Papers by Stelios Giannoulakis
The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policies: A Cross-Country Analysis Using an Integrated Micro-Macro Simulation Model
Social Science Research Network, 2023
Journal of Economic Studies, Jun 28, 2021
This study contributes to the literature of expectation formation mechanisms by bringing new evid... more This study contributes to the literature of expectation formation mechanisms by bringing new evidence on how non-financial corporations shape their expectations on the availability of external finance. We link consecutive surveys from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises to investigate which expectation formation mechanism governs Eurozone firms regarding their expectations on the availability of external finance. In line with the past literature, we demonstrate that the Rational Expectations hypothesis is rejected by the data and we find evidence in favor of the Adaptive Expectation mechanism.
Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece
International Journal of Finance & Economics, Feb 1, 2021
How do firm‐specific shocks contribute to large economic downturns associated with financial cris... more How do firm‐specific shocks contribute to large economic downturns associated with financial crises? Using a large and representative dataset on Greek firms covering all sectors of the economy over the period 2000–2014, we find that the contribution of firm‐specific shocks to the volatility of aggregate sales growth increased substantially (about 30%) during the Greek financial crisis and dominated the contribution of macro‐economic and sectoral shocks. We also find that, throughout the sample period, inter‐firm linkages are two and a half times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations. However, during the financial crisis, the Greek economy became more granular, and the direct effect of firm‐specific shocks had increased importance in driving aggregate volatility.
Finance or Demand: What drives the Responses of Young and Small Firms to Financial Crises?
Social Science Research Network, 2022
Firm dynamics by age and size classes and the choice of size measure
Oxford Economic Papers-new Series, Dec 24, 2021
The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs depending on whether the... more The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs depending on whether the size is measured by sales or employment. Using a large dataset of Greek firms over the period 1999–2014, we find the following patterns. Controlling for age, there is a strong negative growth–size relationship when measuring size with sales, but a strong positive one when measuring size with employment. Controlling for size, there is a positive monotonic survival–age relationship when measuring size with sales, whereas survival is negatively related with age for young firms when we measure size with employment. Our results indicate that public policies aimed at supporting SMEs should be specialized to the employment scale and the sales scale of enterprises, separately.
Research in International Business and Finance, Dec 1, 2021
We link senior banks loan officers' responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards... more We link senior banks loan officers' responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 global financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query "financial crisis") contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers' credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.
European Banks’ Profitability and Sentimental Cycle
SSRN Electronic Journal
European Banks’ Profitability and Sentimental Cycle
Review of Behavioral Economics
Journal of Economic Studies
PurposeThis study investigates which expectation formation mechanism governs Eurozone firms regar... more PurposeThis study investigates which expectation formation mechanism governs Eurozone firms regarding their expectations on external finance availability.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, we link consecutive surveys from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises to bring new evidence on how non-financial corporations shape their expectations on external finance availability.FindingsIn line with the past literature, we demonstrate that the data reject the Rational Expectations hypothesis, and we find evidence in favor of the Adaptive Expectation mechanism.Originality/valueThis is the first study studying firms' expectations of external finance availability, implementing survey data of firms' expectations from the SAFE database on a country level. The formation of firm expectations is vital in directing policymakers in designing appropriate monetary policies, as both the employment and inflation targets of central banks around the world are highly dependent on...
Finance or Demand: What drives the Responses of Young and Small Firms to Financial Crises?
SSRN Electronic Journal
In this paper we study optimal central bank interest rate policy, and compare it to interest rate... more In this paper we study optimal central bank interest rate policy, and compare it to interest rate rules, such as the Wicksell (1898), Fisher (1919) and Taylor (1993) rules, in an imperfectly competitive DSGE model of aggregate fluctuations. We demonstrate that in versions of the model with full price and wage adjustment, or staggered pricing, the optimal policy rule is the Fisher rule of absolute inflation stabilization. We also analyze a version of the model with exogenous inflation shocks, in which the ”divine coincidence” does not apply. In this case, the optimal monetary policy rule takes the form of a Taylor rule, the parameters of which depend on the structural and policy parameters of the model.
The purpose of this article is to carefully lay out the internal monetary and fiscal transmission... more The purpose of this article is to carefully lay out the internal monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms in the context of a New Keynesian model, with a particular focus on the role of capital - the most vital ingredient in the transition from the basic framework to the medium - scale DSGE models. The key concept of this paper is the form of the monetary policy: we assume a two-channel monetary policy, i.e. it is conducted through a rule for money supply and a Taylor-type rule for interest rates, in order to keep up with the ECB and Fed’s policies. We also adopt a simple fiscal policy rule for public consumption to examine the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. Finally, in order to capture the crisis effects we introduce exogenous shocks to both monetary and fiscal policy rules.
Firm dynamics by age and size classes and the choice of size measure
Oxford Economic Papers, 2021
The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs depending on whether the... more The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs depending on whether the size is measured by sales or employment. Using a large dataset of Greek firms over the period 1999–2014, we find the following patterns. Controlling for age, there is a strong negative growth–size relationship when measuring size with sales, but a strong positive one when measuring size with employment. Controlling for size, there is a positive monotonic survival–age relationship when measuring size with sales, whereas survival is negatively related with age for young firms when we measure size with employment. Our results indicate that public policies aimed at supporting SMEs should be specialized to the employment scale and the sales scale of enterprises, separately.
Uncertainty, firm entry, and investment dynamics
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2021
Previous macro‐ and micro‐level evidence indicate that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty ... more Previous macro‐ and micro‐level evidence indicate that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty have an important effect on investment, both directly and indirectly through financial market frictions. The objective of this paper was to explore, beyond the two traditional and complementary channels, a new one: firm entry. By utilizing a novel and large dataset on Greek firms covering the entire economy over the period 2000–2014 and employing a panel‐VAR methodology, we examine and evaluate the impact of shocks to the number of startups, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and financial conditions on the investment growth at the industry level. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, a shock to the number of new firms has significant effects on investment that persist for many years. Second, although all the three variables are important drivers of investment growth dynamics, uncertainty has the largest impact (explaining about the 15% of the variability of investment growth), firm ...
Research in International Business and Finance, 2021
We link senior banks loan officers' responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards... more We link senior banks loan officers' responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 global financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query "financial crisis") contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers' credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
How do firm-specific shocks contribute to large economic downturns associated with financial cris... more How do firm-specific shocks contribute to large economic downturns associated with financial crises? Using a large and representative dataset on Greek firms covering all sectors of the economy over the period 2000-2014, we find that the contribution of firm-specific shocks to the volatility of aggregate sales growth increased substantially (about 30%) during the Greek financial crisis and dominated the contribution of macroeconomic and sectoral shocks. We also find that, throughout the sample period, inter-firm linkages are two and a half times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations. However, during the financial crisis, the Greek economy became more granular and the direct effect of firm-specific shocks had increased importance in driving aggregate volatility.
The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policies: A Cross-Country Analysis Using an Integrated Micro-Macro Simulation Model
SSRN Electronic Journal
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Papers by Stelios Giannoulakis