Papers by Mark Anthony Delucchi
ACCESS Magazine, Sep 1, 1992
ITF round tables, Feb 28, 2008
University of California Transportation Center, Mar 1, 1987
Absinth--Crees often opt for rod transmt even when agency evaluations conclude that other alterna... more Absinth--Crees often opt for rod transmt even when agency evaluations conclude that other alternatives are superior m performance and effaclency The choice of light raft transit (LKT) m Sacramento, Cahforma serves as a case study When adjustments are made for overstated assumptions and irregular mampolauous of data m the Sacramento evaluataon, the LRT project is somewhat inferior on all technical grounds to other proposed alternatives This article asks why a local decmon was made to pursue the hght rod optaon The LRT choice is exanuned m the broader context of government structure and deemon-makmg, earmarked state and federal funding, and local planmng It is shown that local decmon makers have broad economic and social concerns that are not incorporated into standard tech.,ucal evaltmttous, and that they are provided with highly uncertain projections, especmUy for ndersbap Not surprisingly, local pohttoans were skepacal of the techmcal evaluations and weighed local values and strategic funding factors heavily m their deezsion Whale we do not advocate porkbarrehng, we beheve that the choice of LRT, to the extent that it reflected leg~Umate local concerns, was vahd We suggest ~mprovements m transit evaluauon methods and observe that the 1984 changes in UMTA evaluatmB procedures appear to consider uncertainty correctly and to include local pohucal support m a meaningful way Pohttcs and techmcal tmccrtamty in transportation investment
Tables rondes FIT, Feb 29, 2008
Ce document presente un examen des questions liees au bilan energetique classique et a l’impact s... more Ce document presente un examen des questions liees au bilan energetique classique et a l’impact sur le changement climatique des biocarburants. En ce qui concerne, d’une part, les bilans energetiques classiques et les bilans des emissions de gaz a effet de serre de la production et de l’utilisation d’une gamme de combustibles et, d’autre part, les questions importantes et de plus en plus controversees liees aux incidences autres que les gaz a effet de serre, notamment sur l’utilisation des terres, les engrais et l’eau, il est a notre avis necessaire d’ameliorer le cadre d’analyse et d’evaluation des biocarburants. Des nouvelles methodologies et de nouveaux ensembles de donnees sont en effet indispensables pour examiner les aspects tant physiques que socio-economiques du cycle de vie des biocarburants. Certains composants susceptibles d’etre utilises pour construire cette methodologie sont presentes en detail et les principaux domaines pour la recherche future sont mis en evidence. Enfin, nous examinons l’historique et les effets potentiels de la creation d’une base de ressources pour la recherche sur les biocarburants ainsi que certains impacts sur l’utilisation des terres et sur les aspects socio-economiques des differentes filieres de production de matieres de base pour les carburants.
University of California, Davis. Institute of Transportation Studies. Research report, Oct 1, 2004
The literature on externalities is enormous, and there have been extensive debates on terminology... more The literature on externalities is enormous, and there have been extensive debates on terminology and particular aspects of externalities (e.g.,
ABSTRACT The efficiency of energy using durable goods, from automobiles to home air conditioners,... more ABSTRACT The efficiency of energy using durable goods, from automobiles to home air conditioners, is not only a key determinant of economy-wide energy use but also of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate change and energy insecurity. Energy analysts have long noted that consumers appear to have high implicit discount rates for future fuel savings when choosing among energy using durable goods (Howarth and Sanstad, 1995). In modeling consumers choices of appliances, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has used discount rates of 30 percent for heating systems, 69 percent for choice of refrigerator and up to 111 percent for choice of water heater (U.S. DOE/EIA, 1996). Several explanations have been offered for this widespread phenomenon, including asymmetric information, bounded rationality and transaction costs. This chapter argues that uncertainty combined with loss aversion by consumers is sufficient to explain the failure to adopt cost effective energy efficiency improvements in the market for automotive fuel economy, although other market failures appear to be present as well. Understanding how markets for energy efficiency function is crucial to formulating effective energy policies (see Pizer, 2006). Fischer et al., (2004), for example, demonstrated that if consumers fully value the discounted present value of future fuel savings, fuel economy standards are largely redundant and produce small welfare losses. However, if consumers value only the first three years of fuel savings, then fuel economy standards can significantly increase consumer welfare. The nature of any market failure that might be present in the market for energy efficiency would also affect the relative efficacy of energy taxes versus regulatory standards (CBO, 2003). If markets function efficiently, energy taxes would generally be more efficient than regulatory standards in increasing energy efficiency and reducing energy use. If markets are decidedly inefficient, standards would likely be more effective. The chapter explores the roles of uncertainty and loss-aversion in the market for automotive fuel economy. The focus is on the determination of the technical efficiency of the vehicle rather than consumers choices among vehicles. Over the past three decades, changes in the mix of vehicles sold has played little if any role in raising the average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles from 13 miles per gallon (mpg) in 1975 to 21 mpg today (Heavenrich, 2006). Over that same time period, average vehicle weight is up 2 percent, horsepower is up 60 percent, passenger car interior volume increased by 2 percent and the market share of light trucks grew by 31 percentage points. Historically, at least, increasing light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States has been a matter of manufacturers decisions to apply technology to increase the technical efficiency of cars and light trucks. Understanding how efficiently the market determines the technical fuel economy of new vehicles would seem to be critical to formulating effective policies to encourage future fuel economy improvement. The central issue is whether or not the market for fuel economy is economically efficient. Rubenstein (1998) lists the key assumptions of the rational economic decision model. The decision maker must have a clear picture of the choice problem he or she faces. He should be fully aware of the set of alternatives from which to choose and have the skill necessary to make complicated calculations needed to discover the optimal course of action. Finally, the decision maker should have the unlimited ability to calculate and be indifferent to alternatives and choice sets.
Journal of Environmental Management, Feb 1, 2002
Air pollution from motor vehicles, electricity-generating plants, industry, and other sources can... more Air pollution from motor vehicles, electricity-generating plants, industry, and other sources can harm human health, injure crops and forests, damage building materials, and impair visibility. Economists sometimes analyze the social cost of these impacts, in order to illuminate tradeoffs, compare alternatives, and promote efficient use of scarce resource. In this paper, we compare estimates of the health and visibility costs of air pollution derived from a meta-hedonic price analysis, with an estimate of health costs derived from a damage-function analysis and an estimate of the visibility cost derived from contingent valuation. We find that the meta-hedonic price analysis produces an estimate of the health cost that lies at the low end of the range of damage-function estimates. This is consistent with hypotheses that on the one hand, hedonic price analysis does not capture all of the health costs of air pollution (because individuals may not be fully informed about all of the health effects), and that on the other hand, the value of mortality used in the high-end damage function estimates is too high. The analysis of the visibility cost of air pollution derived from a meta-hedonic price analysis produces an estimate that is essentially identical to an independent estimate based on contingent valuation. This close agreement lends some credence to the estimates. We then apply the meta hedonic-price model to estimate the visibility cost per kilogram of motor vehicle emissions.
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Oct 31, 2011
Journal of transportation and statistics, Oct 1, 1998
With a detailed model of the cost of motor vehicle noise in the United States in 1990, we estimat... more With a detailed model of the cost of motor vehicle noise in the United States in 1990, we estimate that the external damage cost of this noise could range from as little as $100 million per year to as much as $40 billion per year, although we believe that the cost is not likely to exceed $5 billion (1991$). Our base-case estimate is $3 billion. The wide range is due primarily to uncertainty regarding the cost of noise per decibel above a threshold, the interest rate, the amount of noise attenuation due to ground cover and intervening structures, the threshold level below which damages are assumed to be zero, the density of housing alongside roads, average traffic speeds, and the cost of noise away from the home.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2008
eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California ... more eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 1990
Alternative vehicular fuels are proposed as a strategy to reduce urban air pollution. In this pap... more Alternative vehicular fuels are proposed as a strategy to reduce urban air pollution. In this paper, we analyze the emission impacts of electric vehicles in California for two target years, 1995 and 2010. We consider a range of assumptions regarding electricity consumption of electric vehicles, emission control technologies for power plants, and the mix of primary energy sources for electricity generation. We find that, relative to continued use of gasoline-powered vehicles, the use of electric vehicles would dramatically and unequivocally reduce carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Under most conditions, nitrogen oxide emissions would decrease moderately. Sulfur oxide and particulate emissions would increase or slightly decrease. Because other areas of the United States tend to use more coal in electricity generation and have less stringent emission controls on power plants, electric vehicles may have less emission reduction benefits outside California.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1993
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 1989
solution to growing petroleum imports and continuing urban air-pollution problems is the use of c... more solution to growing petroleum imports and continuing urban air-pollution problems is the use of clean-burning nonpetroleum fuels in motor vehicles. Methanol is widely viewed as the most attractive candidate for transportation fuel of the future. We examine how methanol gained this preeminent position by analyzing the historical interplay of economic interests, technical judgements, and ideology and then show that the preference for methanol is not the only conclusion to be drawn from the available evidence. An equally good choice may be natural gas.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 1, 2000
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 1996
for reviewing or discu,ssing parts of the whole social-cost series, although not necessarily ttus... more for reviewing or discu,ssing parts of the whole social-cost series, although not necessarily ttus particular report. Of course, we alone are responsible for the contents of this report. 11.6.5 Diesel Particulates (as a cause of lung cancer) .
In this chapter we report estimates of the external costs of transport in the United States. 1 Ge... more In this chapter we report estimates of the external costs of transport in the United States. 1 Generally, we cover road, rail, air, and water transport; passenger transport and freight transport; and congestion, accident, air pollution, climate change, noise, water pollution, and energy-security costs. However, we were not able to find estimates for all cost categories; in particular, there are fewer estimates for freight transport than for passenger transport, fewer estimates for water transport than for other modes, and fewer estimates of water pollution costs than of other costs. Table summarizes the quality of estimates in each category. In our review, negative externalities are the unaccounted for or unpriced costs of an action. This means that they are the result of individual decisions or actions, such as whether to drive or take a train, or freight something by ship or plane, and are related to the explicit prices and unaccounted-for costs of those choices.
University of California Transportation Center, Feb 1, 1989
Electric vehicles (EV) are periodically promoted as quiet, pollution-free alternatives gasoline v... more Electric vehicles (EV) are periodically promoted as quiet, pollution-free alternatives gasoline vehicles. They have failed each time because of inferior performance and high costs. In this paper, we conduct an updated and detailed evaluation of the performance, costs, environmental impacts, and recharging requirements of electric vehicles. We find that considerable progress has been made in EV battery and powertrain technology since the last surge of interest in EVs in the 1970s. If the development of high-performance batteries continues as expected, advanced electric vehicles could have an urban range of over 150 miles and acceleration comparable to that provided by internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). And if optimistic battery cost, life, and performance goals are achieved, massproduced EVs will have lower life-cycle costs than comparable conventional gasoline vehicles. EVs will reduce emissions per mile of HC, CO. and NO,, compared to stringently controlled ICEVs. By the turn of the century, electric passenger vehicles could be viable as second cars in multicar households and in other limited markets. If an economical form of fast recharging is developed, the potential role of EVs will be much larger. No longer does successful commercialization depend on technical breakthroughs.
The efficiency of energy using durable goods, from automobiles to home air conditioners, is not o... more The efficiency of energy using durable goods, from automobiles to home air conditioners, is not only a key determinant of economy-wide energy use but also of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate change and energy insecurity. Energy analysts have long noted that consumers appear to have high implicit discount rates for future fuel savings when choosing among energy using durable goods (Howarth and Sanstad, 1995). In modeling consumers choices of appliances, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has used discount rates of 30 percent for heating systems, 69 percent for choice of refrigerator and up to 111 percent for choice of water heater (U.S. DOE/EIA, 1996). Several explanations have been offered for this widespread phenomenon, including asymmetric information, bounded rationality and transaction costs. This chapter argues that uncertainty combined with loss aversion by consumers is sufficient to explain the failure to adopt cost effective energy efficiency improvements in the market for automotive fuel economy, although other market failures appear to be present as well. Understanding how markets for energy efficiency function is crucial to formulating effective energy policies (see Pizer, 2006). Fischer et al., (2004), for example, demonstrated that if consumers fully value the discounted present value of future fuel savings, fuelmore » economy standards are largely redundant and produce small welfare losses. However, if consumers value only the first three years of fuel savings, then fuel economy standards can significantly increase consumer welfare. The nature of any market failure that might be present in the market for energy efficiency would also affect the relative efficacy of energy taxes versus regulatory standards (CBO, 2003). If markets function efficiently, energy taxes would generally be more efficient than regulatory standards in increasing energy efficiency and reducing energy use. If markets are decidedly inefficient, standards would likely be more effective. The chapter explores the roles of uncertainty and loss-aversion in the market for automotive fuel economy. The focus is on the determination of the technical efficiency of the vehicle rather than consumers choices among vehicles. Over the past three decades, changes in the mix of vehicles sold has played little if any role in raising the average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles from 13 miles per gallon (mpg) in 1975 to 21 mpg today (Heavenrich, 2006). Over that same time period, average vehicle weight is up 2 percent, horsepower is up 60 percent, passenger car interior volume increased by 2 percent and the market share of light trucks grew by 31 percentage points. Historically, at least, increasing light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States has been a matter of manufacturers decisions to apply technology to increase the technical efficiency of cars and light trucks. Understanding how efficiently the market determines the technical fuel economy of new vehicles would seem to be critical to formulating effective policies to encourage future fuel economy improvement. The central issue is whether or not the market for fuel economy is economically efficient. Rubenstein (1998) lists the key assumptions of the rational economic decision model. The decision maker must have a clear picture of the choice problem he or she faces. He should be fully aware of the set of alternatives from which to choose and have the skill necessary to make complicated calculations needed to discover the optimal course of action. Finally, the decision maker should have the unlimited ability to calculate and be indifferent to alternatives and choice sets.« less
University of California Transportation Center, Dec 1, 1996
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Papers by Mark Anthony Delucchi