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Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Stephanie McLean
British Columbia
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 44% ± 7% 17.7% 21.9% 49.3% CPC 28% ± 6% 18.8% 21.0% 28.7% NDP 23% ± 6% 34.7% 43.2% 18.6% GPC 4% ± 4% 26.3% 8.9% 2.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.6% 4.6% 0.0%

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338Canada Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 37% 51% 44% ± 7% LPC 22% 34% 28% ± 6% CPC 17% 29% 23% ± 6% NDP 1% 8% 4% ± 4% GPC LPC 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 28% ± 6% NDP 23% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 29% GPC 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 71% NDP 15% LPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 73% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 75% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11