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Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

Latest update: January 11, 2026
C
MP: Mel Arnold
British Columbia
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 51% ± 7% 46.3% 45.0% 52.2% LPC 36% ± 7% 22.7% 16.6% 39.0% NDP 8% ± 4% 17.8% 25.0% 5.5% GPC 4% ± 3% 10.7% 5.1% 2.4% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.2% 8.2% 0.9%

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338Canada Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies


Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies 44% 58% 51% ± 7% CPC 29% 42% 36% ± 7% LPC 4% 12% 8% ± 4% NDP 1% 8% 4% ± 3% GPC CPC 2025 52.2% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 51% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 52% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 53% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 54% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 54% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 54% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11