Papers by Bhanu Pratap Singh
Book Chapter in Agrawal, A.K. (2017) Champaran Satyagraha: A Sociopolitical Crucible, 2017
The major aim of the paper is to empirically examine the growth effects of public expenditure in ... more The major aim of the paper is to empirically examine the growth effects of public expenditure in the Indian context. The study utilizes
annual time series data for the period spanning from 1981 to 2012.Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic
Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) procedure of cointegration technique is applied to examine long-run equilibrium relationship
among economic growth, public expenditure, and inflation. Two-stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression method is employed to
check the stability of the parameters estimated by FMOLS and DOLS. Granger causality in VAR block exogeneity test is used to look
into the short-run causal relationship among the considered variables. The major finding of the study shows increase in public
expenditure leads to increase economic growth in the long-run and supports the Keynesian approach. In the short-run economic
growth causes rise in public expenditure and a rise in public expenditure creates inflationary pressure in the economy. Both in the
short-run and in the long-run inflation adversely affects economic well-being. In the short-run public expenditure fails to create the
growth effect because of the inflationary effects of public spending which winds up growth effect.
Background: The suitability and performance of the bankruptcy prediction models is
an empirical q... more Background: The suitability and performance of the bankruptcy prediction models is
an empirical question. The aim of this paper is to develop a bankruptcy prediction
model for Indian manufacturing companies on a sample of 208 companies
consisting of an equal number of defaulted and non-defaulted firms. Out of 208
companies, 130 are used for estimation sample, and 78 are holdout for model
validation. The study reestimates the accounting based models such as Altman EI
(Journal of Finance 23: 19189–209, 1968) Z-Score, Ohlson JA (Journal of Accounting
Research 18:109–131, 1980) Y-Score and Zmijewski ME (Journal of Accounting
Research 22:59–82, 1984) X-Score model. The paper compares original and
re-estimated models to explore the sensitivity of these models towards the change
in time periods and financial conditions.
Methods: Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Probit techniques are employed
in the estimation of Z-Score and X-Score models, whereas Logit technique is
employed in the estimation of Y-Score and the newly proposed models. The
performance of all the original, re-estimated and new proposed models are assessed
by predictive accuracy, significance of parameters, long-range accuracy, secondary
sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests.
Results: The major findings of the study reveal that the overall predictive accuracy
of all the three models improves on estimation and holdout sample when the
coefficients are re-estimated. Amongst the contesting models, the new bankruptcy
prediction model outperforms other models.
Conclusions: The industry specific model should be developed with the new
combinations of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy of the firms in a particular
country. The study further suggests the coefficients of the models are sensitive to
time periods and financial condition. Hence, researchers should be cautioned while
choosing the models for bankruptcy prediction to recalculate the models by looking
at the recent data in order to get higher predictive accuracy.
Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction, Indian manufacturing companies, MDA, Logit,
Probit, Unstable coefficient, Predictive accuracy, Receiver operating characteristic,
Long range accuracy
JEL Classification Codes: G 33
The paper models default probabilities for Indian companies in Black-Scholes-Metron (BSM) framewo... more The paper models default probabilities for Indian companies in Black-Scholes-Metron (BSM) framework. The objective Probability of Default (PD) estimates are found to be higher for firms registered with Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR). The proposed method can be applied to obtain direct PD estimates of companies to track their default status, calculate credit capital and corporate pricing by investors and financial institutions.
The aim of the paper is to propose a method to predict corporate bankruptcy and provide tool whic... more The aim of the paper is to propose a method to predict corporate bankruptcy and provide tool which can be used as an early warning signal to foretell corporate bankruptcy in emerging economies like India using accounting based information. The paper investigates the key variables to predict corporate bankruptcy in a Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) framework which can better predict firm’s distress. The proposed model has higher classification power on both estimation and holdout sample. The major finding of the study suggests movement in the asset value and cumulative profitability are the most significant variables to predict corporate bankruptcy, and the most recent year financial information are more helpful in predicting bankruptcy.
The aim of the study is to empirically examine Schumpeter's view on finance and growth nexus in I... more The aim of the study is to empirically examine Schumpeter's view on finance and growth nexus in Indian setting. The study utilizes quarterly time series data for the period spanning from 1993:Q3 to 2013:Q2. After studying the construction of Indian financial system, both banking sector and stock market growth indicators are considered as the placeholder for financial sector growth. Nevertheless, real GDP growth is considered to represent the economic growth. Along with financial sector development and economic growth indicators, some control variables, namely; total government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP, total trade as a percentage of GDP and inflation is applied as a control variable. Johansen maximum likelihood procedure of cointegration is employed to ensure the long run dynamics among the set of considered variables. Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger 's Causality tests is applied to look into short-run causal relationship.The study concludes, Schumpeter's view on finance and growth nexus does not hold well in the context of Indian economy.
The aim of the paper is to propose a method for directly estimating probability of default (PD) o... more The aim of the paper is to propose a method for directly estimating probability of default (PD) of Indian companies using financial as well as non-financial information. It also provides tool which can be used as an early warning signal to foretell corporate bankruptcy in emerging economies like India. Two well-known accounting based models, namely, ZETA and Logit model are employed to predict corporate bankruptcy and estimate PD of firms respectively. A market based Metron model, which uses market based information is also employed to obtain direct PD estimates of companies. Both the accounting based models shows high classification rate on estimation and holdout sample. In the Indian context Logit model outperforms ZETA model on three parameters, namely, non-linear default event, inclusion of non-financial variables and produces direct PD estimates. There is significant difference found in estimated PD of defaulted and non-defaulted firms using Metron model. The PD of defaulted firms are higher than non-defaulted firms. The ZETA model can be used as an early warning signal and Logit and Metron model can be applied to estimate PD which can be used to calculate credit capital and corporate pricing by investors and financial institutions.
The study focuses to examine the nexus of financial development and economic growth in India. Des... more The study focuses to examine the nexus of financial development and economic growth in India. Despite of multiple views on this nexus all schools of economic thought acknowledged the role of finance as a facilitator in the economic system. The current study uses the functional approach to finance growth nexus in which financial development reduces market frictions via transaction and information cost in the economy. The study utilizes annual time series data for the period spanning from 1988 to 2011. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure of cointegration techniques are utilized to examine the long-run equilibrium dynamics among financial development and economic growth indicators. Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger's Causality tests was applied to look into the short-run causal relationship. The major findings of the study suggest that Schumpeter's view on finance and growth nexus does not keep good in the context of Indian economy.
Book Chapter in Ramulu, K. (Eds.) Corporate Finance and Financial Services. Spectrum Publications: Hyderabad., 2014
The paper focus to examine the impact of merger and acquisition (M&A) on shareholder wealth of bo... more The paper focus to examine the impact of merger and acquisition (M&A) on shareholder wealth of both target and acquirer firms. The study is based on synergies and agency cost theories which explain the impact of M&A on shareholders wealth. Event study analysis is used to examine the impact of M&A on equity prices of major Indian pharmaceutical companies. The CAPM model with and without dummy for a financial crisis is used to measure normal returns of firms. The major finding of the study show both the acquirer and target companies are benefited from M&Q whereas for some companies there is an indication of agency element.
Research Journal of Economics and Business Studies , 2014
There is too much criticism of PDS came in the recent times. This paper is basically focused to e... more There is too much criticism of PDS came in the recent times. This paper is basically focused to examine the effectiveness of PDS on the front of price rise, poverty alleviation and hunger. Some critical issues related to PDS are discussed in the later sections. The malfunctioning of PDS is really a critical issue and there is urgent need to check these leakages in order to save public money, and provide exclusive benefit to the people who deserve it.
Books by Bhanu Pratap Singh
Background: The suitability and performance of the bankruptcy prediction models is an empirical q... more Background: The suitability and performance of the bankruptcy prediction models is an empirical question. The aim of this paper is to develop a bankruptcy prediction model for Indian manufacturing companies on a sample of 208 companies consisting of an equal number of defaulted and non-defaulted firms. Out of 208 companies, 130 are used for estimation sample, and 78 are holdout for model validation. The study reestimates the accounting based models such as Altman EI) X-Score model. The paper compares original and re-estimated models to explore the sensitivity of these models towards the change in time periods and financial conditions. Methods: Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Probit techniques are employed in the estimation of Z-Score and X-Score models, whereas Logit technique is employed in the estimation of Y-Score and the newly proposed models. The performance of all the original, re-estimated and new proposed models are assessed by predictive accuracy, significance of parameters, long-range accuracy, secondary sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. Results: The major findings of the study reveal that the overall predictive accuracy of all the three models improves on estimation and holdout sample when the coefficients are re-estimated. Amongst the contesting models, the new bankruptcy prediction model outperforms other models.
The paper models default probabilities for Indian companies in Black-Scholes-Metron (BSM) framewo... more The paper models default probabilities for Indian companies in Black-Scholes-Metron (BSM) framework. The objective Probability of Default (PD) estimates are found to be higher for firms registered with Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR). The proposed method can be applied to obtain direct PD estimates of companies to track their default status, calculate credit capital and corporate pricing by investors and financial institutions.
Book Reviews by Bhanu Pratap Singh
The release of a book, Why I am a Hindu is amidst controversial debate of Hindu and anti- Hindu i... more The release of a book, Why I am a Hindu is amidst controversial debate of Hindu and anti- Hindu in India by Congress party leader and intellectual Shashi Tharoor. For long time the writer is criticized from Hindu nationalist groups for being anti-Hindu. The book uncovers one of the oldest religions of the world with writers own belief in Hinduism. The book is divided into three parts in which author explains his own belief of Hinduism, political Hinduism and taking back Hinduism. In the first part of the book, there are four chapters on the theme about my belief on Hinduism in which he covers his own belief of Hinduism, Hindu ways, questioning Hindu customs, and discusses great soul of Hinduism. The second part of the book under the theme political Hinduism has two chapters on politics of Hindutva, and uses and abuses of Hindu culture and history. The last part of the book has only one chapter on the theme of taking back Hinduism. The book is response to the allegation on him for being anti-Hindu.
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Papers by Bhanu Pratap Singh
annual time series data for the period spanning from 1981 to 2012.Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic
Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) procedure of cointegration technique is applied to examine long-run equilibrium relationship
among economic growth, public expenditure, and inflation. Two-stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression method is employed to
check the stability of the parameters estimated by FMOLS and DOLS. Granger causality in VAR block exogeneity test is used to look
into the short-run causal relationship among the considered variables. The major finding of the study shows increase in public
expenditure leads to increase economic growth in the long-run and supports the Keynesian approach. In the short-run economic
growth causes rise in public expenditure and a rise in public expenditure creates inflationary pressure in the economy. Both in the
short-run and in the long-run inflation adversely affects economic well-being. In the short-run public expenditure fails to create the
growth effect because of the inflationary effects of public spending which winds up growth effect.
an empirical question. The aim of this paper is to develop a bankruptcy prediction
model for Indian manufacturing companies on a sample of 208 companies
consisting of an equal number of defaulted and non-defaulted firms. Out of 208
companies, 130 are used for estimation sample, and 78 are holdout for model
validation. The study reestimates the accounting based models such as Altman EI
(Journal of Finance 23: 19189–209, 1968) Z-Score, Ohlson JA (Journal of Accounting
Research 18:109–131, 1980) Y-Score and Zmijewski ME (Journal of Accounting
Research 22:59–82, 1984) X-Score model. The paper compares original and
re-estimated models to explore the sensitivity of these models towards the change
in time periods and financial conditions.
Methods: Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Probit techniques are employed
in the estimation of Z-Score and X-Score models, whereas Logit technique is
employed in the estimation of Y-Score and the newly proposed models. The
performance of all the original, re-estimated and new proposed models are assessed
by predictive accuracy, significance of parameters, long-range accuracy, secondary
sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests.
Results: The major findings of the study reveal that the overall predictive accuracy
of all the three models improves on estimation and holdout sample when the
coefficients are re-estimated. Amongst the contesting models, the new bankruptcy
prediction model outperforms other models.
Conclusions: The industry specific model should be developed with the new
combinations of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy of the firms in a particular
country. The study further suggests the coefficients of the models are sensitive to
time periods and financial condition. Hence, researchers should be cautioned while
choosing the models for bankruptcy prediction to recalculate the models by looking
at the recent data in order to get higher predictive accuracy.
Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction, Indian manufacturing companies, MDA, Logit,
Probit, Unstable coefficient, Predictive accuracy, Receiver operating characteristic,
Long range accuracy
JEL Classification Codes: G 33
Books by Bhanu Pratap Singh
Book Reviews by Bhanu Pratap Singh
annual time series data for the period spanning from 1981 to 2012.Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic
Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) procedure of cointegration technique is applied to examine long-run equilibrium relationship
among economic growth, public expenditure, and inflation. Two-stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression method is employed to
check the stability of the parameters estimated by FMOLS and DOLS. Granger causality in VAR block exogeneity test is used to look
into the short-run causal relationship among the considered variables. The major finding of the study shows increase in public
expenditure leads to increase economic growth in the long-run and supports the Keynesian approach. In the short-run economic
growth causes rise in public expenditure and a rise in public expenditure creates inflationary pressure in the economy. Both in the
short-run and in the long-run inflation adversely affects economic well-being. In the short-run public expenditure fails to create the
growth effect because of the inflationary effects of public spending which winds up growth effect.
an empirical question. The aim of this paper is to develop a bankruptcy prediction
model for Indian manufacturing companies on a sample of 208 companies
consisting of an equal number of defaulted and non-defaulted firms. Out of 208
companies, 130 are used for estimation sample, and 78 are holdout for model
validation. The study reestimates the accounting based models such as Altman EI
(Journal of Finance 23: 19189–209, 1968) Z-Score, Ohlson JA (Journal of Accounting
Research 18:109–131, 1980) Y-Score and Zmijewski ME (Journal of Accounting
Research 22:59–82, 1984) X-Score model. The paper compares original and
re-estimated models to explore the sensitivity of these models towards the change
in time periods and financial conditions.
Methods: Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Probit techniques are employed
in the estimation of Z-Score and X-Score models, whereas Logit technique is
employed in the estimation of Y-Score and the newly proposed models. The
performance of all the original, re-estimated and new proposed models are assessed
by predictive accuracy, significance of parameters, long-range accuracy, secondary
sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests.
Results: The major findings of the study reveal that the overall predictive accuracy
of all the three models improves on estimation and holdout sample when the
coefficients are re-estimated. Amongst the contesting models, the new bankruptcy
prediction model outperforms other models.
Conclusions: The industry specific model should be developed with the new
combinations of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy of the firms in a particular
country. The study further suggests the coefficients of the models are sensitive to
time periods and financial condition. Hence, researchers should be cautioned while
choosing the models for bankruptcy prediction to recalculate the models by looking
at the recent data in order to get higher predictive accuracy.
Keywords: Bankruptcy prediction, Indian manufacturing companies, MDA, Logit,
Probit, Unstable coefficient, Predictive accuracy, Receiver operating characteristic,
Long range accuracy
JEL Classification Codes: G 33