logo
Canada
Canada flag

Richmond Centre—Marpole

Latest update: January 11, 2026
C
MP: Chak Au
British Columbia
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Richmond Centre—Marpole


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 49% ± 8% 45.4% 35.5% 49.6% LPC 41% ± 8% 27.0% 38.6% 44.7% NDP 7% ± 4% 14.2% 20.4% 4.4% GPC 2% ± 2% 5.7% 3.1% 0.9%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading…


Canada flag

338Canada Richmond Centre—Marpole projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Richmond-Centre—Marpole


Richmond Centre—Marpole 41% 57% 49% ± 8% CPC 34% 49% 41% ± 8% LPC 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 49.6% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond Centre—Marpole 88%▼ CPC 12%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Richmond Centre—Marpole 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 51% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 51% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 51% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 51% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Richmond Centre—Marpole

LPC 12% CPC 88% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-11