Papers by Prof. Mohammad Tarique
International Journal of Statistics and Economics; , 2018
High inflation is widely believed to hamper economic growth and is harmful to social justice, the... more High inflation is widely believed to hamper economic growth and is harmful to social justice, thereby lending credence to emergence of low and stable inflation as a key objective of economic policy. India witnesses a rise in inflation during 1970s and 1980s due to various demand and supply side factors. Since then inflation has always remained a debateable issue among researchers and policy makers regarding its causes and management. Thus, the Present study provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics and examine the nature of longrun and shortrun relationship among the variables in India for the period 1970-2015. To this end, the study applies auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model to determine the direction of causality between the variables. The bounds test results indicate that there is a meaningful longrun relationship among the variables when inflation is considered as dependent variable. We find that money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and real output has a significant impact on the inflationary process in India both in the shortrun and longrun. The error correction term is found to be negative and significant which reinforces the long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The paper concludes that inflation in India is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors and consequently, study comes out with some important policy implications.
International Journal of Ecology & Development , 2018
Oil has been a dominant source of energy especially in developing countries. It is believed that ... more Oil has been a dominant source of energy especially in developing countries. It is believed that consumption of oil in developing countries, in general and India in particular, has been accelerated by economic growth and development. To this end, this article examines the causal nexus between economic growth and oil consumption in case of India, using autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing approach. This study is based on annual time series data for the period 1971-2015. The result of bounds test reveals the co-movement of the variables under consideration, in the long run. Both the long-run and short-run coefficients of the ARDL representation hold good which indicates that consumption of oil spurs economic growth in India. The statistically significant error correction term (ECT) further suggests that the long run causality running from oil consumption to economic growth, in case of India. Wald statistics also found evidence of one sided short run causality from oil consumption to growth. Therefore, study supports the growth hypothesis; where the consumption of oil contributes to economic growth significantly. Consequently, it can be concluded that an energy policy, which reduces oil consumption puts a slight constraint on gross domestic product growth i.e., shortage of oil supply can obstruct economic growth.
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM); e-ISSN: 2278-487X, p-ISSN: 2319-7668. Volume 20, Issue 1. Ver. I ; p: 87-98, 2018
Real rural wages have increased since 2007 and food inflation remained around 9 percent during 20... more Real rural wages have increased since 2007 and food inflation remained around 9 percent during 2007-2013. So the present study looks at the trends in rural wages and its linkage with food prices during July 2006 to October 2013.Using Co-integration approach followed by Granger Causality based Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the paper empirically tests the dynamic inter-linkage between WPI food prices and rural wages by using time series monthly data. The present study employs Johansen and Juselius Co-integration approach to analyse the long run association among the variables followed by the VECM to check the direction and causality between rural wages and food pricesin short-run and long-run. Cointegration results show that there is at least one co-integration equation among the variables under. The normalized Co-integrating equation reveals that both food prices and rural wages of unskilled labourers have a significant positive effect on agricultural wages. 1 percent increase in unskilled wages of non-agricultural workers will lead to 1.01 percent increase in farm wages. Likewise, 1 percent increase in Food prices leads to 0.30 percent rise in agricultural wages. VECM indicates that all the coefficients of all the three error terms were found to be negative in sign and statistically significant at 5 % and 1% level of significance which implies that there is long run causality between the variables with feedback mechanism. We also tested short run causality based on Fstatistics calculated by the 5 th order VEC model by using Wald statistics between food prices and rural wages .The Wald test shows there is at least one way causation among the variables.
Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance; Vol. 8, No. 1, P: 1-17, 2018
Controlling inflation is one of the biggest challenge faced by macroeconomic policymakers in Indi... more Controlling inflation is one of the biggest challenge faced by macroeconomic policymakers in India. Present study is an attempt to identify the determinants of inflation and examine the nature of cointegration among the variables in India. Against this backdrop, the study utilized annual time series data from 1970 till 2015, and employed both the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and the Error Correction Method (ECM) to investigate the long-run and the short-run relationship among the variables. The ARDL bounds test results reveals the existence of longrun association among the variables when price is a dependent variable. Granger Causality based Error Correction Model also confirms both the longrun and shortrun causality running from all the explanatory variables towards price. Further, the coefficient of error correction term with negative sign remains statistically significant with approximately 65 percent speed of adjustment to restore the equilibrium in the long run, which shows the quick convergence. The outcomes of the impulse response functions (IRFs) test nearly support the findings of the present study. CUSUM and CUSUM-Q plots suggests the stability of coefficients estimated for both short run and long run model. Finally, some policy implications pertaining to the empirical findings are also discussed.
Asian Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities; Vol. 7, No. 9, September 2017, pp. 35-48., 2017
Poverty is an important concern for most of the developing countries. Both the agriculture and no... more Poverty is an important concern for most of the developing countries. Both the agriculture and nonagriculture sector plays an important role in reducing poverty. But in case of agrarian economy like India, the contribution of agriculture in poverty reduction is dominant since the majority of poor people are relied on this sector for their sustenance. Although economic growth leads to poverty reduction but the sector mix of growth matters substantively. It is always a tough job for policy makers to quantify the contribution made by each sector.
Philosophical Readings XIII.4 (2021), pp. 2287-2298., 2021
In the recent past, financial inclusion has emerged as one of the most effective tool to combat p... more In the recent past, financial inclusion has emerged as one of the most effective tool to combat poverty. Despite efforts by the govt, gender wise disparity persists in financial inclusion. Evidences indicate that education can play an important role in financial inclusion and penetration. The present research is an attempt to look into these facts empirically under PMJDY scheme in Aligarh district. The results have been obtained by using descriptive statistics and two way between groups ANOVA taking multi dimensional poverty as dependent variable and gender & literacy as independent categorical variables. The findings of the study reveal that disparities in educational attainment are one of the causes of differences in financial literacy and penetration among PMJDY account holders. Similar differences are also being observed between male and female account holders. However, the study doesn't confirm the presence gender wise differential on multi dimensional poverty among PMJDY account holders. Further, no interaction effect is obtained between gender and literacy on MPI score but literacy level has significant impact on MPI level.
Saudi Journal of Economics and Finance; Open Access, 2020
Indian planners since independence have tried to put financial inclusion at the centre of their p... more Indian planners since independence have tried to put financial inclusion at the centre of their policy. But despite nationalization of banks, establishment of cooperative societies, and many other such policies have not been able to substantially improve the livelihood of the poor. In view of pathetic financial coverage over a period of time, PMJDY was launched in 2014 as a comprehensive plan based on six pillars viz. Universal Access to Banking Facilities, Providing Basic Banking Accounts, Financial Literacy, Credit Guarantee Fund, Micro Insurance and Pension Scheme. The present study is an attempt to look into the financial literacy, financial penetration, and poverty status of PMJDY account holders in Aligarh district. The study also investigates gender wise and caste wise differential among PMJDY account holders. The study is based on primary data for which a sample of 100 households was taken on a random basis. The sample was collected from three villages of Lodha and Atrauli blocks of Aligarh district. The results show a significant gender and caste wise differential with regard to transaction by self, awareness about DBT, savings, and receiving & activating Rupay debit card. Further, there exists caste wise but not gender wise differential because of motivation/reason behind opening an account in PMJDY and agreement on fulfillment of government's objectives. More than 80 percent of the respondents strongly agree/agree with the notion that they opened PMJDY account in anticipation that Rs.15 lakhs will be transferred into their account as promised by the present government. This simply shows the degree of political innocence of poor rural masses. Gender wise analysis clarifies that there exist a significant difference between male and female households in terms of multi dimensionally poor population but not on account of average intensity of deprivation. Dimension wise significant differential is present on education and living standard dimension but not on health dimension. Taking general category as base category, the MPI is 70 percent higher for OBCs and 230 percent larger for SCs. This shows caste wise large disparity on poverty front among PMJDY beneficiaries.
Indian Journal of Economics and Development; Volume 18 No. 4, 2022
Objectives of the Society i. To promote awareness on the issues relating to economic development,... more Objectives of the Society i. To promote awareness on the issues relating to economic development, ii. To promote social and ethical values fostering growth and development, iii. To promote economic prosperity and serve as a tool to create the consciousness for development, iv. To conduct research and publish reports on economic issues, v. To organize seminars, symposia, workshops to discuss the economic problems, and vi. To offer consultancy, liaison and services as a facilitator.
Sdmimd; Journal of Management, 2022
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) considered as a component of investment is needed by India to acc... more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) considered as a component of investment is needed by India to accomplish the
ambition behind economic reforms and speed up the growth of the economy. The inflow of FDI in India initially
was low due to regulatory policy framework but there is a sharp rise in investment flows from 2005 onwards as
the new policy has broadened. The purpose of this paper is to look for evidence regarding the precise relationship
between FDI inflows and employment in service sector of India. The used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) model explains long run and short run relationship between FDI inflows and employment in service
sector. The empirical results confirm that though negative relationship exists between FDI and employment
in service sector but it is not statistically significant. According to the findings, FDI introduces skilled skewed
technical changes to the host country, increasing demand for highly skilled employees. Because India’s labour
force is relatively unskilled, FDI in the service sector fails to provide jobs for the country’s rising labour force.
The ARDL results also confirm the existence of the long run co-integration between FDI and employment in
service sector. The finding shows that the stock of the FDI is a significant factor for Indian service sector
Strad Research; ISSN: 0039-2049; VOLUME 8, ISSUE 10, 2021, 2021
Foreign direct investment (FDI) consider as a component of investment is needed by India to achie... more Foreign direct investment (FDI) consider as a component of investment is needed by India to achieve the economic reforms and maintains the speed of the growth of the economy. The inflow of FDI in India initially was low due to regulatory policy framework but there is a sharp rise in investment flows from 2005 towards because of the new policy has broadened. The relationship between FDI and economic growth in host nation remain the main question in economic literature and mainly for the countries which are suffering from the unemployment problems and lack of new technological progress. This article analyses the linkage between FDI and economic growth using simple OLS and ARDL model of long run and short run relationship from the period 1991 to 2017. We use OLS technique to find out the relationship between FDI and economic growth and the ARDL technique to check the long run relationship between the variables. The empirical results confirm that there strong relationship exist between the variables. The ARDL results also confirm the existence of the long run co-integration between FDI and economic growth. The finding shows that the stock of the FDI is a significant factor for the economic growth for Indian economy.
Future Business Journal, Springer Open Access, 2023
The fund allocation in agricultural sector in India is heavily tilted toward input subsidies prov... more The fund allocation in agricultural sector in India is heavily tilted toward input subsidies provision; however, researchers seem to favor investment expenditure instead. The present paper seeks to compare the usefulness of input subsidies as compared to investment with regard to agricultural productivity so that policy makers hit the right tool and avoid less productive state expenditure. We investigated a total of four regression models using autoregressive and distributed lag cointegration in a time series framework covering period from 1983 to 2019. The first model considers all input subsidies in aggregate form, and the rest three models take input subsidies in disaggregate forms, namely fertilizer subsidy, irrigation subsidy and power subsidy, respectively. It is observed from the results that input subsidies still contribute more than what public investment does to agricultural productivity. It is also found that power subsidy is the most effective component of input subsidies followed by fertilizer subsidy. Hence, government expenditure on input subsidies is justified on the ground that it ensures all farmers to have access to affordable agricultural inputs. Targeted subsidies combined with adequate investment in agricultural infrastructure could deliver long-term agricultural development in India.
Empirical Economics Letters, 21 (2), ISSN 1681 8997, 2022
This paper aims to ascertain the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in Iraq. Time series dat... more This paper aims to ascertain the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in Iraq. Time series data from 1990 to 2018 were utilised. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to estimate the short and long term coefficients. Unemployment has a long-run equilibrium relationship with government spending and other determinants of economic growth. The findings reveal that fiscal policy has a negligible effect on unemployment,. Foreign assistance, capital formation, and agricultural output all contribute to unemployment. As a result, fiscal policy should be redesigned to strengthen the economy's ability to create jobs.
Purpose-The main objective of the present study is to figure out the effect of agricultural devel... more Purpose-The main objective of the present study is to figure out the effect of agricultural development on environmental pollution in the Indian context over the period 1970 to 2018. The study also tests the applicability of pollution haven hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach-To begin with, the authors test the stationarity of the variables by using the DF-GLS and KPSS tests. To examine the relationship between agricultural development and carbon emissions, the study applies nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag cointegration test developed by Shin et al. (2014). The study also applies Wald test to test the asymmetry between agriculture and environmental pollution. Findings-The findings of this study indicate that agricultural development in India is good for carbon mitigation in the long run whereas energy consumption degrades the environment. The findings document the existence of an asymmetric association between agricultural development and environmental pollution. Furthermore, the results did not find any presence of pollution haven hypothesis for India. Originality/value-This is the only empirical work that assesses the contribution of agricultural sector to carbon mitigation in the Indian context. The novelty of the study is further ensured by the very nature that it is the first study that examines the effect of agricultural sector on environment in an asymmetric configuration.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management © Emerald Publishing Limited 1750-6220, 2020
Purpose-The genesis of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of "grow now clean later" has led to a s... more Purpose-The genesis of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of "grow now clean later" has led to a substantial deterioration of local as well as the global environment. India has not been spared of this malaise and accounts for the third-largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world. Thus, the present study revisits the curvilinear relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in case of India over the period of 1971-2014. Design/methodology/approach-Dickey-Fuller generalised least square (DF-GLS) test developed by Elliott et al. is used to ensure that none of the variables is I(2). The study applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds estimation technique to test for the existence of cointegration among variables and estimate long-run and short-run parameters. The study also applies the Bai-Perron structural break test with unknown break date to determine the threshold point. The study further uses the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality test to check the direction of causality between variables. Findings-The ARDL bounds estimation technique confirms the cointegration among variables. The longrun coefficients of energy consumption, economic growth and financial development are found to have an adverse impact on environmental quality. The results also validate the existence of conventional EKC hypothesis. Bai-Perron structural break test, along with t-test and scatter graph, shows that inverted Ushaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth holds true. The VECM-based causality results support "growth hypothesis" both in the long run and short run. Research limitations/implications-This study refrained from considering a variety of variables, as the main intention of the study is to investigate whether any threshold or turnaround point exists for India. The future studies should consider a new set of variables (e.g. population, corruption index, social indicators, political scenario, energy research and development expenditures, foreign capital inflows, public investment towards alternate energy exploration, etc.) in the estimation of EKC hypothesis. Practical implications-The results validate the existence of conventional EKC hypothesis. Thereby the study argues that instead of being a threat to environmental quality, economic growth is observed to generate JEL classification-C32, Q43, Q53, Q56 The authors thank three anonymous referees of this journal, for useful inputs. The authors would also like to thank Editor Dr Prasanta Dey for editorial assistance as well as inputs on an earlier version of the paper. Disclosure statement: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. Funding: This research has received no specific funding. Environmental pollution and economic growth
Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal © Emerald Publishing Limited 1477-7835, 2023
Purpose-The paper assesses the moderating function of institutions in the financial development a... more Purpose-The paper assesses the moderating function of institutions in the financial development and environmental nexus covering India for the time period 1980-2019. Design/methodology/approach-Deviating from extant literature which has mostly used emissions of major greenhouse gasses as a measure of environmental quality, the present study uses a broad measure of environmental quality called ecological footprint (EFP). Financial development is measured using a robust proxy recently introduced by International Monetary Fund (IMF). This index is multifaceted and covers three broad dimensions of financial sector in terms of depth, efficiency and access of both financial institutions and markets, thus outperforming the exclusively bank-based measures used in the past literature. Further institutional quality index is generated using the data from international country risk guide. Finally, autoregressive distributed lag model is used for the empirical estimation of short-run and long-run results. Findings-The empirical estimates reveal that financial development and institutional quality are good for long-run environmental sustainability of India, whereas economic growth degrades the environment in the long-run. The results also attest to the existence of pollution heaven hypothesis in India for long run. Furthermore, regarding the moderating role of institutions, the study reveals that institutional quality complements financial development in affecting environment in the short run. While as, in the long run, they play a substitutive role whereby sound institutions cover-up the inefficiencies in financial system. Research limitations/implications-First, the paper uses the index of financial development developed by the IMF in order to quantify the level of financial development in India overtime. The index is based on three key dimensions of financial development such as the depth, efficiency and access of both financial institutions and markets. However, the index completely neglects the role of financial stability in determining financial development. Thus, future studies that are based on this IMF introduced index of financial development should incorporate the stability dimension to it. Second, this empirical study focused exclusively on India and employed aggregate EFP to measure environmental quality. Further studies can complement the content of this research by conducting similar studies to capture country-specific characteristics of other emerging economies and also scrutinize the impact on the six sub-indices of EFP. Practical implications-The results of the study reveal that the effect of financial development, and institutions on ecological footprint is sensitive to time dynamics. Moreover, the findings offer important policy implications to government and policy makers in India on how to curb the menace of environmental degradation. Originality/value-The paper addresses the gap in the literature by examining the moderating role of institutional quality in the financial development and ecological footprint nexus in India. Furthermore, the authors employ a robust proxy for both financial development and environmental quality unlike extant studies on India.
Journal of Advances and Scholarly Researches in Allied Education, 2018
ABSTRACT
A.M.U. ALIGARH.
From a situation where India had to import food grains for feeding i... more ABSTRACT
A.M.U. ALIGARH.
From a situation where India had to import food grains for feeding its population in 1960s, the country
has achieved self-sufficiency in producing rice and wheat. As far as pulses are concerned India is still too
far to fulfill the mounting demand of pulses. 'Green Revolution' initiative in late 1960s resulted in rapid
expansion of agricultural land and boost in agricultural production with the striking feature of double
cropping. This revolution resulted in record grain output in 1970s. In case of pulses no promising
measures had taken place for boosting pulse cultivation in the decades of 1960s and 1970s. However, in
1980s importance of pulses came under the ambit of mission programs and the production of pulses has
increased by 34 per cent from 1980-81 to 1990-91. Further, in India ,1990s decade witnessed the
problems such as regional imbalances, depletion of ground level water mainly in northern part, storage
and distribution at state level due to giving much importance mainly to two crops paddy and wheat and
neglecting other valuable crops such as coarse cereals and pulses which is low water resistant crops .
Pulses contain a considerable amount of protein content that‟s why in India it is considered as poor man‟s
meat as majority of population is vegetarian. The present paper tries to throw light on the importance of
pulses cultivation in India and it also examines the pattern of growth in area, production and yield of
pulses in India. It has also tried to find out the ways to explore the potential of pulses in major pulse
producing states in order to expand its output. The time series data for the period 1950 -51 to 2011-12
regarding the area, production and yield of pulses has been used to calculate decadal growth rates,
Coefficient of Variation and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII).
KEYWORDS: Pulses Production, Growth Pattern and Instability Index.
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Papers by Prof. Mohammad Tarique
ambition behind economic reforms and speed up the growth of the economy. The inflow of FDI in India initially
was low due to regulatory policy framework but there is a sharp rise in investment flows from 2005 onwards as
the new policy has broadened. The purpose of this paper is to look for evidence regarding the precise relationship
between FDI inflows and employment in service sector of India. The used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) model explains long run and short run relationship between FDI inflows and employment in service
sector. The empirical results confirm that though negative relationship exists between FDI and employment
in service sector but it is not statistically significant. According to the findings, FDI introduces skilled skewed
technical changes to the host country, increasing demand for highly skilled employees. Because India’s labour
force is relatively unskilled, FDI in the service sector fails to provide jobs for the country’s rising labour force.
The ARDL results also confirm the existence of the long run co-integration between FDI and employment in
service sector. The finding shows that the stock of the FDI is a significant factor for Indian service sector
A.M.U. ALIGARH.
From a situation where India had to import food grains for feeding its population in 1960s, the country
has achieved self-sufficiency in producing rice and wheat. As far as pulses are concerned India is still too
far to fulfill the mounting demand of pulses. 'Green Revolution' initiative in late 1960s resulted in rapid
expansion of agricultural land and boost in agricultural production with the striking feature of double
cropping. This revolution resulted in record grain output in 1970s. In case of pulses no promising
measures had taken place for boosting pulse cultivation in the decades of 1960s and 1970s. However, in
1980s importance of pulses came under the ambit of mission programs and the production of pulses has
increased by 34 per cent from 1980-81 to 1990-91. Further, in India ,1990s decade witnessed the
problems such as regional imbalances, depletion of ground level water mainly in northern part, storage
and distribution at state level due to giving much importance mainly to two crops paddy and wheat and
neglecting other valuable crops such as coarse cereals and pulses which is low water resistant crops .
Pulses contain a considerable amount of protein content that‟s why in India it is considered as poor man‟s
meat as majority of population is vegetarian. The present paper tries to throw light on the importance of
pulses cultivation in India and it also examines the pattern of growth in area, production and yield of
pulses in India. It has also tried to find out the ways to explore the potential of pulses in major pulse
producing states in order to expand its output. The time series data for the period 1950 -51 to 2011-12
regarding the area, production and yield of pulses has been used to calculate decadal growth rates,
Coefficient of Variation and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII).
KEYWORDS: Pulses Production, Growth Pattern and Instability Index.
ambition behind economic reforms and speed up the growth of the economy. The inflow of FDI in India initially
was low due to regulatory policy framework but there is a sharp rise in investment flows from 2005 onwards as
the new policy has broadened. The purpose of this paper is to look for evidence regarding the precise relationship
between FDI inflows and employment in service sector of India. The used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) model explains long run and short run relationship between FDI inflows and employment in service
sector. The empirical results confirm that though negative relationship exists between FDI and employment
in service sector but it is not statistically significant. According to the findings, FDI introduces skilled skewed
technical changes to the host country, increasing demand for highly skilled employees. Because India’s labour
force is relatively unskilled, FDI in the service sector fails to provide jobs for the country’s rising labour force.
The ARDL results also confirm the existence of the long run co-integration between FDI and employment in
service sector. The finding shows that the stock of the FDI is a significant factor for Indian service sector
A.M.U. ALIGARH.
From a situation where India had to import food grains for feeding its population in 1960s, the country
has achieved self-sufficiency in producing rice and wheat. As far as pulses are concerned India is still too
far to fulfill the mounting demand of pulses. 'Green Revolution' initiative in late 1960s resulted in rapid
expansion of agricultural land and boost in agricultural production with the striking feature of double
cropping. This revolution resulted in record grain output in 1970s. In case of pulses no promising
measures had taken place for boosting pulse cultivation in the decades of 1960s and 1970s. However, in
1980s importance of pulses came under the ambit of mission programs and the production of pulses has
increased by 34 per cent from 1980-81 to 1990-91. Further, in India ,1990s decade witnessed the
problems such as regional imbalances, depletion of ground level water mainly in northern part, storage
and distribution at state level due to giving much importance mainly to two crops paddy and wheat and
neglecting other valuable crops such as coarse cereals and pulses which is low water resistant crops .
Pulses contain a considerable amount of protein content that‟s why in India it is considered as poor man‟s
meat as majority of population is vegetarian. The present paper tries to throw light on the importance of
pulses cultivation in India and it also examines the pattern of growth in area, production and yield of
pulses in India. It has also tried to find out the ways to explore the potential of pulses in major pulse
producing states in order to expand its output. The time series data for the period 1950 -51 to 2011-12
regarding the area, production and yield of pulses has been used to calculate decadal growth rates,
Coefficient of Variation and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII).
KEYWORDS: Pulses Production, Growth Pattern and Instability Index.