logo
Canada
Canada flag

Surrey Centre

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Randeep Sarai
British Columbia
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Surrey Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 44% ± 8% 38.4% 44.6% 48.0% CPC 43% ± 8% 24.3% 20.7% 43.2% NDP 9% ± 5% 27.9% 27.6% 6.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.6%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


Canada flag

338Canada Surrey Centre projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Surrey-Centre


Surrey Centre 36% 52% 44% ± 8% LPC 35% 50% 43% ± 8% CPC 5% 14% 9% ± 5% NDP LPC 2025 48.0% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Centre 60%▲ LPC 40%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Centre

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 2% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Surrey Centre

LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2026-01-11