New Democratic Party

Latest update: January 11, 2026

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

	Districts and MPs	Current party	Projection
1.	Edmonton Strathcona Heather McPherson	N	NDP safe
2.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan	N	NDP safe
3.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Alexandre Boulerice	N	NDP safe
4.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns	N	NDP likely
5.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies	N	NDP likely
6.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan	N	NDP likely
7.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky	L	NDP likely
8.	Nunavut Lori Idlout	N	NDP leaning
9.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble	C	NDP leaning
10.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana	L	NDP leaning
11.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
12.	Skeena—Bulkley Valley Ellis Ross	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
13.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
14.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
15.	Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
16.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds	C	Toss up CPC/NDP
17.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy	L	LPC leaning
18.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand	L	LPC leaning
19.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron	B	BQ likely
20.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo	C	CPC likely
21.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis	C	CPC likely
22.	Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi	L	LPC likely
23.	Davenport Julie Dzerowicz	L	LPC likely
24.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang	L	Toss up LPC/CPC
25.	Victoria Will Greaves	L	LPC safe
26.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp	C	CPC safe
27.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie Steven Guilbeault	L	LPC safe
28.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner	L	Toss up LPC/CPC