A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period;... more A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period; 1971-2000) is developed for Turkey. Heights (one of terrain variables) and lapse rate value (changing rate of temperature with height) are used as predictors of temperatures on 1km resolution of grid points, using a lapse rate-based approach. In this study, mean annual temperature values measured at 228 meteorological stations of Turkish State Meteorological Service over Turkey are used for visualization and interpolation to reveal spatial distribution of mean annual temperature values. Mean annual temperatures have been obtained from period of 1971-2000 long term temperature data sets. Elevation data have been obtained from digital elevation models (DEM) with the help of GIS. There have been studied with temperature data of in and around Uludağ stations to determine value of lapse rate. Lapse rate have been found average 5°CKm-1 with regression coefficient (R2) 0.97. Temperature data f...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2019 is a low-res... more Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2019 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022
İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla berab... more İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla beraber tarım ürünleri üzerindeki etkisi de önemli derecede hissedilmektedir. Bu nedenle iklim değişikliğinin ve jeomorfolojik yapının kayısı üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada, dünya kayısı üretiminin en yoğun olarak yapıldığı Malatya ili seçilmiştir. Araştırmada, arazi gözlemleri, anket çalışması ile birtakım meteorolojik ve tarımsal verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Fenolojik dönemin başlangıçlarını belirlemek için büyüme sezonu başlangıcını tayin eden 6 ardışık gün metodu kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ve don parametrelerinde görülen değişimler için Mann Kendall sıralı istatistik metodu ile doğrusal trend analizi yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Anket sonuçlarına göre özellikle 2000 yılından sonra verimde bir düşüş ve kayısıya zarar veren olaylarda bir artış olduğu görülmüştür. 1980-2020 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde yıllık sıcaklık ortalamalarında doğrusal trend analizine göre toplam 2,4 ℃ ve aynı dönemin ortalama sıcaklığına göre 1.3 ℃ 'lik bir artış olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte kayısı fenolojik safhasının başlamasında 20.2 günlük bir erkene kayma olduğu ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Öte yandan ilkbahar geç donlarının sıklık ve sürekliliklerinde bir artış olduğu ve bu hadiselerinin kayısı rekolteleri üzerindeki etkisinin önemli olduğu görülmüştür. Bunun haricinde iklimde meydana gelen ısınma, yüksek plato sahalarında susuz kayısı yetiştiriciliğinin ortaya çıkmasına imkân sağlamıştır. Sonuç olarak iklimde görülen değişimin, kayısı ürününün rekoltesi ve coğrafi dağılışı üzerinde görülen birtakım etkileri farklı açılardan ortaya konulmuştur.
Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022
Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyle... more Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyles and physical characteristics of all living things in the Biosphere. Sea creatures are a part of the biosphere. Climate change is an important threat not only to our entire planet but also to oceans, seas and sea creatures. Turkey is surrounded by seas with different ecology and climate, namely the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Aquaculture and fishing are important sources of income in Turkey's seas and freshwaters. In addition, transportation, tourism, sports, etc. activities are socioeconomic activities carried out in its seas and waters. The increase in temperature in the seas of Turkey, especially in the Mediterranean, transforms the seas into tropical seas and invader species migrate to the region from tropical seas. In this study, the temperature increase in Turkish seas will be tried to be revealed. In the light of this change, possible changes in Turkish seas and the effects of climate change on seas and fishery products will be discussed. The data obtained from the measurements of the marine meteorology observation systems of the Turkish State Meteorological Service between the years 1970-2021 were analyzed for the Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Marmara and Black Sea. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the seas surrounding Turkey have increased by about 0.4-1.4 °C in the last two decades, and it has been determined that the maximum increases are between about 2.3-3.5 °C in this period. According to Mann-Kendall Slope Analysis, the increases in DSSs are at a significant level α: 0.001. The highest increase in SSTs was detected in the Black Sea.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low... more Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2018 is a low-res... more Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2018 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional ... more For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across glo...
In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall w... more In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall within the city and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools are used to make digital layer from products of satellite and Radar which are today's commonly used monitoring tools in Remote Sensing Method (RSM). Secondarily; it is intended to determine the relationship between surface rainfall measurements and remote sensing measurements which are obtained from satellite and radar. Finally; it is aimed to determine how urbanization is affected the distribution of rainfall over the city by examining these relationships on city base. It is proposed that results of this study can be primarily an input for city planners for correctly improving and planning of cities and also for reduction-prevention studies against to natural disasters which are related to the climate and especially depending on rainfall. Furthermore, it can be provided a base within the scope of coping studies which are made with the trilogy of prevention, mitigation and adaptation against to climate change that has become a problem in our century. For the study, precipitation events which are occurred in Ankara are examined on June 6 in the year 2010. For the date of June 6 in 2010, output of numerical prediction models, surface observations and Radar PPI data have been obtained and ECMWF model outputs, Radar PPI data and surface observations have been mapped in the GIS and analyzed. In the sample analysis it is observed that rainfall zones have moved according to the movement of the frontal system and they are not concentrated especially in the east parts of Ankara. In sampling dates, it is interesting to consider that the dust transportation along with frontal systems which are brings rainfall is observed in Atmospheric Dust Forecasting System maps. It is thought that the systems which are cause precipitation, topographical structure of the city and dust transportation from the Saharan Desert have been more effective in the formation of precipitation. GIS is important systems to prepare risk and mitigation maps for extreme events. Furthermore GIS can use to monitoring, preventive precaution and rescue planning in Disaster and Emergency Management Centre (DEMC) during a disaster situation. GIS can use different layer such as risk, actual situation, rod, hospital, etc. at same time. GIS can search and show possible best solution for DEMC studies. The issues, to use RADAR and Meteorological Models data in GIS is format of data that these data can not use directly in GIS systems. Due to this RADAR and models data can distribute to user standard format such as NetCDF or GIS readable format.
Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as... more Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as well as secondary equipment's such as Global Positioning System GPS/ Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). To determine the accurate data in GNSS, it is need to know Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) which cause to tropospheric zenith delay. Vice versa IWV could be calculate from zenith travel time delays from GPS signals data with atmospheric pressure and temperature of GPS site. IWV which is produced from radiosonde data generally use as reference to determine the accuracy of GPS data. Nowadays GNSS meteorology is very familiar in Geomatics engineering. Perceptible Water Vapour (PWV) or Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) or Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) are different use in different meteorological systems and they are calculate from meteorological satellite data, radar data and radiosonde data. Spatial and temporal fluctuatings of water vapour content in the lower atmosphere cause time delays in signals propagating from space to targets on the ground. Different measurement methods exist to estimate water vapour. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides continuous water vapour estimates. In this study, GNSS derived water vapour estimates are compared to radiosonde and radar observations. Statistical analysis of the differences between three data sets, GNSS, radar and radiosonde are summarized. In this study, it is intended to investigate relation between GNSS Ankara station's IWV, Ankara radiosonde station's IWV and Ankara Radar's VIL data. For this purpose, two term which are June 1 to 10 in 2010 and May 15 to 30 in 2015 are selected. These two term are consist of both dry and wet days. Data are obtained from NASA The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) for GNSS IWV data, NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for radiosonde IWV data and TSMS for radar VIL data. Radar make observation with its beam. Beam path is not goes strait ahead in atmosphere. It is goes like as curve which is suit to the world's roundness and when it crush to water droplet it turns back to RADAR antenna. The result of this, firstly if the droplet size is too small or moisture in atmosphere is in a vapour form such as in clear air RADAR may not be observed it. Secondly, due to RADAR beam shape is like curve it can not measure all layer moisture. So RADAR VIL values could not representative troposphere layer total moisture. To free from errors radiosonde values must be use with measurement points coordinates. If RADAR's value or meteorological satellite values use for comparing GNSS IWV values it is need to make a private study for this purpose. Stations geographic position IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) COMPARISON OF WATER VAPOUR ESTIMATES IN ANKARA, TURKEY IRD.P21 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for June 1 to 10 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for May 15 to 30 IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) CONCLUSION Comparing results are relation of GNSS and Radiosonde is quite good esp. during to precipitation and also Radar values get to closer to GNSS and Radiosonde during to precipitation. During to precipitation sky is covered by clouds and the water vapour distribute generally uniform in atmosphere esp. in stratiform type weather conditions. Causes of errors should be as follows; Satellite signal which come from satellite to directly GNSS station pass throughout troposphere and its effected by troposphere humidity as a result GNSS IWV representative of troposphere layer water vapour. GNSS observations are stationary observations. When radiosonde balloon is released it start to cruise freely in atmosphere and it's cruising depends on to winds in atmosphere and it can be go far away up to 300km in any directions. During to cruise while getting height it goes far away and also it collects data on its way. So it is naturally collect different values from stationary station.
Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerde... more Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerdendir. Bu da yeryuzunde yetisen dogal ve kultur bitkilerinin dagilisini ve kalitesini etkilemektedir. Gunumuzde yapilan bircok calisma iklimde bir degisimin oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu degisim bircok tarimsal urunde oldugu gibi hashas uretiminde de hic suphesiz etkili olacaktir. Hashas ( Papaver somniferum L.) insanlik tarihinde en fazla bilinen, tibbi ve yag amacli kullanilan onemli bir endustri bitkisidir. Dunya’da, hashas uretimi ve afyon alkaloidi ticareti bakimindan soz sahibi olan Turkiye’nin hashas uretiminin iklim degisikliklerinden gelecekte nasil etkilenecegi bu calismada tespit edilmeye calisilmistir. Bu amacla; Iklim parametrelerinden sicaklik ve yagis (1961-2013 doneminden derlenen) verileri kullanilmistir. Hashasin; sicaklik, yagis ve topografyaya bagli olarak yetisebilecegi muhtemel alanlar gosterilmistir. Sicaklik ve yagis topografya ile modellenmis; sicaklik icin 7-16°C ...
A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future st... more A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world". The name "representative concentration pathways-RCP's" are referred to as pathways in order to emphasize that their primary purpose is to provide time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gasses (GHGs) concentrations. In this study, it is intended to reveal the possibilities of future climate change for Turkey and its surrounding region. HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M Global Circulation Models' RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios outputs were used in the study. Temperature and precipitation projections were produced from these outputs, based on domain with 20 km resolution, covering period between 2016 and 2099 and using regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 and with dynamic downscaling method. According to the models results, it is expected that an increase between 1°C and 6°C in mean temperatures of Turkey. In generally precipitation amount shows a decreasing except winter season. Although there is no regular decreasing or increasing trend throughout projection period, it attracts more attention irregularity of precipitation regime.
Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, ol... more Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, olması muhtemel alternatif durumların tanımlanmasıdır. Bunun yanında, emisyon senaryoları, iklim değişikliği çalışmalarının en önemli bileşenlerinden birini teşkil etmektedir. İklim geniş bölgelerde çok uzun zaman içinde gerçekleşen ortalama hava koşullarıdır. İklim değişikliği ise "nedeni ne olursa olsun iklimin ortalama durumunda veya değişkenliğinde onlarca yıl ya da daha uzun süre boyunca gerçekleşen değişiklikler" biçiminde tanımlanmaktadır. IPCC raporlarında da belirtildiği üzere Türkiye, iklim değişikliğine karşı en hassas bölgelerden biri olan Doğu Akdeniz havzasında yer almaktadır. İklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirmek, sektörel bazda iklim değişikliğine uyum ve mücadele faaliyetlerini desteklemek amacıyla havza, bölge ve il düzeyinde sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları geliştirilmiştir.
A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period;... more A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period; 1971-2000) is developed for Turkey. Heights (one of terrain variables) and lapse rate value (changing rate of temperature with height) are used as predictors of temperatures on 1km resolution of grid points, using a lapse rate-based approach. In this study, mean annual temperature values measured at 228 meteorological stations of Turkish State Meteorological Service over Turkey are used for visualization and interpolation to reveal spatial distribution of mean annual temperature values. Mean annual temperatures have been obtained from period of 1971-2000 long term temperature data sets. Elevation data have been obtained from digital elevation models (DEM) with the help of GIS. There have been studied with temperature data of in and around Uludağ stations to determine value of lapse rate. Lapse rate have been found average 5°CKm-1 with regression coefficient (R2) 0.97. Temperature data f...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2019 is a low-res... more Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2019 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022
İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla berab... more İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla beraber tarım ürünleri üzerindeki etkisi de önemli derecede hissedilmektedir. Bu nedenle iklim değişikliğinin ve jeomorfolojik yapının kayısı üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada, dünya kayısı üretiminin en yoğun olarak yapıldığı Malatya ili seçilmiştir. Araştırmada, arazi gözlemleri, anket çalışması ile birtakım meteorolojik ve tarımsal verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Fenolojik dönemin başlangıçlarını belirlemek için büyüme sezonu başlangıcını tayin eden 6 ardışık gün metodu kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ve don parametrelerinde görülen değişimler için Mann Kendall sıralı istatistik metodu ile doğrusal trend analizi yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Anket sonuçlarına göre özellikle 2000 yılından sonra verimde bir düşüş ve kayısıya zarar veren olaylarda bir artış olduğu görülmüştür. 1980-2020 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde yıllık sıcaklık ortalamalarında doğrusal trend analizine göre toplam 2,4 ℃ ve aynı dönemin ortalama sıcaklığına göre 1.3 ℃ 'lik bir artış olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte kayısı fenolojik safhasının başlamasında 20.2 günlük bir erkene kayma olduğu ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Öte yandan ilkbahar geç donlarının sıklık ve sürekliliklerinde bir artış olduğu ve bu hadiselerinin kayısı rekolteleri üzerindeki etkisinin önemli olduğu görülmüştür. Bunun haricinde iklimde meydana gelen ısınma, yüksek plato sahalarında susuz kayısı yetiştiriciliğinin ortaya çıkmasına imkân sağlamıştır. Sonuç olarak iklimde görülen değişimin, kayısı ürününün rekoltesi ve coğrafi dağılışı üzerinde görülen birtakım etkileri farklı açılardan ortaya konulmuştur.
Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022
Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyle... more Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyles and physical characteristics of all living things in the Biosphere. Sea creatures are a part of the biosphere. Climate change is an important threat not only to our entire planet but also to oceans, seas and sea creatures. Turkey is surrounded by seas with different ecology and climate, namely the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Aquaculture and fishing are important sources of income in Turkey's seas and freshwaters. In addition, transportation, tourism, sports, etc. activities are socioeconomic activities carried out in its seas and waters. The increase in temperature in the seas of Turkey, especially in the Mediterranean, transforms the seas into tropical seas and invader species migrate to the region from tropical seas. In this study, the temperature increase in Turkish seas will be tried to be revealed. In the light of this change, possible changes in Turkish seas and the effects of climate change on seas and fishery products will be discussed. The data obtained from the measurements of the marine meteorology observation systems of the Turkish State Meteorological Service between the years 1970-2021 were analyzed for the Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Marmara and Black Sea. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the seas surrounding Turkey have increased by about 0.4-1.4 °C in the last two decades, and it has been determined that the maximum increases are between about 2.3-3.5 °C in this period. According to Mann-Kendall Slope Analysis, the increases in DSSs are at a significant level α: 0.001. The highest increase in SSTs was detected in the Black Sea.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low... more Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2018 is a low-res... more Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2018 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional ... more For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across glo...
In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall w... more In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall within the city and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools are used to make digital layer from products of satellite and Radar which are today's commonly used monitoring tools in Remote Sensing Method (RSM). Secondarily; it is intended to determine the relationship between surface rainfall measurements and remote sensing measurements which are obtained from satellite and radar. Finally; it is aimed to determine how urbanization is affected the distribution of rainfall over the city by examining these relationships on city base. It is proposed that results of this study can be primarily an input for city planners for correctly improving and planning of cities and also for reduction-prevention studies against to natural disasters which are related to the climate and especially depending on rainfall. Furthermore, it can be provided a base within the scope of coping studies which are made with the trilogy of prevention, mitigation and adaptation against to climate change that has become a problem in our century. For the study, precipitation events which are occurred in Ankara are examined on June 6 in the year 2010. For the date of June 6 in 2010, output of numerical prediction models, surface observations and Radar PPI data have been obtained and ECMWF model outputs, Radar PPI data and surface observations have been mapped in the GIS and analyzed. In the sample analysis it is observed that rainfall zones have moved according to the movement of the frontal system and they are not concentrated especially in the east parts of Ankara. In sampling dates, it is interesting to consider that the dust transportation along with frontal systems which are brings rainfall is observed in Atmospheric Dust Forecasting System maps. It is thought that the systems which are cause precipitation, topographical structure of the city and dust transportation from the Saharan Desert have been more effective in the formation of precipitation. GIS is important systems to prepare risk and mitigation maps for extreme events. Furthermore GIS can use to monitoring, preventive precaution and rescue planning in Disaster and Emergency Management Centre (DEMC) during a disaster situation. GIS can use different layer such as risk, actual situation, rod, hospital, etc. at same time. GIS can search and show possible best solution for DEMC studies. The issues, to use RADAR and Meteorological Models data in GIS is format of data that these data can not use directly in GIS systems. Due to this RADAR and models data can distribute to user standard format such as NetCDF or GIS readable format.
Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as... more Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as well as secondary equipment's such as Global Positioning System GPS/ Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). To determine the accurate data in GNSS, it is need to know Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) which cause to tropospheric zenith delay. Vice versa IWV could be calculate from zenith travel time delays from GPS signals data with atmospheric pressure and temperature of GPS site. IWV which is produced from radiosonde data generally use as reference to determine the accuracy of GPS data. Nowadays GNSS meteorology is very familiar in Geomatics engineering. Perceptible Water Vapour (PWV) or Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) or Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) are different use in different meteorological systems and they are calculate from meteorological satellite data, radar data and radiosonde data. Spatial and temporal fluctuatings of water vapour content in the lower atmosphere cause time delays in signals propagating from space to targets on the ground. Different measurement methods exist to estimate water vapour. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides continuous water vapour estimates. In this study, GNSS derived water vapour estimates are compared to radiosonde and radar observations. Statistical analysis of the differences between three data sets, GNSS, radar and radiosonde are summarized. In this study, it is intended to investigate relation between GNSS Ankara station's IWV, Ankara radiosonde station's IWV and Ankara Radar's VIL data. For this purpose, two term which are June 1 to 10 in 2010 and May 15 to 30 in 2015 are selected. These two term are consist of both dry and wet days. Data are obtained from NASA The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) for GNSS IWV data, NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for radiosonde IWV data and TSMS for radar VIL data. Radar make observation with its beam. Beam path is not goes strait ahead in atmosphere. It is goes like as curve which is suit to the world's roundness and when it crush to water droplet it turns back to RADAR antenna. The result of this, firstly if the droplet size is too small or moisture in atmosphere is in a vapour form such as in clear air RADAR may not be observed it. Secondly, due to RADAR beam shape is like curve it can not measure all layer moisture. So RADAR VIL values could not representative troposphere layer total moisture. To free from errors radiosonde values must be use with measurement points coordinates. If RADAR's value or meteorological satellite values use for comparing GNSS IWV values it is need to make a private study for this purpose. Stations geographic position IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) COMPARISON OF WATER VAPOUR ESTIMATES IN ANKARA, TURKEY IRD.P21 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for June 1 to 10 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for May 15 to 30 IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) CONCLUSION Comparing results are relation of GNSS and Radiosonde is quite good esp. during to precipitation and also Radar values get to closer to GNSS and Radiosonde during to precipitation. During to precipitation sky is covered by clouds and the water vapour distribute generally uniform in atmosphere esp. in stratiform type weather conditions. Causes of errors should be as follows; Satellite signal which come from satellite to directly GNSS station pass throughout troposphere and its effected by troposphere humidity as a result GNSS IWV representative of troposphere layer water vapour. GNSS observations are stationary observations. When radiosonde balloon is released it start to cruise freely in atmosphere and it's cruising depends on to winds in atmosphere and it can be go far away up to 300km in any directions. During to cruise while getting height it goes far away and also it collects data on its way. So it is naturally collect different values from stationary station.
Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerde... more Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerdendir. Bu da yeryuzunde yetisen dogal ve kultur bitkilerinin dagilisini ve kalitesini etkilemektedir. Gunumuzde yapilan bircok calisma iklimde bir degisimin oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu degisim bircok tarimsal urunde oldugu gibi hashas uretiminde de hic suphesiz etkili olacaktir. Hashas ( Papaver somniferum L.) insanlik tarihinde en fazla bilinen, tibbi ve yag amacli kullanilan onemli bir endustri bitkisidir. Dunya’da, hashas uretimi ve afyon alkaloidi ticareti bakimindan soz sahibi olan Turkiye’nin hashas uretiminin iklim degisikliklerinden gelecekte nasil etkilenecegi bu calismada tespit edilmeye calisilmistir. Bu amacla; Iklim parametrelerinden sicaklik ve yagis (1961-2013 doneminden derlenen) verileri kullanilmistir. Hashasin; sicaklik, yagis ve topografyaya bagli olarak yetisebilecegi muhtemel alanlar gosterilmistir. Sicaklik ve yagis topografya ile modellenmis; sicaklik icin 7-16°C ...
A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future st... more A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world". The name "representative concentration pathways-RCP's" are referred to as pathways in order to emphasize that their primary purpose is to provide time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gasses (GHGs) concentrations. In this study, it is intended to reveal the possibilities of future climate change for Turkey and its surrounding region. HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M Global Circulation Models' RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios outputs were used in the study. Temperature and precipitation projections were produced from these outputs, based on domain with 20 km resolution, covering period between 2016 and 2099 and using regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 and with dynamic downscaling method. According to the models results, it is expected that an increase between 1°C and 6°C in mean temperatures of Turkey. In generally precipitation amount shows a decreasing except winter season. Although there is no regular decreasing or increasing trend throughout projection period, it attracts more attention irregularity of precipitation regime.
Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, ol... more Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, olması muhtemel alternatif durumların tanımlanmasıdır. Bunun yanında, emisyon senaryoları, iklim değişikliği çalışmalarının en önemli bileşenlerinden birini teşkil etmektedir. İklim geniş bölgelerde çok uzun zaman içinde gerçekleşen ortalama hava koşullarıdır. İklim değişikliği ise "nedeni ne olursa olsun iklimin ortalama durumunda veya değişkenliğinde onlarca yıl ya da daha uzun süre boyunca gerçekleşen değişiklikler" biçiminde tanımlanmaktadır. IPCC raporlarında da belirtildiği üzere Türkiye, iklim değişikliğine karşı en hassas bölgelerden biri olan Doğu Akdeniz havzasında yer almaktadır. İklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirmek, sektörel bazda iklim değişikliğine uyum ve mücadele faaliyetlerini desteklemek amacıyla havza, bölge ve il düzeyinde sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları geliştirilmiştir.
Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as... more Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as well as secondary equipment's such as Global Positioning System GPS/ Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). To determine the accurate data in GNSS, it is need to know Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) which cause to tropospheric zenith delay. Vice versa IWV could be calculate from zenith travel time delays from GPS signals data with atmospheric pressure and temperature of GPS site. IWV which is produced from radiosonde data generally use as reference to determine the accuracy of GPS data. Nowadays GNSS meteorology is very familiar in Geomatics engineering. Perceptible Water Vapour (PWV) or Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) or Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) are different use in different meteorological systems and they are calculate from meteorological satellite data, radar data and radiosonde data. Spatial and temporal fluctuatings of water vapour content in the lower atmosphere cause time delays in signals propagating from space to targets on the ground. Different measurement methods exist to estimate water vapour. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides continuous water vapour estimates. In this study, GNSS derived water vapour estimates are compared to radiosonde and radar observations. Statistical analysis of the differences between three data sets, GNSS, radar and radiosonde are summarized. In this study, it is intended to investigate relation between GNSS Ankara station's IWV, Ankara radiosonde station's IWV and Ankara Radar's VIL data. For this purpose, two term which are June 1 to 10 in 2010 and May 15 to 30 in 2015 are selected. These two term are consist of both dry and wet days. Data are obtained from NASA The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) for GNSS IWV data, NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for radiosonde IWV data and TSMS for radar VIL data. Radar make observation with its beam. Beam path is not goes strait ahead in atmosphere. It is goes like as curve which is suit to the world's roundness and when it crush to water droplet it turns back to RADAR antenna. The result of this, firstly if the droplet size is too small or moisture in atmosphere is in a vapour form such as in clear air RADAR may not be observed it. Secondly, due to RADAR beam shape is like curve it can not measure all layer moisture. So RADAR VIL values could not representative troposphere layer total moisture. To free from errors radiosonde values must be use with measurement points coordinates. If RADAR's value or meteorological satellite values use for comparing GNSS IWV values it is need to make a private study for this purpose. Stations geographic position IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) COMPARISON OF WATER VAPOUR ESTIMATES IN ANKARA, TURKEY IRD.P21 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for June 1 to 10 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for May 15 to 30 IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) CONCLUSION Comparing results are relation of GNSS and Radiosonde is quite good esp. during to precipitation and also Radar values get to closer to GNSS and Radiosonde during to precipitation. During to precipitation sky is covered by clouds and the water vapour distribute generally uniform in atmosphere esp. in stratiform type weather conditions. Causes of errors should be as follows; Satellite signal which come from satellite to directly GNSS station pass throughout troposphere and its effected by troposphere humidity as a result GNSS IWV representative of troposphere layer water vapour. GNSS observations are stationary observations. When radiosonde balloon is released it start to cruise freely in atmosphere and it's cruising depends on to winds in atmosphere and it can be go far away up to 300km in any directions. During to cruise while getting height it goes far away and also it collects data on its way. So it is naturally collect different values from stationary station.
In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall w... more In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall within the city and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools are used to make digital layer from products of satellite and Radar which are today's commonly used monitoring tools in Remote Sensing Method (RSM). Secondarily; it is intended to determine the relationship between surface rainfall measurements and remote sensing measurements which are obtained from satellite and radar. Finally; it is aimed to determine how urbanization is affected the distribution of rainfall over the city by examining these relationships on city base. It is proposed that results of this study can be primarily an input for city planners for correctly improving and planning of cities and also for reduction-prevention studies against to natural disasters which are related to the climate and especially depending on rainfall. Furthermore, it can be provided a base within the scope of coping studies which are made with the trilogy of prevention, mitigation and adaptation against to climate change that has become a problem in our century. For the study, precipitation events which are occurred in Ankara are examined on June 6 in the year 2010. For the date of June 6 in 2010, output of numerical prediction models, surface observations and Radar PPI data have been obtained and ECMWF model outputs, Radar PPI data and surface observations have been mapped in the GIS and analyzed. In the sample analysis it is observed that rainfall zones have moved according to the movement of the frontal system and they are not concentrated especially in the east parts of Ankara. In sampling dates, it is interesting to consider that the dust transportation along with frontal systems which are brings rainfall is observed in Atmospheric Dust Forecasting System maps. It is thought that the systems which are cause precipitation, topographical structure of the city and dust transportation from the Saharan Desert have been more effective in the formation of precipitation. GIS is important systems to prepare risk and mitigation maps for extreme events. Furthermore GIS can use to monitoring, preventive precaution and rescue planning in Disaster and Emergency Management Centre (DEMC) during a disaster situation. GIS can use different layer such as risk, actual situation, rod, hospital, etc. at same time. GIS can search and show possible best solution for DEMC studies. The issues, to use RADAR and Meteorological Models data in GIS is format of data that these data can not use directly in GIS systems. Due to this RADAR and models data can distribute to user standard format such as NetCDF or GIS readable format.
Ekstrem sıcaklık olaylarının uzun süreli değişimlerini anlamak, iklim değişikliğinin tespiti ve ö... more Ekstrem sıcaklık olaylarının uzun süreli değişimlerini anlamak, iklim değişikliğinin tespiti ve özelliklerinin anlaşılması için önemlidir. Bununla birlikte kentleşmeden ne kadar etkinin geldiği açık değildir. Bu çalışmada kent özelliğine sahip Ankara, İstanbul’dan Florya ile Göztepe ve İzmir olmak üzere dört iklim istasyonu ile kırsal özelliklere sahip Beypazarı, Kızılcahamam, Esenboğa Kireçburnu, Kumköy, Şile, Seferihisar ve Çeşme olmak üzere sekiz kırsal istasyon seçilmiştir. Nüfusu 100 binin altında olan yerler kırsal olarak belirlenmiştir. Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğünün 1971-2014 periyodunda ortalama minimum sıcaklık verileri ve trend analizleri için Mann-Kendall mertebe korelasyon istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Şehir istasyonu olarak seçilen istasyonların tamamında ve kırsal istasyon olarak belirlenen istasyonlarda, Kızılcahamam ve Beypazarı hariç, yıllık minimum sıcaklık ortalamaları trendlerinde önemli artışlar belirlenmiştir. Şehirleşme etkisinin belirlenebilmesi amacıyla, şehir-kırsal istasyon çiftleri oluşturulmuş ve minimum sıcaklık ortalamalarının farkları alınarak elde edilen serilerdeki eğilimler incelenmiştir. Minimum sıcaklık ortalamalarının farkları ile oluşturulan serilerin trendlerinde, İzmir istasyon çiftleri hariç, % 95 ve üzeri güven aralığında bir artış vardır. Understanding the long-term change of extreme temperature events is important to the detection and attribution of climate change. However, it’s unclear how much effect coming from the urbanization. In this study Ankara, Florya and Goztepe from Istanbul and Izmir were selected as a city station which shows the city characteristics and Beypazari, Kizilcahamam, Esenboga Kirecburnu, Kumkoy, Sile, Seferihisar and Cesme station were selected as rural stations which shows has rural characteristics. If the population less than 100 thousand it’s determined as rural area. Turkish State Meteorological Service’s mean minimum temperature data with the periods 1971-2014 and Mann-Kendall rank correlation statistics for trend analysis were used. All city stations and rural stations except Beypazari and Kizilcahamam have showed increasing trends in their mean minimum temperatures. And also stations couples were created between city and rural stations by taking the differences from their mean minimum temperature. These station couples’ data have also showed significant increasing trend with except Izmir’s station couples.
Özet Ayçiçeği, Türkiye'de bitkisel yağ sektörünün ham maddesi konumundadır. Üretim, yurtiçi tüket... more Özet Ayçiçeği, Türkiye'de bitkisel yağ sektörünün ham maddesi konumundadır. Üretim, yurtiçi tüketim için bile yeterli düzeyde değildir. Bu nedenle ülkemizde hem üretim alanlarının hem de verimin artırılması için çalışmalar yapılması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma ayçiçeği verimi ile iklim faktörleri arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemek ve iklim değişikliklerinin gelecek dönemlerde ayçiçeği verimi üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya koyabilmek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Araştırmada, Marmara Bölgesi'ndeki 10 il değerlendirilmiştir. Materyal olarak; 1985-2014 yıllarına ait ayçiçeği üretim verileri ile meteorolojik gözlem değerleri, 2016-2099 arası dönemi kapsayan HadGEM2-ES küresel modeli ve RCP8.5 senaryosu temelinde oluşturulan 20 km. çözünürlüklü iklim projeksiyonları verileri kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan iklim parametreleri; minimum sıcaklık <-5°C olan gün sayısı, aylık ortalama sıcaklık, maksimum sıcaklık > 35°C olan gün sayısı, aylık ortalama nisbi nem, ortalama nisbi nem > 70 olan gün sayısı, aylık toplam güneşlenme süresi ve aylık toplam yağıştır. Çalışmanın ilk kısmında; gözlem değerleri ve üretim verileri arasında tekli ve çoklu korelasyon analizleri ile en küçük kareler yöntemiyle doğrusal regresyon analizleri yapılmıştır. İkinci kısımda; oluşturulan regresyon denklemleri ile iklim projeksiyonu verileri kullanılarak gelecek dönemler (2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) için öngörülen iklim değişikliklerinin yağlık ayçiçeği verimi üzerine olası etkileri ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre iklim faktörlerinin verim üzerinde önemli bir belirleyici etmen olduğu belirlenmiştir. Verim tahmini analizlerine göre Marmara bölgesinin ayçiçeği yetiştiriciliği açısından olumsuz etkilenmesi öngörülmektedir. Abstract Sunflower is the raw material of vegetable oils sector in Turkey. Production is not sufficient even for domestic consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the projects to increase the yield and production areas. This study was carried out in order to identify the relationship between yield of sunflower and climate factors, also to determine the possible effects of the future climate changes on the sunflower yield. In the study, 10 provinces in the Marmara region were evaluated. Sunflower production values and meteorological data, which belong to years of 1985-2014, climate projections, with 20 km resolution, based on HadGEM2-ES Global Climate Model and RCP8.5 scenario that cover period of 2016-2099 were used as material. Climate parameters used in this study are number of days that minimum temperature below-5°C, monthly average temperature, number of days that maximum temperature above 35°C, monthly average relative humidity, number of days that average relative humidity above % 70, monthly total sunshine duration, monthly total precipitation. Firstly; single and multiple correlation analyses, the least-squares method with linear regression analyses were conducted between observation values and production data. Then, the potential impact of climate changes, that are projected for the future periods (2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099), on yield of sunflower have been put forward with using the generated high-rate regression equations and climate projection data. According to the results, it was determined that an important characteristic factor of climate factors on productivity. With reference to the yield prediction analyses, Marmara region will be negatively affected. Key Words: The Yield of Sunflower, HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5, The effects of climate change.
Ayçiçeği, Türkiye’de bitkisel yağ sektörünün ham maddesi konumundadır. Üretim, yurtiçi tüketim iç... more Ayçiçeği, Türkiye’de bitkisel yağ sektörünün ham maddesi konumundadır. Üretim, yurtiçi tüketim için bile yeterli düzeyde değildir. Bu nedenle ülkemizde hem üretim alanlarının hem de verimin artırılması için çalışmalar yapılması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma ayçiçeği verimi ile iklim faktörleri arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemek ve iklim değişikliklerinin gelecek dönemlerde ayçiçeği verimi üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya koyabilmek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Araştırmada, Marmara Bölgesi’ndeki 10 il değerlendirilmiştir. Materyal olarak; 1985-2014 yıllarına ait ayçiçeği üretim verileri ile meteorolojik gözlem değerleri, 2016-2099 arası dönemi kapsayan HadGEM2-ES küresel modeli ve RCP8.5 senaryosu temelinde oluşturulan 20 km. çözünürlüklü iklim projeksiyonları verileri kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan iklim parametreleri; minimum sıcaklık < -5°C olan gün sayısı, aylık ortalama sıcaklık, maksimum sıcaklık > 35°C olan gün sayısı, aylık ortalama nisbi nem, ortalama nisbi nem > 70 olan gün sayısı, aylık toplam güneşlenme süresi ve aylık toplam yağıştır. Çalışmanın ilk kısmında; gözlem değerleri ve üretim verileri arasında tekli ve çoklu korelasyon analizleri ile en küçük kareler yöntemiyle doğrusal regresyon analizleri yapılmıştır. İkinci kısımda; oluşturulan regresyon denklemleri ile iklim projeksiyonu verileri kullanılarak gelecek dönemler (2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) için öngörülen iklim değişikliklerinin yağlık ayçiçeği verimi üzerine olası etkileri ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre iklim faktörlerinin verim üzerinde önemli bir belirleyici etmen olduğu belirlenmiştir. Verim tahmini analizlerine göre Marmara bölgesinin ayçiçeği yetiştiriciliği açısından olumsuz etkilenmesi öngörülmektedir.
Sunflower is the raw material of vegetable oils sector in Turkey. Production is not sufficient ev... more Sunflower is the raw material of vegetable oils sector in Turkey. Production is not sufficient even for domestic consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the projects to increase the yield and production areas. This study was carried out in order to identify the relationship between yield of sunflower and climate factors, also to determine the possible effects of the future climate changes on the sunflower yield. In the study, 10 provinces in Marmara region were evaluated. The following materials were used for this study; sunflower production values and meteorological data for the years of 1985-2014, climate projections that are based on HadGEM2-ES Global Climate Model with 20 km resolution, and RCP8.5 scenario that covers the period of 2016-2099. Climate parameters used in this study are number of days that minimum temperature below-5°C, monthly average temperature, number of days that maximum temperature above 35°C, monthly average relative humidity, number of days that average relative humidity above % 70, monthly total sunshine duration, monthly total precipitation. Firstly; single and multiple correlation analyses, the least-squares method with linear regression analyses were conducted between observation values and production data. Then, the potential impact of climate changes, that are projected for the future periods (2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099), on yield of sunflower have been put forward with by using the generated high-rate regression equations and climate projection data. According to the results, it was determined that there is an important characteristic effect of climate factors on productivity With reference to the yield prediction analyses, Marmara region will be negatively affected.
Uploads
Papers by Mesut Demircan
Understanding the long-term change of extreme temperature events is important to the detection and attribution of climate change. However, it’s unclear how much effect coming from the urbanization. In this study Ankara, Florya and Goztepe from Istanbul and Izmir were selected as a city station which shows the city characteristics and Beypazari, Kizilcahamam, Esenboga Kirecburnu, Kumkoy, Sile, Seferihisar and Cesme station were selected as rural stations which shows has rural characteristics. If the population less than 100 thousand it’s determined as rural area. Turkish State Meteorological Service’s mean minimum temperature data with the periods 1971-2014 and Mann-Kendall rank correlation statistics for trend analysis were used. All city stations and rural stations except Beypazari and Kizilcahamam have showed increasing trends in their mean minimum temperatures. And also stations couples were created between city and rural stations by taking the differences from their mean minimum temperature. These station couples’ data have also showed significant increasing trend with except Izmir’s station couples.