Papers by Dalila Chenaf- Nicet
Statistique descriptive I TD n°5 : Les différentes moyennes Exercice 1 Soient les deux distributi... more Statistique descriptive I TD n°5 : Les différentes moyennes Exercice 1 Soient les deux distributions suivantes : Distribution A : 26 ; 4 ; 7 ; 12 ; 24 ; 7 ; 6 ; 9 ; 13 ; 2.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
In order to diversify their risks, rms facing increased demand uncertainty in their domestic mark... more In order to diversify their risks, rms facing increased demand uncertainty in their domestic market may choose to increase their investment abroad by transferring production to the more stable host economies. Using a gravity model, we test the assumption that foreign direct investment is reactive to macroeconomic instability in both source and host countries in a sample of European and MENA countries for 1985-2009. Using a gravity model form model, we show that the incidence of FDI between two countries increases with source GDP instability and with host GDP stability. We also nd that although this reactivity is not conditioned by trade and investment agreements, it must be qualied with respect to the type of FDI, with North-South vertical investment being signicantly aected by source country uncertainty. For the same level of cost dierential, the incidence of vertical FDI thus tends to be higher when uncertainty is high than when uncertainty is low.
L'Actualité économique, 2001
L'UE, ses dix nouveaux membres et les pays d'Afrique du Nord : polarisation et absence d'effet mo... more L'UE, ses dix nouveaux membres et les pays d'Afrique du Nord : polarisation et absence d'effet moyeu-rayon dans les échanges commerciaux Résumé Ce papier détermine quels sont, parmi les modèles gravitationnels, ceux les mieux adaptés à l'étude de l'évolution des configurations d'échanges de plusieurs régions économiques et de l'hétérogénéité des comportements des pays constitutifs de ces zones (modèles à effets fixes ; erreur composées ; avec correction des biais d'endogénéité). Appliqué aux trois blocs que sont l'UE15, ses 10 nouveaux membres et l'Afrique du Nord, c'est un modèle intégrant des effets fixes combinés aléatoires, de type « payspartenaires », avec correction des biais d'endogénéité, qui s'est avéré le plus adéquat. Il nous a permis d'appréhender en termes de création/détournement de trafic, les relations commerciales des pays des trois zones de référence. Mots-clé : Intégration régionale, Création, Détournement d'échange, Modèle gravitationnel EU, its 10 new members and North Africa : polarization of trade and lack of hubs effects Abstract This paper determines which are, among different type of gravity model, those best adapted to the study of the evolution of trade of several economic areas and of the heterogeneity of the behaviors of the countries constitutive of these zones (fixed effect model; random effect model; model with correction endogeneity biasis). Applied to the three blocks which are the EU, its 10 new members and North Africa, the model with random combined effects (country -partners ) and with correction of endogeneïty biasis the most adequate to apprehend the specific bonds between different countries and apprehend trade creation and trade diversion effects.
Mondes en développement, 2009
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2011
Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development of the MENA countries. In t... more Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development of the MENA countries. In this paper, we aim at measuring both the effects of exports' diversification on growth in MENA countries and the way new exports and FDI interact with each others in the process of growth. Although the effects of FDI on growth have been scrutinized by numerous studies up to now, the effects of diversification and discoveries in export have only very recently been assessed. But no one has made explicit the way FDI and export discoveries interact in the growth process. A model is estimated by the system-GMM and we provide robust evidence that export discovery and FDI stimulate GDP growth in our sample of countries, and that FDI does not necessarily have the same effect on growth according to the level of discovery of the country. We also show that the joint positive effect of new exports and of imports suggest that technological spillover from import but also from the integration to global value chains are likely to occur in our sample of countries.
Cahiers du GRES, 2006
L'UE, ses dix nouveaux membres et les pays d'Afrique du Nord : polarisation et absence d'effet mo... more L'UE, ses dix nouveaux membres et les pays d'Afrique du Nord : polarisation et absence d'effet moyeu-rayon dans les échanges commerciaux Résumé Ce papier détermine quels sont, parmi les modèles gravitationnels, ceux les mieux adaptés à l'étude de l'évolution des configurations d'échanges de plusieurs régions économiques et de l'hétérogénéité des comportements des pays constitutifs de ces zones (modèles à effets fixes ; erreur composées ; avec correction des biais d'endogénéité). Appliqué aux trois blocs que sont l'UE15, ses 10 nouveaux membres et l'Afrique du Nord, c'est un modèle intégrant des effets fixes combinés aléatoires, de type « payspartenaires », avec correction des biais d'endogénéité, qui s'est avéré le plus adéquat. Il nous a permis d'appréhender en termes de création/détournement de trafic, les relations commerciales des pays des trois zones de référence. Mots-clé : Intégration régionale, Création, Détournement d'échange, Modèle gravitationnel EU, its 10 new members and North Africa : polarization of trade and lack of hubs effects Abstract This paper determines which are, among different type of gravity model, those best adapted to the study of the evolution of trade of several economic areas and of the heterogeneity of the behaviors of the countries constitutive of these zones (fixed effect model; random effect model; model with correction endogeneity biasis). Applied to the three blocks which are the EU, its 10 new members and North Africa, the model with random combined effects (country -partners ) and with correction of endogeneïty biasis the most adequate to apprehend the specific bonds between different countries and apprehend trade creation and trade diversion effects.
In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic... more In this paper, we make an attempt to assess empirically the underlying mechanics of macroeconomic instability in LDCs, especially in reaction to an external shock. Several dimensions have been presented by the literature as key factors of instability: macroeconomic policies, institutions, fiscal adjustment, financial development, trade openness, the size of the domestic market, fractionalization social conflict and geography. We test the relative importance of each of these factors in the explanation of the GDP growth instability for a sample of eighty developing economies by pooling three episodes of crisis: a local crisis located in developed economies (EMS crisis of 1992), a local crisis originated in emerging economies (Asian crisis of 1996) and a global crisis (2008). Our framework is fairly close from Malik and Temple (2009), Rodrik, Subramanian and Trebbi (2003) (hereafter RST) or even Rodrik (1999) as we attempt to disentangle the respective impacts of geography, institutions and trade openness on growth volatility, while controlling for the effects of social conflicts and inequalities on the capacity to dampen volatility. In connection to Acemoglu and Zilibotti (1997) and Koren and Tenreyro (2007), we also show that structural outcomes such as the extent of diversification are also of a considerable importance. Finally, we are also close from Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson and Thaicharoen (2003) (hereafter AJRT) as we try to account for the possible endogeneity between institutions and government policies such as macroeconomic policies that are important in the turmoil of an external shock
- La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dan... more - La question du régime de change se pose dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) dans la perspective de l’adhésion à l’Union européenne. De nombreux auteurs, en se basant sur la théorie des zones monétaires optimales, préconisent une adhésion rapide à l’UEM. Nous montrons cependant que si une politique de change fixe a pu être utile en début de transition pour briser les anticipations inflationnistes, une telle politique n’apparaît pas tenable, ni souhaitable, dans une perspective de croissance des PECO. Le besoin de rattrapage économique et la contrainte extérieure (réelle et financière) nécessitent en effet la pleine utilisation des instruments de la politique économique et une certaine souplesse du taux de change.
This article is a contribution to the analysis of f
inancial development diversity in developing ... more This article is a contribution to the analysis of f
inancial development diversity in developing
countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra
mework. By taking into account the degree
of control of banking system and securities markets
, our empirical analysis produces a three-
group typology identifying an embryonic financial s
ystem, an intermediate financial system
bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M
oreover, this typology cannot support
the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun
tries but a model for LDC countries and a
model for developed countries
Human capital measures (schooling) are poor
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing c... more Human capital measures (schooling) are poor
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing countries. An explanation is t
hat increases in human capital have no
significant effect on growth if this human c
apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a
simple two-sector model of a small open economy,
we show that the effect of education on
growth is more significant if the country has ent
ered into the structural change that raises
the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of
entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand
for skills in the modern sector and propose
to measure it through the diversification
of exports. We then derive an econometric
specification from a simple two-sector mode
l of growth with structural change and
different levels of skills. From a sample of
emerging economies, we provide econometric
evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification
of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in
traditional activities is to matter for growth,
it is not through the skill reallocation from
traditional to modern activities whereas ex
port diversification is a factor of higher
growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the
increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that
if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is
more probably through shifts am
ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer
activities than across sectors, from
the traditional to the modern.
L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de
Barcelone » sur... more L’étude menée s’applique à vérifier l’hypothèse d’un effet « accords de
Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée
selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers
son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des
autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis
des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans
une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les
indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.
0 )5 .5 6 . 8 4 .8 6 .4 7 -w w w . g r e t h a .f r
This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equit... more This article investigates the geography of finance through a study of the behavior of large equity investors who are key actors in capitalism. The main argument is based on their expectations in “finance-driven” capitalism: large equity investors require high returns on invested capital in a shorter time and are said to be impatient. The article focuses on their portfolio turnover in relation to geographic factors and their attachment to a specific model of capitalism. The U.S. “market-based” model is presented as a benchmark, since U.S. investors trade securities most frequently relative to other international equity investors. Our empirical findings on the proximity of investors in various models of capitalism with U.S. “impatient” investors contribute to a growing literature on the economic importance of geography in understanding global finance.
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Papers by Dalila Chenaf- Nicet
inancial development diversity in developing
countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra
mework. By taking into account the degree
of control of banking system and securities markets
, our empirical analysis produces a three-
group typology identifying an embryonic financial s
ystem, an intermediate financial system
bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M
oreover, this typology cannot support
the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun
tries but a model for LDC countries and a
model for developed countries
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing countries. An explanation is t
hat increases in human capital have no
significant effect on growth if this human c
apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a
simple two-sector model of a small open economy,
we show that the effect of education on
growth is more significant if the country has ent
ered into the structural change that raises
the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of
entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand
for skills in the modern sector and propose
to measure it through the diversification
of exports. We then derive an econometric
specification from a simple two-sector mode
l of growth with structural change and
different levels of skills. From a sample of
emerging economies, we provide econometric
evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification
of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in
traditional activities is to matter for growth,
it is not through the skill reallocation from
traditional to modern activities whereas ex
port diversification is a factor of higher
growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the
increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that
if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is
more probably through shifts am
ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer
activities than across sectors, from
the traditional to the modern.
Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée
selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers
son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des
autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis
des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans
une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les
indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.
inancial development diversity in developing
countries and lies within model of capitalism’s fra
mework. By taking into account the degree
of control of banking system and securities markets
, our empirical analysis produces a three-
group typology identifying an embryonic financial s
ystem, an intermediate financial system
bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. M
oreover, this typology cannot support
the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging coun
tries but a model for LDC countries and a
model for developed countries
ly significant in explaining growth for
developing countries. An explanation is t
hat increases in human capital have no
significant effect on growth if this human c
apital is misallocated and underemployed. In a
simple two-sector model of a small open economy,
we show that the effect of education on
growth is more significant if the country has ent
ered into the structural change that raises
the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of
entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand
for skills in the modern sector and propose
to measure it through the diversification
of exports. We then derive an econometric
specification from a simple two-sector mode
l of growth with structural change and
different levels of skills. From a sample of
emerging economies, we provide econometric
evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification
of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in
traditional activities is to matter for growth,
it is not through the skill reallocation from
traditional to modern activities whereas ex
port diversification is a factor of higher
growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the
increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that
if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is
more probably through shifts am
ong the industrial sector, from the older to the newer
activities than across sectors, from
the traditional to the modern.
Barcelone » sur la convergence de l’économie marocaine. Celle-ci sera abordée
selon une trois optiques. Celle de la convergence de l’économie marocaine vers
son propre état stationnaire. Celle de la convergence intra-zone vis-à-vis des
autres pays de l’Accord (essentiellement les pays de l’UMA). Pour finir, vis-à-vis
des pays de l’UE, et notamment des pays périphériques du Sud de l’Europe, dans
une logique de convergence inter-zone. Cette étude est menée en utilisant les
indicateurs de β-convergence, et de σ-convergence.