How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provid... more How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provide a typology of responses from target states based on their severity and comprehensiveness level. We argue that the external support level and existing strategic interaction between targets and sponsors are crucial to explain the variation in target responses toward state sponsors since they affect the target states’ level of perceived threat. We test our theoretical claims using an original dataset featuring target responses between 1991 and 2010. Our findings show that strategic rivalry is the most crucial factor in increasing the severity and comprehensiveness of responses. Higher levels of support for rebel groups increase only coercive responses and do not impact comprehensiveness, whereas formal alliances decrease the adoption of mixed responses. Our study contributes to the literature on the external support of rebels and conflict management with implications for predicting target states’ responses to sponsorship.
When governments' ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to... more When governments' ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government's existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.
This paper examines the social-psychological mechanisms behind how citizens deal with uncertainti... more This paper examines the social-psychological mechanisms behind how citizens deal with uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 vaccine developments in societies with prominent social/political cleavages. We argue that existing social/political tensions influence individuals' trust in institutions that are responsible for coping with crises through a motivated reasoning mechanism, which eventually shapes citizens' COVID-19 vaccine intentions. Using a nationally representative face-toface survey conducted in the pre-vaccination period in Turkey, we demonstrate that both self-identifying as a Kurd or feeling close to an opposition party are associated with lower trust in institutions actively dealing with the pandemic, which in turn, results in weaker intentions for getting vaccinated. Testing our full theoretical model reveals that while ethnic and partisan identities do not directly influence vaccine intentions, they exhibit an indirect negative effect via institutional trust impeding the fight against the pandemic. We show that it is difficult to tackle a sudden collective threat that requires public cooperation with health policies if the society is strongly polarized. Our findings offer key policy implications for the vaccination phase of the pandemic, and contribute to the domains of public health, conflict studies and individual judgment and decision-making about social risks.
How do people react to foreign actors’ involvement in a conflict in a third party? Many studies h... more How do people react to foreign actors’ involvement in a conflict in a third party? Many studies have explored how individuals react to their country’s foreign policy choices, as well as how they react to the policies targeting their countries. Yet, we know less about how they form their attitudes regarding the policies not directly aiming at their own countries, and hence, their well-being. Building on intergroup relations and employing a social psychological approach, this article argues that identity serves as a heuristic through which individuals evaluate foreign actors, and their policies targeting in- and out-group members living abroad. Conducting a survey experiment in Turkey, I test my claims in the context of the Syrian Civil War. The findings of the experiments reveal that transnational identity ties have an impact on attitude formation: Turks and Kurds express positive/negative attitudes towards the USA and Russia conditional on whether their involvement to the conflict f...
Why do individuals sympathize with others' wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreig... more Why do individuals sympathize with others' wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreign fighter? By collecting original public opinion data from Lebanon, in 2015, and Turkey in 2017, about the actors of conflict in Syria, we test the argument that an ethno-religious cleavage at home shapes the proclivity of individuals to support others' wars. Individuals may perceive a war abroad as endangering political and social balance of power at home-and hence own survival. Therefore, when transnational identities map onto a national cleavage, as in the Sunni-Shia cleavage in Lebanon, and Turk-Kurd cleavage in Turkey, individuals are more disposed to show sympathy for others' wars both to help their kin and to protect the balance of power at home. Our findings imply that efforts to end the trend toward citizens becoming foreign fighters must start at home by mending the relations between ethnic and religious groups.
How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological positioning? Althou... more How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups’ strategic use of ideology has so far received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique ideological products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel group manifestos and public statements. Our findings suggest that groups are more likely to shift their ideology and modify their demands from the government as the number of rival groups increases.
Examining justice-level determinants of party dissolution decisions can reveal how high Courts ma... more Examining justice-level determinants of party dissolution decisions can reveal how high Courts may influence the public choice by constraining the representation of political ideologies. We argue that Constitutional Court justices strategically engage in politics through party dissolution cases, and justices ‘en garde’ act to guard the regime against anti-establishment ideologies. As a graveyard of political parties, Turkey is an appropriate case to study this claim. By introducing a unique dataset, we demonstrate that communist, religious and ethnic parties in Turkey with considerable public support are more likely to be dissolved by justices having an activist and pro-status quo ideological stance.
Why does one terrorist group employ actions that win the hearts and minds of its constituency whi... more Why does one terrorist group employ actions that win the hearts and minds of its constituency while another resorts to tactics that alienate their support? The paper investigates terrorist groups’ strategy of building reputation in their constituency/in-group population and non-constituency/out-group population. Studying all domestic terrorist groups between 1980 and 2011 with original data, we find that ethnic/religious groups and those with territorial control invest in positive reputation in their constituency as they can minimize the risks of returns. Radical groups and those with cross-border support, however, tend to build negative constituency reputation. While the former type of group has a small constituency, the latter ones can find resources across borders, which reduces their dependency on the constituency. Lastly, we find that terror groups seeking policy concessions avoid building a negative reputation in their non-constituency as this strategy enhances their chances o...
Violence against civilians is not the only tool among the arsenal of terrorists; it is only one o... more Violence against civilians is not the only tool among the arsenal of terrorists; it is only one of many. Up until now, there did not exist any quantitative data on the different strategies adopted by terror groups that measured the group’s popularity or its public support. The Reputation of Terror Groups dataset (RTG) addresses this void. To understand which terror groups build different types of reputation, to analyze the consequences of reputation building and how reputation changes with and influences conflict dynamics, we need to be able to measure the loaded concept of reputation. RTG is the first systematic measure for the reputation of terror groups across countries or time. The dataset includes 443 terror groups operating across 31 years, which makes a total of 2,641 observations. The large sample size of the RTG dataset allows comparisons of popularity among groups. Additionally, the dataset adopts a multivariable approach by examining multiple aspects of both positive and ...
The literature largely neglects whether individual politicians or political parties in proportion... more The literature largely neglects whether individual politicians or political parties in proportional representation enjoy a similar incumbency advantage to the established democracies with SMD. We suggest that institutional settings provide incentives for political parties to field incumbent candidates strategically, depending on district size; and high levels of party system instability in consolidating democracies create conditions under which political parties benefit more from the incumbents' reputations. By using a new dataset, we test whether the incumbency advantage exists, and depends on the district size and the level of political instability in Turkey. Our results indicate that the incumbency advantage in Turkey is largely conditional on the district size. The effect of the party system instability is also substantial. The higher the party system instability, the more political parties benefit from fielding incumbents in party lists.
Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 2020
Turkiye, gerek tarihsel zenginligi, gerekse bulundugu cografi konum itibariyle farkli boyutta bir... more Turkiye, gerek tarihsel zenginligi, gerekse bulundugu cografi konum itibariyle farkli boyutta bircok uluslararasi iliskiler (UI) surecini bolgesinde yasayadurmaktadir. Gerek Turkiye’nin diger ulkelerle kurdugu diplomatik, askeri ve ekonomik iliskiler, gerekse Turkiye’nin sinirlari icinde yasadigi uyusmazliklar kuresel UI yazini icin farkli cozumleme duzeylerinde nitel ve nicel veri uretmektedir. Şu ana kadar Turkiye uzerine ve/veya Turkiye’den toplanmis bircok veri kumesi kuresel UI yazinindaki bircok tartismayi zenginlestirmistir. Bu tartismalar, devlet-disi aktorlerin siyasi yapilanmasindan ulkelerin uluslararasi barisi koruma faaliyetlerine katkilarinin belirleyenlerine kadar genis bir tayfta gerceklesmektedir. Bu calismadaki ana savimiz, Turkiye'de toplanacak bircok verinin kuresel duzlemde ilgi gorebilecegi, bu verilerden olusturulacak veri kumelerini tanitacak makalelerin basli basina prestijli dergilerde yuksek atif alarak yayinlanma potansiyelinin oldugudur. Turkiye teme...
The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 2021
In this article, we examine the impact of the democracy and human rights promotion efforts that a... more In this article, we examine the impact of the democracy and human rights promotion efforts that are supposed to bolster positive attitudes among the public abroad and act as a tool to reach hearts ...
When governments’ ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to... more When governments’ ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government’s existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.
In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the... more In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the power the terror group derives from its reputation. The reputation, which depends on policies and actions the group takes within their constituency, determines the degree to which each group can find recruits, resources, and support for its cause. I contend that terror groups investing on positive or negative reputation within their constituency-the people they claim to represent==are likely to survive longer. Yet, I argue, building a positive reputation has a greater impact on a group's staying power given that this attracts loyal and committed supporters. Conversely, groups with no clearly defined reputation-building policies undergo an organizational change. I find support for my expectations by testing my arguments over all domestic terror groups active between 1980 and 2011 using the RTG and GTD databases. The findings reveal that once a terrorist group is formed, it is exceedingly difficult to obliterate it so long as it follows a clear reputational strategy to achieve their goals.
Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public'... more Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public's attention away from economic instability and rebuild political capital. But, diversionary incentives are not the only motivation; the targeted vulnerable minority's, i.e. out-group's, mobilization capabilities are important. We analyze how the combination of diversionary incentive and out-group mobilization capabilities influence leaders' decision-calculus. Embattled leaders make strategic decisions about both the target and the adequate severity of force to accomplish diversion without risking conflict escalation. We empirically test the resulting hypotheses using the Minorities at Risk (MAR) dataset from 1998-2003 and find support for our expectations. Incentive alone does not determine domestic political use of force; the same incentive produces variance in the severity of force dependent on the targeted out-group's mobilization capability. Governments match the severity of domestic force to political survival goals and the costs and risks of political use of force.
Wars of others’: national cleavages and attitudes toward external conflicts, 2020
Why do individuals sympathize with others’ wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreig... more Why do individuals sympathize with others’ wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreign fighter? By collecting origi- nal public opinion data from Lebanon, in 2015, and Turkey in 2017, about the actors of conflict in Syria, we test the argument that an ethno-religious cleavage at home shapes the proclivity of individuals to support others’ wars. Individuals may perceive a war abroad as endangering political and social balance of power at home – and hence own survival. Therefore, when transnational identities map onto a national cleavage, as in the Sunni–Shia cleavage in Lebanon, and Turk – Kurd cleavage in Turkey, individuals are more disposed to show sympathy for others’ wars both to help their kin and to protect the balance of power at home. Our findings imply that efforts to end the trend toward citizens becoming foreign fighters must start at home by mending the relations between ethnic and religious groups.
The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, lit... more The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, little attention has been given to the characteristics that make for a good target. We argue that US presidents choose targets that repress human rights since they are the easiest to sell to international and domestic audiences. By targeting repressive states US presidents can justify their use of force by cloaking their motivation in the language of human rights, responding to calls for intervention, pointing to the failure of international actors and institutions to resolve these problems, and building upon emerging norms that allow for intervention in repressive states. Updating US Use of Force data, we empirically test and find support for our hypothesis that presidents target human rights abusers when they face trouble at home. This paper contributes to target selection process by offering a complete theory of diversionary conflict accounting for cost/benefit calculation of presidents. Moreover, we believe that our findings reveal human rights practices’ role in international conflict, as well.
How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups' ideological and demand position... more How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups' ideological and demand positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups' strategic use of ideology and demands has received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically and demand-wise from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel
How do people react to the foreign actors' involvement into a conflict in a third party? Many stu... more How do people react to the foreign actors' involvement into a conflict in a third party? Many studies have explored how individuals react to their country's foreign policy choices, as well as how they react to the policies targeting their countries. Yet, we know less about how they form their attitudes regarding the policies not directly aiming for their own countries, and hence, their well-being. Building on inter-group relations and employing a social psychological approach, this article argues that identity serves as a heuristic through which individuals evaluate foreign actors, and their policies targeting in and out-group members living abroad. Conducting a survey experiment in Turkey, I test my claims in the context of Syrian Civil War. The findings of the experiments reveal that transnational identity ties have an impact on attitude formation: Turks and Kurds express positive/negative attitudes towards the US and Russia conditional on whether their involvement to the conflict favor/disfavor their in group/out group across the border. Broadly speaking, the results show that domestic cleavages are of importance in predicting public's reaction to the developments in international politics, which implies a necessity of taking domestic politics in designing soft power promotion and public diplomacy strategies for many global and regional powers in attempting to win hearts and minds abroad.
How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provid... more How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provide a typology of responses from target states based on their severity and comprehensiveness level. We argue that the external support level and existing strategic interaction between targets and sponsors are crucial to explain the variation in target responses toward state sponsors since they affect the target states’ level of perceived threat. We test our theoretical claims using an original dataset featuring target responses between 1991 and 2010. Our findings show that strategic rivalry is the most crucial factor in increasing the severity and comprehensiveness of responses. Higher levels of support for rebel groups increase only coercive responses and do not impact comprehensiveness, whereas formal alliances decrease the adoption of mixed responses. Our study contributes to the literature on the external support of rebels and conflict management with implications for predicting target states’ responses to sponsorship.
When governments' ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to... more When governments' ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government's existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.
This paper examines the social-psychological mechanisms behind how citizens deal with uncertainti... more This paper examines the social-psychological mechanisms behind how citizens deal with uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 vaccine developments in societies with prominent social/political cleavages. We argue that existing social/political tensions influence individuals' trust in institutions that are responsible for coping with crises through a motivated reasoning mechanism, which eventually shapes citizens' COVID-19 vaccine intentions. Using a nationally representative face-toface survey conducted in the pre-vaccination period in Turkey, we demonstrate that both self-identifying as a Kurd or feeling close to an opposition party are associated with lower trust in institutions actively dealing with the pandemic, which in turn, results in weaker intentions for getting vaccinated. Testing our full theoretical model reveals that while ethnic and partisan identities do not directly influence vaccine intentions, they exhibit an indirect negative effect via institutional trust impeding the fight against the pandemic. We show that it is difficult to tackle a sudden collective threat that requires public cooperation with health policies if the society is strongly polarized. Our findings offer key policy implications for the vaccination phase of the pandemic, and contribute to the domains of public health, conflict studies and individual judgment and decision-making about social risks.
How do people react to foreign actors’ involvement in a conflict in a third party? Many studies h... more How do people react to foreign actors’ involvement in a conflict in a third party? Many studies have explored how individuals react to their country’s foreign policy choices, as well as how they react to the policies targeting their countries. Yet, we know less about how they form their attitudes regarding the policies not directly aiming at their own countries, and hence, their well-being. Building on intergroup relations and employing a social psychological approach, this article argues that identity serves as a heuristic through which individuals evaluate foreign actors, and their policies targeting in- and out-group members living abroad. Conducting a survey experiment in Turkey, I test my claims in the context of the Syrian Civil War. The findings of the experiments reveal that transnational identity ties have an impact on attitude formation: Turks and Kurds express positive/negative attitudes towards the USA and Russia conditional on whether their involvement to the conflict f...
Why do individuals sympathize with others' wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreig... more Why do individuals sympathize with others' wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreign fighter? By collecting original public opinion data from Lebanon, in 2015, and Turkey in 2017, about the actors of conflict in Syria, we test the argument that an ethno-religious cleavage at home shapes the proclivity of individuals to support others' wars. Individuals may perceive a war abroad as endangering political and social balance of power at home-and hence own survival. Therefore, when transnational identities map onto a national cleavage, as in the Sunni-Shia cleavage in Lebanon, and Turk-Kurd cleavage in Turkey, individuals are more disposed to show sympathy for others' wars both to help their kin and to protect the balance of power at home. Our findings imply that efforts to end the trend toward citizens becoming foreign fighters must start at home by mending the relations between ethnic and religious groups.
How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological positioning? Althou... more How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups’ strategic use of ideology has so far received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique ideological products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel group manifestos and public statements. Our findings suggest that groups are more likely to shift their ideology and modify their demands from the government as the number of rival groups increases.
Examining justice-level determinants of party dissolution decisions can reveal how high Courts ma... more Examining justice-level determinants of party dissolution decisions can reveal how high Courts may influence the public choice by constraining the representation of political ideologies. We argue that Constitutional Court justices strategically engage in politics through party dissolution cases, and justices ‘en garde’ act to guard the regime against anti-establishment ideologies. As a graveyard of political parties, Turkey is an appropriate case to study this claim. By introducing a unique dataset, we demonstrate that communist, religious and ethnic parties in Turkey with considerable public support are more likely to be dissolved by justices having an activist and pro-status quo ideological stance.
Why does one terrorist group employ actions that win the hearts and minds of its constituency whi... more Why does one terrorist group employ actions that win the hearts and minds of its constituency while another resorts to tactics that alienate their support? The paper investigates terrorist groups’ strategy of building reputation in their constituency/in-group population and non-constituency/out-group population. Studying all domestic terrorist groups between 1980 and 2011 with original data, we find that ethnic/religious groups and those with territorial control invest in positive reputation in their constituency as they can minimize the risks of returns. Radical groups and those with cross-border support, however, tend to build negative constituency reputation. While the former type of group has a small constituency, the latter ones can find resources across borders, which reduces their dependency on the constituency. Lastly, we find that terror groups seeking policy concessions avoid building a negative reputation in their non-constituency as this strategy enhances their chances o...
Violence against civilians is not the only tool among the arsenal of terrorists; it is only one o... more Violence against civilians is not the only tool among the arsenal of terrorists; it is only one of many. Up until now, there did not exist any quantitative data on the different strategies adopted by terror groups that measured the group’s popularity or its public support. The Reputation of Terror Groups dataset (RTG) addresses this void. To understand which terror groups build different types of reputation, to analyze the consequences of reputation building and how reputation changes with and influences conflict dynamics, we need to be able to measure the loaded concept of reputation. RTG is the first systematic measure for the reputation of terror groups across countries or time. The dataset includes 443 terror groups operating across 31 years, which makes a total of 2,641 observations. The large sample size of the RTG dataset allows comparisons of popularity among groups. Additionally, the dataset adopts a multivariable approach by examining multiple aspects of both positive and ...
The literature largely neglects whether individual politicians or political parties in proportion... more The literature largely neglects whether individual politicians or political parties in proportional representation enjoy a similar incumbency advantage to the established democracies with SMD. We suggest that institutional settings provide incentives for political parties to field incumbent candidates strategically, depending on district size; and high levels of party system instability in consolidating democracies create conditions under which political parties benefit more from the incumbents' reputations. By using a new dataset, we test whether the incumbency advantage exists, and depends on the district size and the level of political instability in Turkey. Our results indicate that the incumbency advantage in Turkey is largely conditional on the district size. The effect of the party system instability is also substantial. The higher the party system instability, the more political parties benefit from fielding incumbents in party lists.
Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 2020
Turkiye, gerek tarihsel zenginligi, gerekse bulundugu cografi konum itibariyle farkli boyutta bir... more Turkiye, gerek tarihsel zenginligi, gerekse bulundugu cografi konum itibariyle farkli boyutta bircok uluslararasi iliskiler (UI) surecini bolgesinde yasayadurmaktadir. Gerek Turkiye’nin diger ulkelerle kurdugu diplomatik, askeri ve ekonomik iliskiler, gerekse Turkiye’nin sinirlari icinde yasadigi uyusmazliklar kuresel UI yazini icin farkli cozumleme duzeylerinde nitel ve nicel veri uretmektedir. Şu ana kadar Turkiye uzerine ve/veya Turkiye’den toplanmis bircok veri kumesi kuresel UI yazinindaki bircok tartismayi zenginlestirmistir. Bu tartismalar, devlet-disi aktorlerin siyasi yapilanmasindan ulkelerin uluslararasi barisi koruma faaliyetlerine katkilarinin belirleyenlerine kadar genis bir tayfta gerceklesmektedir. Bu calismadaki ana savimiz, Turkiye'de toplanacak bircok verinin kuresel duzlemde ilgi gorebilecegi, bu verilerden olusturulacak veri kumelerini tanitacak makalelerin basli basina prestijli dergilerde yuksek atif alarak yayinlanma potansiyelinin oldugudur. Turkiye teme...
The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 2021
In this article, we examine the impact of the democracy and human rights promotion efforts that a... more In this article, we examine the impact of the democracy and human rights promotion efforts that are supposed to bolster positive attitudes among the public abroad and act as a tool to reach hearts ...
When governments’ ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to... more When governments’ ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government’s existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.
In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the... more In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the power the terror group derives from its reputation. The reputation, which depends on policies and actions the group takes within their constituency, determines the degree to which each group can find recruits, resources, and support for its cause. I contend that terror groups investing on positive or negative reputation within their constituency-the people they claim to represent==are likely to survive longer. Yet, I argue, building a positive reputation has a greater impact on a group's staying power given that this attracts loyal and committed supporters. Conversely, groups with no clearly defined reputation-building policies undergo an organizational change. I find support for my expectations by testing my arguments over all domestic terror groups active between 1980 and 2011 using the RTG and GTD databases. The findings reveal that once a terrorist group is formed, it is exceedingly difficult to obliterate it so long as it follows a clear reputational strategy to achieve their goals.
Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public'... more Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public's attention away from economic instability and rebuild political capital. But, diversionary incentives are not the only motivation; the targeted vulnerable minority's, i.e. out-group's, mobilization capabilities are important. We analyze how the combination of diversionary incentive and out-group mobilization capabilities influence leaders' decision-calculus. Embattled leaders make strategic decisions about both the target and the adequate severity of force to accomplish diversion without risking conflict escalation. We empirically test the resulting hypotheses using the Minorities at Risk (MAR) dataset from 1998-2003 and find support for our expectations. Incentive alone does not determine domestic political use of force; the same incentive produces variance in the severity of force dependent on the targeted out-group's mobilization capability. Governments match the severity of domestic force to political survival goals and the costs and risks of political use of force.
Wars of others’: national cleavages and attitudes toward external conflicts, 2020
Why do individuals sympathize with others’ wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreig... more Why do individuals sympathize with others’ wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreign fighter? By collecting origi- nal public opinion data from Lebanon, in 2015, and Turkey in 2017, about the actors of conflict in Syria, we test the argument that an ethno-religious cleavage at home shapes the proclivity of individuals to support others’ wars. Individuals may perceive a war abroad as endangering political and social balance of power at home – and hence own survival. Therefore, when transnational identities map onto a national cleavage, as in the Sunni–Shia cleavage in Lebanon, and Turk – Kurd cleavage in Turkey, individuals are more disposed to show sympathy for others’ wars both to help their kin and to protect the balance of power at home. Our findings imply that efforts to end the trend toward citizens becoming foreign fighters must start at home by mending the relations between ethnic and religious groups.
The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, lit... more The diversionary theory largely focuses on the incentives leaders have to use force. However, little attention has been given to the characteristics that make for a good target. We argue that US presidents choose targets that repress human rights since they are the easiest to sell to international and domestic audiences. By targeting repressive states US presidents can justify their use of force by cloaking their motivation in the language of human rights, responding to calls for intervention, pointing to the failure of international actors and institutions to resolve these problems, and building upon emerging norms that allow for intervention in repressive states. Updating US Use of Force data, we empirically test and find support for our hypothesis that presidents target human rights abusers when they face trouble at home. This paper contributes to target selection process by offering a complete theory of diversionary conflict accounting for cost/benefit calculation of presidents. Moreover, we believe that our findings reveal human rights practices’ role in international conflict, as well.
How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups' ideological and demand position... more How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups' ideological and demand positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups' strategic use of ideology and demands has received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically and demand-wise from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel
How do people react to the foreign actors' involvement into a conflict in a third party? Many stu... more How do people react to the foreign actors' involvement into a conflict in a third party? Many studies have explored how individuals react to their country's foreign policy choices, as well as how they react to the policies targeting their countries. Yet, we know less about how they form their attitudes regarding the policies not directly aiming for their own countries, and hence, their well-being. Building on inter-group relations and employing a social psychological approach, this article argues that identity serves as a heuristic through which individuals evaluate foreign actors, and their policies targeting in and out-group members living abroad. Conducting a survey experiment in Turkey, I test my claims in the context of Syrian Civil War. The findings of the experiments reveal that transnational identity ties have an impact on attitude formation: Turks and Kurds express positive/negative attitudes towards the US and Russia conditional on whether their involvement to the conflict favor/disfavor their in group/out group across the border. Broadly speaking, the results show that domestic cleavages are of importance in predicting public's reaction to the developments in international politics, which implies a necessity of taking domestic politics in designing soft power promotion and public diplomacy strategies for many global and regional powers in attempting to win hearts and minds abroad.
Domestic terrorist groups, like all violent nonstate actors, compete with governments for their m... more Domestic terrorist groups, like all violent nonstate actors, compete with governments for their monopoly on violence and their legitimacy in representing the citizenry. Battle for Allegiance shows violence is neither the only nor the most effective way in which nonstate actors and governments work to achieve their goals. As much as nonviolent strategies are a rarely considered piece of the puzzle, the role of the audience is another crucial piece often downplayed in the literature. Many studies emphasize the interactions between the government and the terrorist group at the expense of the constituency, but the constituency is the common cluster for both actors to gain legitimacy and to demand its allegiance. In fact, the competition between the two actors goes far beyond who is superior in terms of military force and tactics. The hardest battles are fought over the allegiance of the citizens. Using a multimethod approach based on exclusive interviews and focus groups from Turkey and large N original data from around the world, Seden Akcinaroglu and Efe Tokdemir present the first systematic empirical analysis of the ways in which terrorist groups, the government, and the citizens relate to each other in a triadic web of action. They study the nonviolent actions of terrorist groups toward their constituencies, the nonviolent actions of governments toward terrorists, and the nonviolent actions of governments toward the terrorist group's constituencies. By investigating the causes, targets, and consequences of accommodative actions, this book sheds light on an important, but generally ignored, aspect of terrorism: interactive nonviolent strategies.
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