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Vancouver Centre

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Hedy Fry
British Columbia
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 49% ± 7% 42.3% 40.7% 55.2% CPC 30% ± 6% 19.6% 21.9% 30.3% NDP 17% ± 5% 23.5% 30.3% 12.6% GPC 3% ± 3% 12.3% 3.8% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.3% 3.3% 0.4%

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338Canada Vancouver Centre projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Vancouver-Centre


Vancouver Centre 42% 57% 49% ± 7% LPC 24% 37% 30% ± 6% CPC 12% 22% 17% ± 5% NDP 0% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Centre >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Centre

LPC 49% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 6% NDP 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 55% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 51% CPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 51% CPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 49% CPC 31% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 49% CPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 49% CPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Vancouver Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11