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Prairies 45% 55% 50% ± 5% CPC 29% 38% 34% ± 5% LPC 9% 16% 12% ± 4% NDP 338Canada federal vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Prairies, 28 federal districts 19 [15-21] CPC 8 [5-12] LPC 1  [0-3] NDP 338Canada seat projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Federal vote projection | Prairies

LPC 34% ± 5% CPC 50% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Prairies 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 10% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2026-01-11

Federal seat projection | Prairies

LPC 8 [5-12] CPC 19 [15-21] NDP 1 [0-3] Seat projection | Prairies 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 15 LPC 11 NDP 2 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 17 LPC 9 NDP 2 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 17 LPC 9 NDP 2 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2026-01-11

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List of districts | Prairies
Latest update: January 11, 2026

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Grant Jackson
C CPC safe
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC leaning
Colin Reynolds
C Toss up CPC/NDP
Raquel Dancho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
Branden Leslie
C CPC safe
Ted Falk
C CPC safe
Dan Mazier
C CPC safe
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
C CPC safe
Leah Gazan
N NDP likely
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
L LPC safe
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC likely
C CPC safe
C CPC safe
L LPC safe
C CPC safe
Randy Hoback
C CPC safe
Warren Steinley
C CPC leaning
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
Kevin Waugh
C CPC leaning
Corey Tochor
C CPC leaning
Brad Redekopp
C CPC safe
C CPC safe
C CPC safe
Cathay Wagantall
C CPC safe