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North Island—Powell River

Latest update: January 11, 2026
C
MP: Aaron Gunn
British Columbia
Toss up CPC/NDP

Recent electoral history | North Island—Powell River


2019 2021 2025 Projection NDP 38% ± 7% 37.5% 39.5% 32.6% CPC 35% ± 6% 33.4% 36.2% 38.7% LPC 22% ± 5% 13.2% 13.3% 26.2% GPC 3% ± 3% 13.8% 5.9% 1.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.6% 4.6% 0.4%

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338Canada North Island—Powell River projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for North Island—Powell River


North Island—Powell River 30% 45% 38% ± 7% NDP 29% 42% 35% ± 6% CPC 17% 28% 22% ± 5% LPC 1% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2025 38.7% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Island—Powell River 67%▲ NDP 33%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | North Island—Powell River

LPC 22% ± 5% CPC 35% ± 6% NDP 38% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | North Island—Powell River 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 53% NDP 24% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 53% NDP 24% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% NDP 25% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 39% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 38% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 38% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 39% NDP 35% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 38% NDP 35% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 38% NDP 36% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | North Island—Powell River

LPC <1% CPC 33% NDP 67% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 85% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 83% NDP 17% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 67% NDP 32% LPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 56% NDP 43% LPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 57% NDP 42% LPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 64% NDP 35% LPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 78% NDP 22% LPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 74% NDP 26% LPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 64% NDP 36% LPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 63% CPC 37% LPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2026-01-11