Papers by Mohammad Ali Kadivar
European Sociological Review, 2024
A body of research suggests that social media has afforded new opportunities for orchestrating mo... more A body of research suggests that social media has afforded new opportunities for orchestrating mobilization in autocracies. However, the mechanisms linking online coordination with offline mobilization are rarely demonstrated. We address this lacuna by exploring the impact of Farsi-language social media posts that called for protest on precise days and locations in Iran during the 2017 ‘Dey Protests’. To conduct our analysis, we match a dataset of posts with an original protest event catalogue. Our results show that if a district was the subject of a protest call, it was much more likely to witness higher levels of mobilization on the target date. This relationship was especially pronounced for calls that received more online engagement. The findings suggest that the digital commons can play a role akin to an analogue protest flyer: social media posts can inform broad audiences of the where and when of upcoming mobilization.
Comparative Political Studies, 2023
What factors shape different levels of pro-government mobilization in authoritarian regimes? The ... more What factors shape different levels of pro-government mobilization in authoritarian regimes? The existing literature has considered the threat of antiregime protests as the primary driver of pro-government mobilization. While we confirm this finding in the literature, we argue that the regime's organizational infrastructure significantly contributes to pro-regime mobilization. We identify places of worship, university campuses, and state bureaucracy as three main sites where states could extend their organizations for progovernment mobilization. Previous scholarship has considered universities and places of worship as free spaces for oppositional activities, but we argue
Contention in Global South It is very common for ordinary citizens to use contentious methods to ... more Contention in Global South It is very common for ordinary citizens to use contentious methods to make claims in the global south. In this course we investigate the shapers and movers of contention in global south. We particularly focus on the effect of political institutions, repression political economy, migration, ethnicity, organizations, and tactics of protestors. States are also actively involved in sponsoring moving in the global south, and revolutions also make an important class of contentious politics in the global south. These topics make the structuring categories for this graduate seminar. In this course we aim to learn about the main research questions asked about contention in global south and the literature developed to answer such questions. We also want to learn about different methodologies and sources of data used by different researchers, and form our own research proposals about contention in global south. Academic Integrity: You must maintain academic integrity through all exams, quizzes, and written assignments. Please read carefully the provisions here, make certain you understand and adhere to them, and ask me to clarify any questions you have. Course Requirements: Participation and Class assignments (20 points): Active participation in class discussion is a major requirement for this course. Everyone is also responsible for leading the discussion for two class sessions. Reading notes (30 points): For each reading, please note the research question, main argument, research design and data description, and the analysis. Your weekly reading notes should offer reflections on the readings including critical observations, identification of further questions to pursue, applicability of concepts and theories in the reading to other cases, and so forth. For each reading, please also include the full bibliography. Paper (50 points): In addition to the weekly reading notes and initiating discussion, the other major requirement is a research paper. Your paper can take one of three forms: (1) research proposal, (2) literature review, or (3) an empirical paper. Your paper will be developed through an initial plan (due Friday, February 17th), a rough draft on Friday April 7rd, and a final version due at the end of the 2 semester (May 2nd). I will provide a separate handout describing this assignment in greater detail. We will set aside time for everyone to discuss and get feedback on their papers throughout the semester.
Contention in Global South Contentious politics and social movements have exerted a significant i... more Contention in Global South Contentious politics and social movements have exerted a significant influence on politics and society across the globe over the last two centuries. What are the conditions under which people protest and sustain contentious collective action? When social movements emerge how do they evolve? What are the consequences and impacts of protest and social movements? These are some of the main questions that structure this course. In this course, we particularly adopt a global perspective with an emphasis on protest in global south, but also pay attention to major studies of social movements in the US. In this course we aim to learn about the main research questions asked about contention in global south and the literature developed to answer such questions. We also want to learn about different methodologies and sources of data used by different researchers, and form our own research proposals about contention in global south. Academic Integrity: You must maintain academic integrity through all exams, quizzes, and written assignments. Please read carefully the provisions here, make certain you understand and adhere to them, and ask me to clarify any questions you have. Course Requirements: Participation and Class assignments (20 points): Active participation in class discussion is a major requirement for this course. Everyone is also responsible for leading the discussion for two class sessions. Reading notes (30 points): For each reading, please note the research question, main argument, research design and data description, and the analysis. Your weekly reading notes should offer reflections on the readings including critical observations, identification of further questions to pursue, applicability of concepts and theories in the reading to other cases, and so forth. For each reading, please also include the full bibliography. Paper (50 points): In addition to the weekly reading notes and initiating discussion, the other major requirement is a research paper. Your paper can take one of three forms: (1) research proposal, (2) literature review, or (3) an empirical paper. Your paper will be developed through an initial plan (due Friday, February 17th), a rough draft on Friday April 7rd, and a final version due at the end of the 2 semester (May 2nd). I will provide a separate handout describing this assignment in greater detail. We will set aside time for everyone to discuss and get feedback on their papers throughout the semester.
In the span of a decade from 1977 to 1988, Iranians first participated in one of the major social... more In the span of a decade from 1977 to 1988, Iranians first participated in one of the major social revolutions of modern history and then after that the Iraqi invasion in 1981, Iran engaged in the longest interstate war of the 20 th century. Why did the revolution happen in Iran? What was the connection between war and revolution? What are the consequences of the revolution for politics, society, and economy in Iran, and how has Iranian politics and society has transformed since 1979 in Iran? These are some of the major questions that we try to answer through this course. Through case studies of Iranian revolution and then Iran-Iraq war, we also study main theories of revolution and war and the legacies of these most dramatic political events for postrevolutionary and postwar societies. We specifically examine the birth of the Islamic Republic out of the revolution and war and also major episodes of protest and social movements in the Islamic republic.
Sociology of Development, 2022
The scholarship about the consequences of social revolutions contends that social revolutions boo... more The scholarship about the consequences of social revolutions contends that social revolutions boost state capacity and strengthen the state’s developmental projects. Social justice and addressing the needs of ordinary citizens also were central themes in the discourse of the Iranian revolution and the Islamic Republic that emerged as the post-revolutionary regime with the fall of the monarchy in Iran. In this essay, I assess the performance of the post-revolutionary state in Iran according to different development indicators. Specifically, I compare the record of the post-revolutionary regime with the pre-revolutionary regime. My examination of various indicators relating to health, education, poverty, income inequality, and housing presents more of a mixed result than the overall improvement that previous scholarship anticipated and that the post-revolutionary regime had promised. Furthermore, the evidence points to declines in some important areas of development and welfare provision. Based on this analysis, I propose directions for future research about the developmental outcome of revolutions.
Middle East Report Online, 2021
Foreign Affairs
A wave of protest swept across Iran last week. The government had abruptly hiked gas prices [1] i... more A wave of protest swept across Iran last week. The government had abruptly hiked gas prices [1] in order to offset its budget deficit at a time of high inflation and negative economic growth. Angry protesters clashed with security forces, set government buildings and banks on fire, and blocked roads. The government responded with an iron fist [2], killing more than 200 protesters, arresting thousands, and shutting down the Internet across the country for about a week.
مشق فردا, 2019
«رویکرد نخبهگرایانه» به دموکراتیزه کردن حاکی از آن است که «رژیمهای دموکراتیکی که پایدار ماندها... more «رویکرد نخبهگرایانه» به دموکراتیزه کردن حاکی از آن است که «رژیمهای دموکراتیکی که پایدار ماندهاند بهندرت توسط کنشگران تودهای مردمی بنیانگذاری شدهاند» (هانتینگتون ١۹۸٤، ص. ٢١٢). مقاله پیش به آزمون تجربی این نگرش با استفاده از تجزیهوتحلیل آماریِ دموکراسیهای جدید در نیمقرن گذشته و همچنین یک مطالعه موردی میپردازد. بنا بر استدلال مقاله حاضر برخلاف رویکرد نخبهگرایانه، دموکراسیهای جدیدی که از بطن بسیج تودهای به وجود آمدهاند نسبت به دموکراسیهای جدیدی که در سکون خلق شدهاند، بخت بهتری برای بقا دارند. تحلیل آماری ١١٢ دموکراسی نوپا در ۸٠ کشور مختلف بر اساس دادههای اولیه نشان میدهد هر چه بسیج طولانیتر باشد، احتمال بقای دموکراسی نیز بیشتر خواهد بود. مقاله حاضر از مطالعه موردی آفریقای جنوبی برای بررسی مکانیزم ها استفاده میکند. از نظر نگارنده قیامهای غیرمسلحانه طولانی، بادوامترین دموکراسیهای جدید را خلق کردهاند. عمدتا به این دلیل که آنها مجبور به ایجاد یک ساختار سازمانی هستند که یک کادر رهبری را برای رژیم جدید فراهم میآورد، ارتباطات بین دولت و جامعه را تقویت میکند، و مهار قدرت دولت پس از انتقال را افزایش میدهد.
Social Forces
Over the last several decades, dozens of dictatorships have become democracies. Yet while each ha... more Over the last several decades, dozens of dictatorships have become democracies. Yet while each has held free and fair elections, they have varied in the extent to which their citizens realize the ideal of self-rule. Why do some democracies distribute power to citizens while other democracies withhold it? Existing research is suggestive, but its implications are ambiguous. Cross-national studies have focused on democracy's formal dimensions, while work on substantive democracy is case-based. We find that one of the most consistent and powerful explanations of substantive democratization is the length of unarmed pro-democratic mobilization prior to a transition. Through a case study of Brazil, we illustrate that these movements matter in three ways: first, because practices of self-organizing model and enable democratic reforms; second, because movement veterans use state office to deepen democracy; and third, because long movements yield civil societies with the capacity to demand the continuous deepening of democracy.
American Sociological Review, 2018
The “elitist approach” to democratization contends that “democratic regimes that last have seldom... more The “elitist approach” to democratization contends that “democratic regimes that last have seldom, if ever, been instituted by mass popular actors” (Huntington 1984:212). This article subjects this observation to empirical scrutiny using statistical analyses of new democracies over the past half-century and a case study. Contrary to the elitist approach, I argue that new democracies growing out of mass mobilization are more likely to survive than are new democracies that were born amid quiescence. Survival analysis of 112 young democracies in 80 different countries based on original data shows that the longer the mobilization, the more likely the ensuing democracy is to survive. I use a case study of South Africa to investigate the mechanisms. I argue that sustained unarmed uprisings have generated the longest-lasting new democracies—largely because they are forced to develop an organizational structure, which provides a leadership cadre for the new regime, forges links between the government and society, and strengthens checks on the power of the post-transition government.
Mobilization: An International Journal, 2017
Does pre-election protest have an effect on the outcomes of authoritarian elections? Electoral au... more Does pre-election protest have an effect on the outcomes of authoritarian elections? Electoral authoritarian regimes use elections to consolidate their power and claim democratic legitimacy. Nonetheless, on some occasions authoritarian incumbents lose elections despite their advantages and a democratic breakthrough is achieved. I propose that pre-election protest contributes to such election results. Existing scholarship focuses primarily on the effectiveness of post-election upheavals, but the effects of pre-election protest are still theoretically and empirically understudied. This paper proposes a theory for why pre-election contention has an independent effect on incumbent defeat of authoritarian regimes and democratization. I present empirical support for the association between pre-election protest activities, incumbent defeat, and democratization using data from 190 elections across 65 countries with non-democratic regimes. The findings of this analysis have important implications for studies of social movements, authoritarian politics, and democratization.
Social Forces, 2016
Does contentious collective action matter? Whereas most social movement literature has addressed ... more Does contentious collective action matter? Whereas most social movement literature has addressed this question in the US context for policy change outcomes, this paper takes a different approach by bringing the question to a global context and examines democratization as a structural outcome. Accordingly, we test several hypotheses about the ephemeral, positive, and negative influences of contentious collective action on the democratization process in a given country, as well as the cross-border effect of the contention. To go beyond the limitations of previous studies, this paper uses a monthly time-series, cross-national model to examine potential liberalizing or deliberalizing effects of protest activities. Using data from 103 non-democratic countries from 1990 to 2004, we find that protests and riots increase the probability that a country will liberalize in a given month. We find that while contentious events in other countries do not directly increase the risk of liberalization, external contentious events, especially those that lead to political liberalization, increase the count of contentious events, thus indirectly boosting liberalization. We find no evidence that protest significantly increases the chances of deliberalization. Together, our findings show a key role for non-elite political actors to influence political liberalization.
گفتگو, Aug 2015
چطور میتوان شکلگیری و فروپاشی ائتلافات در جنبشهای اجتماعی را توضیح داد؟ رهیافت غالب در مطالعه ... more چطور میتوان شکلگیری و فروپاشی ائتلافات در جنبشهای اجتماعی را توضیح داد؟ رهیافت غالب در مطالعه جنبشهای اجتماعی بر نقش تهدیدها و فرصتهای سیاسی در تسهیل یا تضعیف ائتلاف بین گروههای اپوزیسیون تاکید میکند. مدعای این مقاله آن است که، نزدیک شدن یا دورشدن تصورات چالشگران میانجی تاثیر فرصتهای سیاسی بر تغییرات در ائتلافهاست. در حالی که مطالعات پیشین تصور کنشگران از محیط را به صورت یکدست مفهومپردازی میکردند، من سه بعد این مفهوم را از یکدیگر متمایز میکنم: خوشبینی به نخبگان دولت، خوشبینی به نهادهای دولت، و خوشبینی به عمل جمعی تنازعی. جنبش اصلاحات ایران ۱۳۷۶-۱۳۸۴ نمونه نسبتا ایدهآلی برای بررسی تصورات و ائتلافهاست، چراکه مجموعه متنوعی از گروههای مخالف را دربرمیگیرد که در اوج و افول جنبش ائتلافاتی بینشان شکل گرفت و از بین رفت. این مقاله دگرگونی تصورات از فرصتها را بین این گروهها بررسی میکند و تاثیر این تصورات بر ائتلافها را مستقل از سرکوب حکومتی و اهداف عالیه گروهها مستند میسازد.
Middle East Report, Feb 20, 2014
American Sociological Review, Oct 31, 2013
What accounts for the formation and disintegration of social movement alliances? The dominant app... more What accounts for the formation and disintegration of social movement alliances? The dominant approach in social movement studies stresses the role of political opportunities and threats in facilitating or undermining alliances between oppositional groups. This article argues, by contrast, that the convergence and divergence of contenders' perceptions mediate between political opportunities and shifting alliances. Whereas previous studies conceptualize perceptions as global assessments of actors' environments, I disaggregate three dimensions of the concept: optimism about state elites, optimism about state institutions, and optimism about contentious collective action. The Iranian Reform Movement of 1997 to 2005 offers a nearly ideal case for the study of perceptions and alliances, because it encompasses a variety of opposition groups whose alliances formed and disintegrated over the course of the movement's rise and decline. This article examines shifting perceptions of opportunity among these groups and documents how these perceptions affected alliances, independent of state repression and groups' ultimate goals.
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Papers by Mohammad Ali Kadivar
The participants are Peyman Jafari, Azam Khatam, Ali Kadivar, Saira Rafiee, and Zep Kalb.