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Kelowna

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Stephen Fuhr
British Columbia
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Kelowna


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 47% ± 7% 43.0% 42.3% 46.9% LPC 45% ± 7% 32.6% 26.2% 48.8% NDP 5% ± 4% 14.5% 21.2% 3.3% GPC 2% ± 2% 7.6% 3.0% 1.0% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.9% 7.3% 0.0%

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338Canada Kelowna projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Kelowna


Kelowna 39% 54% 47% ± 7% CPC 38% 53% 45% ± 7% LPC 2% 9% 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 48.8% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kelowna 58%▼ CPC 42%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kelowna

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kelowna 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Kelowna

LPC 42% CPC 58% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-01-11