This will ensure that the EU remains the global centre for clean energy innovation for the foreseeable future, limiting any divestment from clean energy companies.
Canadian oil exports to Europe are expected to rise following the European Commission’s (EC) 7 Oc... more Canadian oil exports to Europe are expected to rise following the European Commission’s (EC) 7 October proposal, which abandons plans to label crude from oil sands (also known as bitumen) as highly polluting. This decision signals a major shift in attitude in the Commission after years of fierce opposition from major producer Canada – and paves the way for increased imports over the coming years.
The Russo-Japanese bilateral relationship, severely strained by the crisis in Ukraine, may soon c... more The Russo-Japanese bilateral relationship, severely strained by the crisis in Ukraine, may soon continue as usual and both countries may be eager to mend fences. However, the renewed tensions are almost certain to carry with them at least one long-term consequence: This time around, they could unravel the fragile progress made toward the resolution of the Kuril Islands dispute.
This report is the final product of the first effort of the Pacific Forum CSIS Japan-Korea Workin... more This report is the final product of the first effort of the Pacific Forum CSIS Japan-Korea Working Group, with a focus on the theme “Japan-Korea: Working Together in East Asia and Beyond.” The group has focused initially on building trust and politically feasible areas of collaboration. This report includes five policy briefs with concrete recommendations on areas of cooperation between Japan and Korea.
While these recommendations are specific to the Japan-Korea relationship, they are also tied to the US rebalance and its desire for stronger trilateral cooperation with Japan and Korea. One of the areas explored argues for enhancing Japan-Korea inter-parliamentary exchanges as another avenue for political cooperation. The report also has briefs focused on improving security cooperation between Japan and Korea with a focus on deterrence against North Korea as well as contingency planning for eventual unification of the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the report details other critical areas for cooperation including energy security and counter-piracy.
Philippine Political Science Journal (vol. 35, issue 1), pp. 78-97, May 2014
Various factors influence the (trans)formation of security, foreign, and defense policies of coun... more Various factors influence the (trans)formation of security, foreign, and defense policies of countries. One of them is normative power, a concept that has gained significance in academic debates in the last decade. However, normative power as an emerging though theoretically disputed concept remains a relatively under-researched area in academia. With the exception of research by mostly European scholars, this particularly holds true for case studies of Asian countries.
This article contributes to the body of knowledge on normative power by analyzing the case study of Japan, from the standpoint of a country that has increased and then applied its normative power as an important means through which traditional (interest-based) foreign, security and defense goals can be pursued. In the analysis of Japan’s aspirations to become recognized as a global normative power advocate, we analyze the impact of the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War on the country’s perception of its strategic environment, and subsequent efforts to redefine its role in promoting a new norms-based framework. We also identify three areas in which Japan has been able to strengthen its hard security while simultaneously reinforcing its normative power: its security alliance with the United States, its multi- and bilateral (military) cooperation with other states, and its ability to bolster both its hard and its normative power in an emerging multipolar international system.
This article suggests that Japan and South Korea should enhance cooperation on securing sea lines... more This article suggests that Japan and South Korea should enhance cooperation on securing sea lines of communication and combating maritime piracy. This represents a niche opportunty for greater strategic cooperation, which would avoid the sensitive historical and territorial issues, currently burdening the bilateral relationship. Both states should consider new bilateral initiatives or pursue closer cooperation through multilateral fora.
Bilateral initiatives could include more frequent bilateral naval and coast guard exercises; information sharing and structured dialogue; an exchange programme for coast guard officers; and a Coastal Communities Initiative, which would help develop poor coastal communities in parts of Southeast Asia, where many of the pirate attacks originate.
Multilateral initiatives could include enhanced cooperation within existing mechanisms (such as the Singapore-based ReCAAP, ASEAN, or the ASEAN Regional Forum), or the establishment of new regional fora, such as the proposed Asia-Pacific Coast Guard Forum.
Romanian Journal of Political Science, Vol 13 - No 2 - 2013 // General issue, Jan 2014
The concept of normative power has gained prominence, and consequently, invigorated research ende... more The concept of normative power has gained prominence, and consequently, invigorated research endeavours in recent years. With the exception of the “normative power Europe”, the concept still remains a relatively under-researched topic in international relations. This is particularly valid for case studies of East Asian countries, and this article attempts to fill this void to some extent by analysing the case of Japan. In looking at Japan’s quest for normative power, we analyse three areas, in which successive Japanese governments invested significant financial, material and human resources, aiming at recognition of Japan as “an international force of good”. The three areas are: peace-building (including peace-brokering), human security and regional initiatives (the case of ReCAAP). Even though the normative behaviour of an actor does not imply using the instruments of hard power, this paper argues that Japan, aiming at reinforcing its normative power, has relied on significant economic means, used in the security-related fields. This was conducted multilaterally in accordance with other actors in the international community, but mostly in areas where the ‘normative activities’ of Japan do not contradict the strategic interests of influential international actors.
This study explores business opportunities in the Indian coal based power value chain for Europea... more This study explores business opportunities in the Indian coal based power value chain for European small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that specialise in clean coal technology (CCT), while also providing a general overview of the Indian coal based power value chain and its three 'pillars': coal mining, coal logistics and coal power plants.
Uploads
Papers by Miha Hribernik
We used our portfolio of global risk indices to stress test the US president’s assertions by measuring the investability of 198 countries across the key areas of corporate governance; the regulatory framework; property rights protections; and respect of human rights.
On the upside, the region will remain one the most politically stable in the world, with Indonesia, Australia, China and India – four of the region’s biggest capex hotspots – continuing to offer stable political environments in which to operate.
However, according to our Government Stability Index Projection, downside risks will rise in some key investment destinations. We expect the worst news to come out of Myanmar and Thailand, where upcoming elections will increase the potential for political upheaval and likely stall much needed industry reforms. But, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) could also be in for a bumpy political ride with potential implications for investors.
Here’s our roundup of what to watch for across these four markets.
He has pledged to resume dialogue and revive economic cooperation with the North, and to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. While highly ambitious, Moon’s goal is ultimately unrealistic. The likelihood of Kim Jong-un agreeing to give up his nuclear arsenal – the only guarantee of regime survival – is virtually non-existent, regardless of the economic or other incentives on offer. The best Moon can hope is that the fresh approach can help him to manage tensions better than his predecessor.
Although overall piracy rates declined in 2016, transnational criminal networks and extremist groups such as Abu Sayyaf have continued to carry out growing numbers of well-organized attacks. This includes a spate of crew abductions in the Sulu and Celebes seas, which has continued into 2017. Since late 2016, Abu Sayyaf has also been actively targeting large commercial vessels underway – previously considered at lower risk due to their size and speed. As a result, multilateral cooperation is more important than ever. Tackling these more complex forms of piracy will require structured and sustained law enforcement cooperation between regional countries. Unless such cooperation is institutionalized among countries across Southeast Asia, it will diminish as government priorities (and resources) shift elsewhere.
Japan is well placed to regain the regional initiative, either by expanding ReCAAP’s mandate to include all forms of maritime crime, or by establishing a new organization. This paper argues that Tokyo will need to navigate deeply entrenched sovereignty concerns across the region while keeping its counter-piracy efforts separate from the wider competition with China.
To address any concerns over the PCM, this paper also recommends the establishment of a new Public Diplomacy Coordination Mechanism (PDCM), which would closely coordinate with the new partnership programs and draw upon the resources of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the US State Department.
The article concludes with four recommendations for regional policy-makers. Despite the surge in attacks seen in 2014, Southeast Asian countries may still stem the rising tide by expanding multinational patrols, prioritising counter-piracy in mutilateral forums, and strengthening existing mechanisms.
While these recommendations are specific to the Japan-Korea relationship, they are also tied to the US rebalance and its desire for stronger trilateral cooperation with Japan and Korea. One of the areas explored argues for enhancing Japan-Korea inter-parliamentary exchanges as another avenue for political cooperation. The report also has briefs focused on improving security cooperation between Japan and Korea with a focus on deterrence against North Korea as well as contingency planning for eventual unification of the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the report details other critical areas for cooperation including energy security and counter-piracy.
This article contributes to the body of knowledge on normative power by analyzing the case study of Japan, from the standpoint of a country that has increased and then applied its normative power as an important means through which traditional (interest-based) foreign, security and defense goals can be pursued. In the analysis of Japan’s aspirations to become recognized as a global normative power advocate, we analyze the impact of the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War on the country’s perception of its strategic environment, and subsequent efforts to redefine its role in promoting a new norms-based framework. We also identify three areas in which Japan has been able to strengthen its hard security while simultaneously reinforcing its normative power: its security alliance with the United States, its multi- and bilateral (military) cooperation with other states, and its ability to bolster both its hard and its normative power in an emerging multipolar international system.
Bilateral initiatives could include more frequent bilateral naval and coast guard exercises; information sharing and structured dialogue; an exchange programme for coast guard officers; and a Coastal Communities Initiative, which would help develop poor coastal communities in parts of Southeast Asia, where many of the pirate attacks originate.
Multilateral initiatives could include enhanced cooperation within existing mechanisms (such as the Singapore-based ReCAAP, ASEAN, or the ASEAN Regional Forum), or the establishment of new regional fora, such as the proposed Asia-Pacific Coast Guard Forum.
We used our portfolio of global risk indices to stress test the US president’s assertions by measuring the investability of 198 countries across the key areas of corporate governance; the regulatory framework; property rights protections; and respect of human rights.
On the upside, the region will remain one the most politically stable in the world, with Indonesia, Australia, China and India – four of the region’s biggest capex hotspots – continuing to offer stable political environments in which to operate.
However, according to our Government Stability Index Projection, downside risks will rise in some key investment destinations. We expect the worst news to come out of Myanmar and Thailand, where upcoming elections will increase the potential for political upheaval and likely stall much needed industry reforms. But, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) could also be in for a bumpy political ride with potential implications for investors.
Here’s our roundup of what to watch for across these four markets.
He has pledged to resume dialogue and revive economic cooperation with the North, and to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. While highly ambitious, Moon’s goal is ultimately unrealistic. The likelihood of Kim Jong-un agreeing to give up his nuclear arsenal – the only guarantee of regime survival – is virtually non-existent, regardless of the economic or other incentives on offer. The best Moon can hope is that the fresh approach can help him to manage tensions better than his predecessor.
Although overall piracy rates declined in 2016, transnational criminal networks and extremist groups such as Abu Sayyaf have continued to carry out growing numbers of well-organized attacks. This includes a spate of crew abductions in the Sulu and Celebes seas, which has continued into 2017. Since late 2016, Abu Sayyaf has also been actively targeting large commercial vessels underway – previously considered at lower risk due to their size and speed. As a result, multilateral cooperation is more important than ever. Tackling these more complex forms of piracy will require structured and sustained law enforcement cooperation between regional countries. Unless such cooperation is institutionalized among countries across Southeast Asia, it will diminish as government priorities (and resources) shift elsewhere.
Japan is well placed to regain the regional initiative, either by expanding ReCAAP’s mandate to include all forms of maritime crime, or by establishing a new organization. This paper argues that Tokyo will need to navigate deeply entrenched sovereignty concerns across the region while keeping its counter-piracy efforts separate from the wider competition with China.
To address any concerns over the PCM, this paper also recommends the establishment of a new Public Diplomacy Coordination Mechanism (PDCM), which would closely coordinate with the new partnership programs and draw upon the resources of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and the US State Department.
The article concludes with four recommendations for regional policy-makers. Despite the surge in attacks seen in 2014, Southeast Asian countries may still stem the rising tide by expanding multinational patrols, prioritising counter-piracy in mutilateral forums, and strengthening existing mechanisms.
While these recommendations are specific to the Japan-Korea relationship, they are also tied to the US rebalance and its desire for stronger trilateral cooperation with Japan and Korea. One of the areas explored argues for enhancing Japan-Korea inter-parliamentary exchanges as another avenue for political cooperation. The report also has briefs focused on improving security cooperation between Japan and Korea with a focus on deterrence against North Korea as well as contingency planning for eventual unification of the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the report details other critical areas for cooperation including energy security and counter-piracy.
This article contributes to the body of knowledge on normative power by analyzing the case study of Japan, from the standpoint of a country that has increased and then applied its normative power as an important means through which traditional (interest-based) foreign, security and defense goals can be pursued. In the analysis of Japan’s aspirations to become recognized as a global normative power advocate, we analyze the impact of the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War on the country’s perception of its strategic environment, and subsequent efforts to redefine its role in promoting a new norms-based framework. We also identify three areas in which Japan has been able to strengthen its hard security while simultaneously reinforcing its normative power: its security alliance with the United States, its multi- and bilateral (military) cooperation with other states, and its ability to bolster both its hard and its normative power in an emerging multipolar international system.
Bilateral initiatives could include more frequent bilateral naval and coast guard exercises; information sharing and structured dialogue; an exchange programme for coast guard officers; and a Coastal Communities Initiative, which would help develop poor coastal communities in parts of Southeast Asia, where many of the pirate attacks originate.
Multilateral initiatives could include enhanced cooperation within existing mechanisms (such as the Singapore-based ReCAAP, ASEAN, or the ASEAN Regional Forum), or the establishment of new regional fora, such as the proposed Asia-Pacific Coast Guard Forum.