logo
Canada
Canada flag

South Surrey—White Rock

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Ernie Klassen
British Columbia
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | South Surrey—White Rock


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 47% ± 7% 37.4% 38.9% 50.5% CPC 45% ± 7% 41.9% 42.4% 45.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 11.6% 14.8% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.5% 3.9% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


Canada flag

338Canada South Surrey—White Rock projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Surrey-Sud—White Rock


South Surrey—White Rock 40% 54% 47% ± 7% LPC 38% 53% 45% ± 7% CPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 50.5% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Surrey—White Rock 59%▲ LPC 41%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 47% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | South Surrey—White Rock 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 46% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2026-01-11